Week 13 Observations
I don’t have a lot to say about this week. My ATS picks were bad again — it’s very strange to go 5-0, 4-1, 1-4, 1-4. With five games there are 32 possibly ways it could go each week.
There’s only one way to go 5-0, five ways to go 4-1, five ways to go 1-4 and one way to go 0-5. But there are 10 ways to go 3-2 and 10 more to go 2-3. So when you have a mediocre year, you typically have a ton of 3-2s and 2-3s. But my Normal picks have only had three 3-2/2-3 weeks all year. The other 10 are five 1-4s, three 4-1s, one 4-0-1 and one 5-0.
The odds of getting 10 or more out of 13 weeks without a 3-2 or 2-3 record are less than 1 in 200. I’m not sure what the takeaway is, other than that it’s strange.
I have DK Metcalf and Christian Watson in three (of five) leagues each, and both in two of them, along with De’Von Achane. Thanks for the monster weeks after I was already drawing dead, assholes.
I have Chris Godwin in three leagues too, but Baker Mayfield only has eyes for Mike Evans. You might argue Godwin was playing hurt, but then explain the handoff for a 19-yard rushing TD, his only points on the day.
I watched the first half of Eagles-Niners. Jalen Hurts had years to throw and wouldn’t get rid of the ball. I might take Dak Prescott over him SU in real life.
The win probability stats that flash on your screen are peak midwit. There are no precise probabilities for unique one-off events. An NFL game isn’t a blackjack hand.
The Colts got a blocked punt TD, went for two and had the try returned for two. It was history’s first four-point TD.
FFS Bill Belichick, you were once a legend! Kick the field goal with six minutes left and cover the fucking spread!
Tyreek Hill is a top-three all-time WR (Moss, Rice). The Chiefs had Patrick Mahomes (top-3 QB) and Travis Kelce (top-3 TE) too. Greatest offensive trio on one team of all time. The Pats had Brady-Moss, but Gronk didn’t arrive until a couple years later, though Brady-Gronk-Hernandez was killer too.
I had the Saints +4, and they would have covered too, except Derek Carr got hurt, and Jameis Winston couldn’t throw an accurate pass. Just let Taysom Hill (who I have at TE in a drawing-dead keeper league squad) be the highest PPG TE of all-time.
The most obvious ATS pick for me was Washington +9.5. Sometimes when a number seems obvious, you should fade it. Same with Eagles +3 at home. I wrote “I’ll be the sucker who takes the Eagles.” Fuck around and find out indeed.
With Saquon Barkley and Keaton Mitchell on bye, and Kenneth Walker hurt, I started Royce Freeman and Michael Carter at RB in my Primetime. I actually subbed in Carter at the last second for Jeff Wilson once Achane was green-lighted. That move netted me one extra point. I could still have a 150-point week if Evan Engram blows up tonight, but it’s not enough
Gardner Minshew is a league-average QB at least. He’ll have a 10-plus year career if he stays healthy. I liked Alec Pierce this year, but Michael Pittman is the only guy Minshew looks for regularly.
I’m gonna have a field day with Team I Wish I Had Drafted piece in a couple weeks. This year, you really could have built a dominant team with guys like Rachaad White, Alvin Kamara, Kyren Williams, Raheem Mostert, Puka Nacua, Sam LaPorta, Brock Purdy, C.J. Stroud and Achane. Who needs the first five rounds?
It’s sad the Jets have devolved to having a Siemian at QB. I get they’re upset about how the season’s gone, but going ape is unseemly.