Week 14 Observations
It's over
What an annoying year. My Chiefs stack team was dominating through nine weeks, despite having Rashee Rice suspended for the first six and Jordan Addison the first three. I survived Week 10 with 128 points despite all the Chiefs, Ja’Marr Chase and Javonte Williams having the same bye week, then Chase, the Chiefs and Woody Marks (my other running back after I lost Cam Skattebo) collectively no-showed, since. I mean I knew the Texans were a tough matchup this week, but Travis Kelce hands the defense an interception to end the game, and Rice can’t hold onto a ball when taking a hit?
My Primetime team was 4-0, before losing Malik Nabers, then Puka Nacua for a game and a half, then Cam Skattebo, then Garrett Wilson. One silver lining this week is Drake Maye was off, so I started Danny Dimes. That means I no longer have to fret about botching my lineup last week and costing myself a possible playoff berth via record because Dimes would have killed me even had I done everything perfectly last week. I knew he was good for something.
Arguably my best team, the one in the Seslowsky, league is missing the playoffs by probably 20 points because I got a hankering for some Strange over my usual tight end Harold Fannin. I also had that worthless sack Kenneth Walker in my lineup over Woody Marks and David Montgomery. I only drafted Walker because some retarps™, i.e., retarded sharps, told me to.
But the biggest problem with that team was my lineup setting all year. I started Bo Nix over Jared Goff the week Goff had 47 points, and Goff over Nix when Nix had 45. You’re going to get at least 40 percent of your close start/sit calls wrong, but that’s not the issue. I got Goff over Nix right this week (Goff had 21.25, Nix 18.10), but it’s a margin of three points. You really want to get the 20-point-margin calls right and the three-point ones wrong. And for that you need your players to do better in good match-ups and worse in bad. When they go against the grain, or you consult FantasyPros and other retarps, you’re toast.
But I don’t care about the shoulda/woulda/couldas anymore. I don’t give a fuck. I had some teams about which I was hopeful, and through bad luck and/or my being a retard, they didn’t get it done. I’m disappointed. I want to win the $250K, I want to win the Circa Millions, the Circa Survivor, and I didn’t come close. My teams were good at one point, but not good enough. I wanted a playoff sweat, and I’m not even gonna get that except in the Stacker Sports league and the RotoWire Dynasty league, both of which are low stakes.
Oh, and I lost with the Bucs in Stacker-Sports Survivor and went 3-2 to start Q4 in Circa, not drawing dead yet, but steepening the climb. Just a shit week and a shit year. At least the Giants might get the No. 1 overall pick.
JSN’s year is so crazy because he gets such a modest number of targets. Even through 13 games, he’s only got 120, roughly a pace for 150. By contrast Ja’Marr Chase has 139, and he was suspended for one game.
The Seahawks could get the one-seed, and they have a good defense, but I’m not buying them as a serious contender. Maybe I’m still annoyed about Walker getting 3.8 points in a game they won 37-9.
Why are the Falcons even bothering? And of course this is where Kyle Pitts shines. The Jerry Jeudy of tight ends.
One Circa pick I got right was the Steelers +5.5. The Ravens are not the Ravens. It’s too bad the Bengals lost because they’re the best team in that division now, the only one that could possibly win a playoff game. Hell, I’d probably give the Browns a better shot at winning a playoff game than the Ravens or Steelers.
Why did Baltimore give Mark Andrews $26M guaranteed? Lifetime achievement award?
DK Metcalf finally got involved in the way you would have thought all year. No idea why they waited until Week 14.
Lamar Jackson looked a little more nimble, but still not close to himself.
I also had the Colts in Circa, and while they probably would still have lost (they were down 14-7 when Dimes got hurt), the injury sealed my fate. Riley Leonard passed the eye test for a first start on the road against a solid defense. He also lost a TD and a key first down due to illegal formation and other stupid penalties.
The Colts traded their first round picks the next two years and threw in Adonai Mitchell to the Jets for Sauce Gardner. Now Sauce is hurt, Dimes is probably out for the year, and Adonai Mitchell is probably the Jets’ No. 1 WR, (such as it is.)
The Jaguars are not serious playoff contenders.
RIP Bhayshul Tuten whose college fumbling problem reared its head Sunday (two fumbles, one lost.)
There was a Brian Thomas sighting, but let’s not get too excited as Jakobi Meyers got 10 targets to Thomas’ six.
The Saints are bad, but they’ve been scrappy all year, competing against almost everyone.
Tyler Shough should have a future as a backup at least. He looks like a player.
The disappearance of Emeka Egbuka in the season’s second half is a big story. Usually it’s the opposite for rookies. I actually traded Egbuka at his peak in a Dynasty League, though of course he could still have a monster career. But for now he’s more on the Zay Flowers path than say the Amon Ra St. Brown.
As I mentioned I took the Bucs in Survivor even though I had misgivings about them. But had I pivoted it would have been the the Browns.
The Dolphins now have the same record as the Chiefs and Ravens.
De’Von Achane had a great start before leaving with a rib injury. He probably would have set some records had he stayed healthy. Apparently, he could have returned to the game, so he’ll probably be available for the fantasy playoffs.
It looks like Jaylen Wright (24 carries) is Achane’s backup again, not Ollie Gordon (five carries.)
The Jets are down to their ninth-string QB, what can you do? Breece Hell isn’t carrying your to victory under those conditions.
The Vikings got shut out and blown out last week, so naturally they shut out and blow out their opponent this week. But that didn’t help Justin Jefferson who they’re sending down the OBJ career path.
Jayden Daniels got hurt again, but apparently could have returned. I doubt the Redskins will take a QB with one of the top picks in the draft, but it wouldn’t be crazy to have an insurance policy at this point.
I’ve had Tony Pollard on my bench in two leagues all year, and I wasn’t even tempted to start him against the Browns.
Cam Ward is going down the Bryce Young path. I wouldn’t say there’s no hope, he’s shown brief flashes, but you’d expect much more from the 1.1 by Week 14.
Shadeur Sanders might be cocky, he might make some questionable decisions, but he throws a nice ball with great touch. He’s still an interesting prospect, at least as interesting IMO as Ward right now and much more interesting than Dillon Gabriel. BTW, where are all the nutless monkeys who mocked Sanders for saying he didn’t want to play in Baltimore because they already had Lamar Jackson, for the few weeks Jackson was hurt? They thought it was some snide shit to say because they were brainwashed into hating Sanders by their TV, but now Jackson’s back, no chance Sanders would start ahead of him, and Sanders has a chance to cement himself as the future of the franchise in Cleveland with a strong finish.
Fannin is a player, he just needed a QB who could sustain drives. Even Jerry Jeudy is startable now.
Bengals +5.5 (which I used in Circa) almost turned into a historic bad beat. Thank God double-concussed Tee Higgins made a one-handed catch to backdoor it.
Would it kill Joe Burrow to throw to Ja’Marr Chase? (Chase will probably go 20-15-300-4 next week for me in the consolation round.)
Mike Gesicki has been resurrected as a viable TE now that Burrow’s back too.
No surprise the Bills tight ends had two TDs and 137 receiving yards against the worst TE defense in NFL history.
The Raiders last second field-goal after a defensive delay of game penalty to backdoor cover the spread was world-class. You don’t have to imagine being on the other side of that bet, you can watch it here.
It’s hard to get a feel for the Broncos offense — almost seems to function at random.
RJ Harvey got a big workload — 17 carries, six catches — but he’s not yet a consistent between the tackles runner like JK Dobbins.
The Raiders are like the Falcons — they have some good players, but there’s not really a good purpose for their existence.
If you knew Marvin Harrison weren’t playing, how many receivers would you rank ahead of Michael Wilson? JSN for sure. But no chance you’re starting Justin Jefferson or Ladd McConkey over him.
Puka Nacua finally looks 100 percent healthy. That last TD in garbage time was a nice bonus.
Both Rams backs went off Sunday, but it’s a 50/50 split now.
I had the Packers -6.5 in Circa, and I got kind of lucky as that was a close game.
It’s almost impossible to sack Caleb Williams — he’s one of the best escape artists in NFL history.
The Bears are still spreading the ball around a ton, even while missing Rome Odunze. Very hard to count on anyone — even the running backs are 50/50.
It’s not always pretty, but Josh Jacobs produces almost every week. He ran over a few defenders for a key first down late in the game too.
Christian Watson had four catches for 89 yards and two TDs on four targets. They might *consider* throwing his way more often. Jayden Reed, in his return, caught all four of his targets for 41 yards and had two carries for 22. Remember Tucker Kraft is out for the year, and for God knows what reason they drafted Mathew Golden (one target) in the first round. And still no one saw more than four targets.
If I had to pick one team to win the Super Bowl, I’d go with the Packers. Best offense/defense balance, and they can run the ball or throw it. Rams would be my No. 2.
Chiefs-Texans was rough. I had Woody Marks who caught the TD pass, but that was it.
CJ Stroud made some great throws under pressure and on the move. This was the guy we watched as a rookie. The Texans could be a tough out in the playoffs, a sleeper to come out of the AFC.
Nico Collins was a huge bust in the first half of the year, but more or less as advertised since. Kind of like Chase Brown.
Patrick Mahomes threw three picks, but one was a gift to the Texans from Kelce, who along with Rice dropped some passes. If I recall correctly Noah Gray dropped at least one too. Mahomes also lead the team in rushing, as they couldn’t get anything going on the ground.
It was a total no-show from the pass catchers — Xavier Worthy led with three catches for 55 yards.
The Chiefs offensive line was a problem the last month. It really sunk their season, and more importantly, mine.