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Week 15 Guessing The Lines
I went 3-2 again last week, to put me at 37-32-1. It’s funny because the last minute, oddball picks came through (Panthers/Lions), but the ones I liked initially in last week’s Guessing The Lines (Giants/Browns) did not.
This week I was off on two games, and way off on one. When I say “off” I mean my guessed line is off. If my own line differs, but the guessed line is closer, that’s a lean. But when both are off, it means I’m missing something about the game.
Week 15 numbers:
I’ve faded the Vikings all year, but I thought they’d be bigger favorites against a low-end Colts team at home. Four implies they’re not far from being equal teams on the neutral field. That said, I might fade this impression because the line is so surprising to me.
The biggest discrepancy by number was the Chiefs-Texans. I guessed it would be 8.5 on the road (a huge number), but it’s 14! And the Texans nearly took down the Cowboys last week. But relatively speaking, that’s not as big a difference as I had between the Vikings-Colts.
The other two discrepancies are the Broncos-Cardinals (meaningless with Russell Wilson’s status up in the air and Kyler Murray out) and Patriots-Raiders (not a big deal going between plus-2 and minus-1.)
And in fact my lines are closer to the real ones on the Chiefs and Raiders too.
A couple teams I like a little bit (irrespective of the line discrepancies) are the Jaguars — Cowboys defense hasn’t been as tough of late, and Trevor Lawrence is getting better — the Titans (they’ve been bad, but the Chargers are soft), and maybe the Niners — the Seahawks are fading.