Week 15 Observations

Toast

So my teams and picking pools are likely toast after a disastrous day. I was in the NFFC Online playoffs with a team that had a heavy Miami stack (Tua, Waddle, Jonnu), and as you probably know Waddle got hurt early, and Tua did very little. I had Ladd McConkey on my bench too, but he was questionable for a late game, so I didn’t want to gamble on him. West Coast players are slightly less valuable for that reason — you won’t have good info on them as often when you have to lock in your lineups.

My Steak League team got bounced from its playoffs, and I had another bad day ATS. Basically unless the Vikings defense and Brock Bowers combine for 60 points in that BCL, there’s not much for me to root for down the stretch except maybe the Giants getting the No. 1 pick.

In years past I’d be more pissed about this, but not as much anymore. I think I used to operate under the assumption that I was supposed to win, and my not winning was bullshit either because I had screwed something up, or a coach/player/injury screwed me. In other words, if things didn’t go my way, it was an injustice of sorts. I don’t think I ever articulated this assumption to myself the way I have here, it was just my unconscious sense of things.

But now I increasingly feel that whatever happens is what was meant to happen. The outcome I got was most beneficial to me in the long run, even if in the moment I’d much rather Tua had thrown for 400 yards, 200 of which went to Waddle. That would have been great, but not as good as the actual outcome, otherwise it would have happened. That takes the edge off, but in my experience it’s also true. You can’t always get what you want, but you get what you need.

• One of the games I got right Sunday was Chiefs -4. It just seemed obvious Jameis would implode against that defense, and the Chiefs were a buy-low off their narrow wins. But the big story is obviously Patrick Mahomes’ ankle. The Chiefs are still the favorites IMO if they get the bye (which looks very likely if Mahomes is okay.) You really want the Ravens to beat the Steelers, take the division, then wind up playing the Bills in the divisional round.

• Nick Chubb broke his foot — might be a blessing in disguise to shut it down, give his knee more time to heal for 2025.

• Jerry Jeudy will be a polarizing player for next year’s drafts after his run with Winston at QB.

• Joe Burrow might be as good as any QB in the NFL right now. Some of the scramble throws he made were insane, and he’s moving like he did during his rookie year.

• You know Ja’Marr Chase is having a monster year when 11-9-94-0 is a massively disappointing game.

• I was disappointed the Saints didn’t succeed on their two-point conversion. I had the Killer Redskins ATS, and I always want to see a team punished for not covering.

• I traded Terry McLaurin, Joe Mixon, Amari Cooper and Kurt Cousins for Jonathan Taylor in the RotoWire Dynasty League last year because those guys were getting old, and I wanted to rebuild. Turns out Mixon is better than Taylor SU, McLaurin is a top-five WR and I narrowly missed the playoffs even though I was fourth in points.

• Malik Nabers has 90 catches in 12 games. That prorates to 128 over a full season.

• Lamar Jackson makes it look so easy. Rashod Bateman might save me from buying steaks too.

• Rico Dowdle had another massive game, albeit against yet another soft defense. I’m an idiot for taking the Panthers as a favorite.

• CeeDee Lamb hasn’t fared too badly now that Cooper Rush has a few games under his belt.

• Mac Jones has shown a spark, certainly enough to keep a backup job for years, but with the upside to emerge as a Sam Darnold late-bloomer type.

• Davante Adams still has it. Just one insane catch after another. Also Aaron Rodgers scrambling for 45 yards was a surprise. The Jets offense was terrible early, and now that it’s coming around, the defense has fallen apart.

• I watched a lot of the Dolphins Texans. I feel like the Texans fucked me all year, my Texans teams were eliminated, then they fucked my live Dolphins team for good measure.

• The Dolphins can’t run the ball anymore, which puts Tua behind the eight-ball in down and distance. And Tua needs to get the ball out right away. He’s great at hitting the guy out of the backfield in stride, but if that quick throw isn’t there, he’s in trouble. Plus, Tyreek Hill isn’t separating like his used to, and Waddle got hurt. Their only reliable player is the great Jonnu Smith. Do you remember when everyone was bitching at Arthur Smith for featuring Jonnu over Kyle Pitts? Maybe he just realized Jonnu was the better player.

• Tua throwing those last two picks just destroyed me. I think they were both on first down too. Plus I had the Dolphins +2.5 in Circa, not that it matters.

• Anthony Richardson showed a spark a few games ago, but he’s looking more Teebow-esque by the day. Maybe a poor man’s Taysom Hill.

• Jonathan Taylor dropped the ball before scoring the TD, and actually a Bengals defender did the same yesterday on a return TD too. Why even chance it? Is it cooler, more non-chalant-seeming to drop it the second you cross the line? Real man drops it at the 10, keeps running through the end zone like nothing happened. (Reminds me of All Quiet On The Western Front, the WWI book, where someone gets his head blown clean off, and he keeps running with no head for 50 yards or so. Sorry, that’s dark, but it’s staying in.)

• Bo Nix targeted 11 different players, and no one had more than 32 receiving yards. In fact, the Broncos had just 193 total yards.

• I went to sleep right before the onside kick in the Lions game. Josh Allen makes it look so easy with mostly scrubs around him. The Lions had to work more for their drives.

• Jared Goff had 494 yards and five TDs, but threw 59 times. You want to sell out to stop the run (which is now only Jahmyr Gibbs with David Montgomery down) and make the Lions play finesse ball. Amon-Ra St. Brown had a monster game to punish me for comparing him to Jarvis Landy last week.

• The injuries to the Lions defense didn’t matter until they play best offenses. The NFL is such a war of attrition.

• I thought the Steelers would put up a better fight in Philly, but maybe the Eagles are for real. Having both receivers healthy is big, but the defense absolutely dominated.

• The Cardinals haven’t found a way to get Marvin Harrison consistently involved all year. Trey McOldMaid has broken Diontae Johnson’s record for catches without a TD, but I don’t think it counts unless he goes scoreless the last three games.

• Drake Maye looks okay, but he’s surrounded by a bunch of total scrubs.

• The Bucs destroyed the Chargers. Mike Evans’ 159-yard game means he needs another 250 over the next three weeks to extent his 1,000-yard streak. Rest assured he’ll get it if he and Baker Mayfield stay healthy.

• McConkey had three-catches for 42 yards and a TD on the first drive, and I was aghast I had sat him for Waddle. But he did very little the rest of the game despite the Chargers trailing the whole way.

• I had the Packers -2.5, and that was easy money. Jordan Love is very good, and the Packers defense got to Geno Smith, eventually knocked him out of the game.

• Josh Jacobs had every touch but one on the opening drive, and it looked like he might go for 200 and 100, but he settled for a modest 136 YFS and only the one score. Seriously, I’ve never seen a single player get more work on one drive.

• Forget about the Packers receivers — they spread the Love too widely. And no, that’s not code for anything.