Week 16 Circa Millions
“For the simplicity that lies this side of complexity, I would not give a fig, but for the simplicity that lies on the other side of complexity, I would give my life.”
— Oliver Wendell Holmes
With the Saturday games, the Christmas festivities, being away from home and subject to a schedule over which I have little control, I put in my Circa picks early. There’s just too much risk of forgetting to submit them when you’re out of your routine, and alcohol is involved.
One thing I’ve realized more than ever this year is I do better by feel and worse by value. For a few years I got seduced by the idea that the key was quantifying past performance and the extent to which it was mispriced by the current line, but that’s for the autists and quants. For me, it’s just aligning myself with the ebbs and flows of the league, getting a sense of each team’s trajectory, trusting my judgment and experience. I’ve done this long enough and paid close enough attention that (at least when I’m in sync), it feels like picking is simple, the kind of simplicitiy on “the other side of complexity.”
As usual I liked three games, while the other two were just blind stabs in the dark.
Here are my picks:
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Real Man Sports to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.