Week 16 Observations

Travel Day

I flew to New York from Lisbon yesterday, landing in Newark just as the early wave of games were kicking off. I caught five minutes of the Giants game which was on the airport TV in the immigration line and maybe 40 minutes of the red zone channel for the late games at Heather’s aunt’s house. Basically, I didn’t see very much of the live action, though I was tracking scores and stats from my phone. In fact, the reason I have time to write this is I’m jetlagged, woke up at 4:30 (which is 9:30 Lisbon time), and now that it’s six and I can’t get back to sleep, Figured I might as well take advantage of it.

Of course, I went 5-0 ATS in Circa now that I’m mathematically drawing dead. I picked five home favorites, giving zero Fs, and the Chargers, Chiefs, Ravens, Bengals and Colts all covered. I’d like to bottle that mindset and open it next season. My playoff NFFC team scored 180 points, thanks to the Falcons defense and Eagles kicker, but it’s not enough given the meager Week 16 showing. My Steak League team has 128 points with Xavier McKinney going tonight, so I’m still on pace (narrowly) to be an eater, but I can’t fall asleep at the switch the last two weeks.

• I didn’t watch the Saturday games, either, but why were the Chiefs only 3.5-point home favorites over the Texans? I assumed the line was that low only because Patrick Mahomes was iffy, but that wasn’t the case because it never moved even after they said he’d play.

• With Xavier Worthy getting 11 targets, and Hollywood Brown eight, it’s going to be hard to decide who among those two, DeAndre Hopkins and Travis Kelce is likely to produce in any given week. Same with Kareem Hunt/Isiah Pacheco.

• Tank Dell had a good game before dislocating his kneecap, but he’d been one of the bigger busts this year. I know small receivers have thrived in the NFL of late but 165 pounds is probably below the minimum threshold.

• The Steelers just don’t have enough juice to matchup with the AFC’s top teams. The Ravens are the best team in the AFC IMO, but they’ll likely have to win in Buffalo and Kansas City to prove it.

• “12-inch” had modest numbers against the Giants, but when your defense scores two TDs, you mostly just hand the ball off. I didn’t get to see the Falcons on offense, so I have no “eye test” on 12-inch (thankfully), but he’ll get a real audition next week at Washington in what’s actually an important game with the Falcons in first place now (they have the tie-break over the Bucs.) Should they beat the Killer Redskins they’ll be favored to win the division as they draw the Panthers in Week 18.

• The Gians keep losing and now have the inside track for the No. 1 pick after the Raiders beat the Jaguars. I’m nervous about the QBs at the top of the board. I assume they’ll take one of them, but I’d rather they trade down for a bunch of picks if they have a taker.

• The Lions got closer to securing the No. 1 seed after the Eagles lost, but they have a tough last two games (@SF, MIN) while the Eagles get the Cowboys and Giants at home. The Lions have the better conference record, and Jalen Hurts is concussed, so they’re probably in the clear against them. Of course, the Vikings are also 13-2, and they play in Detroit Week 18. But that game would be moot if the Vikings don’t beat the Packers next week.

• Keenan Allen has been big the last five games. Wonder where he gets drafted next year at age 33.

• Dorian Thompson-Robinson was a surrender move by the Browns.

• I love that the Bengals got Ja’Marr Chase that gratuitous late TD. Seems like Joe Burrow is trying to pad his stats in what might be a season (and contract) for the ages.

• The Colts found the formula — unleash Jonathan Taylor, let Anthony Richardson make plays with his legs and attempt only 11 passes. Of course, you don’t get the Titans every week. It’ll be interesting to see whether the Colts commit to Richardson as their starter this offseaon.

• I heard there was some drama with Aaron Rodgers and the Jets yesterday, but I’m too lazy to track it down. He won’t be there next year, and the Jets are a cursed franchise anyway.

• The Rams are in first place in the West, a crazy turn of events given where they were when they lost Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. This is good for the league because they’re the only team in that division with a puncher’s chance against the Lions, Vikings, Eagles and Packers.

• Kupp had another dreadful fantasy game. He was the worst pick in the draft this year because not only did he miss time with injuries, he virtually ensured you could not advance to the finals in the playoffs.

• The Killer Redskins made a great comeback against the Eagles behind a monster game from Jayden Daniels, but it was the Kenny Pickett Eagles. The Eagles might not rush Hurts back as they’re probably the No. 2 seed now regardless, and they get the Giants in Week 18.

• Saquon Barkley now has 1,838 yards with two games to go. Two 100-yard games put him at fifth all time on the single-season list, while two 140-yard games give him the all-time record, albeit in 17 games. He draws the Cowboys and Giants.

• The Panthers and Cardinals had a 36-30 overtime shootout with no special teams or defensive TDs where the leading receiver in the game was a running back who had 49 yards.

• Sam Darnold was always athletic and could make the throws, but he’s really cleaned up the mistakes this year and is playing with a top-10 all-time receiver. If the Vikings were to beat the Packers next week and the Lions in Detroit, and Darnold were to have two more monster games, he'd deserve MVP consideration as the QB of the 15-2 top seed. Funny if that happened the year Barkley broke the all-time rushing record, given the Barkley-Darnold debate around the No.2 pick in 2018. And the other two MVP candidates were QBs drafted that year (Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.)

• The Pats really hung with the Bills even though they gifted Buffalo a TD on a botched lateral to Rhamondre Stevenson. Probably just a letdown game after the Bills big win in Detroit.

• The Raiders bothered to win and knock themselves out of the top pick. Could be a blessing in disguise though as the Jets did that five years ago and dodged the Trevor Lawrence bullet. (They are a cursed franchise though so they took the Zach Wilson one anyway.)

• I know nothing about college football, but it’s amazing to me the Jayden Daniels, Brian Thomas, Malik Nabers LSU team last year didn’t even come close to winning the National Championship, that there were college defenses that apparently stopped them.

• The Dolphins finally fixed the running game, but not Tyreek Hill.

• The Cooper Rush Cowboys might have just spoiled the Buccaneers season. They might be saving Mike McCarthy’s job too, something they may come to regret.

• Rico Dowdle had been beating up on bad run defenses but got stopped in his tracks by a stout one.

• Bucky Irving could be a top-five back next year. I know the GigaRachaad is there, but Irving is a far better runner and also a capable pass catcher.

• You think you’ll lose interest in the NFL when most of your teams and pools are dead, but there’s always something drawing you back. In fact sometimes it’s more enjoyable when you don’t care as much.