Week 17 Observations
As I mentioned, I missed all the Christmas Day games (what a joke of a slate!) and I was traveling during the Saturday ones, though I caught a little of the Ravens-Packers — saw Derrick Henry running them over on a TV with no sound at Gate B31. The Sunday games were mostly garbage too, that is, until the great one on Sunday night that salvaged the weekend.
It turns out the correct stack for the fantasy playoffs was the 49ers. Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Jajuan Jennings, George Kittle/Jake Tonges. The 49ers are one home win against the Seahawks from getting the NFC’s No. 1 seed, despite losing Purdy and Kittle for half the year, Fred Warner and Nick Bosa for most of it. Ben Johnson and Liam Coen deserve Coach of the Year consideration, but it has to be Kyle Shanahan if the Niners beat the Seahawks next week.
McCaffrey now has 303 carries and 122 targets in 16 games. If we knew only that ahead of the year, he’d have been the no-brainer 1.1. (Actually if we knew ANY back had that volume, he’d have been 1.1.) Turns out McCaffrey also has 2169 YFS, 96 catches and 17 TDs.
Purdy is peak Baker Mayfield with actual scrambling ability rather than just grit.
The only negative for the 49ers was Trent Williams’ hamstring injury, though the offensive line held up pretty well without him.
Luther Burden will probably get taken in the fourth round now, around the same area as Rome Odunze and maybe Ricky Pearsall.
Crazy that game started with a pick-six on the very first play from scrimmage.
Of course the Giants had to beat the Raiders and blow the first overall pick. It’s not as bad as the Jets, desperate for a QB a few years ago, blowing their shot at Trevor Lawrence (not that he’s necessarily panned out, but he was a massive prospect), but it’ll cost them if they want to trade down.
Wan’Dale Robinson at 5-8 is apparently one of the shortest 1,000-yard receivers of all time.
The Raiders are truly garbage.
My Steak League team is likely to remain a single (rather than double) buyer, but only because another team (Josh Ross’s) is unbelievably bad. My three worst buys were Brian Thomas, Lamar Jackson and Brock Bowers, who is now on IR too.
It’s amazing the Eagles let the Bills come almost all the way back. The Bills are still drawing live with Josh Allen and no truly dominant team in their way, but they’ll probably be underdogs even in the Wild Card round.
No one is picking the Eagles to do anything, but they’ll have at least one home game and are roughly 50/50 against anyone.
Nice to see Trey McBride break the record for catches by a TE in Game 16. The 17-game records are fake.
No one could stop the Cardinals offense in the second half of the year except apparently the Bengals.
Michael Wilson will get drafted ahead of Marvin Harrison next year, right?
Chase Brown should finish the year with roughly 70 catches and 1,000 rushing yards despite being one of the biggest busts of the first half.
The Steelers couldn’t even clinch against the Browns, have zero upside against actual playoff teams, and that’s assuming they beat the Ravens next week, which they probably won’t. I’m rooting for Aaron Rodgers though.
Shadeur Sanders threw a bad pick, but he’s not scared and more or less passes the eye test for me behind a terrible offensive line.
Chase Young just ripped the ball out of Cam Ward’s hands and ran with it to the end zone. Not sure why that doesn’t happen more often. Edge rushers should treat QBs like little kids with lunch money.
Cam Ward might be okay, I still can’t tell. Tyler Shough or Cam Ward if you’re a real NFL GM for 2026? Gotta go Shough. Chris Olave had the best year of his career too.
It’s odd the Jaguars are 12-4 thanks to offensive guru Coen, and yet Brian Thomas was fantasy’s biggest healthy bust while Travis Hunter is out for the year.
The Colts regressed to the mean so hard it became the mode.
If Rivers could be this serviceable, Tom Brady could win a playoff game. Honestly, I could see this becoming a trend wherein retired superstars sign backup contracts to un-retire in case of injuries. In other words, they don’t deal with training camp, travel or weekly practices, but if Lamar Jackson goes on IR, Brady steps in for a month. Like a military reservist getting called to active duty, but not stationed anywhere unless there’s a war. The Yankees did this with Roger Clemens where he’d skip training camp and join midseason when he was up to speed.
The Bucs couldn’t even beat the Quinn Ewers Dolphins with their season potentially on the line, but got bailed out when the Panthers lost too.
What is Emeka Egbuka now, the fourth receiver on the team? Give me Burden over Egbuka next year.
Barring a civilizationally historic performance Mike Evans isn’t gonna get to 1,000 yards.
I didn’t watch a ton of this game, but Ewers passed the eye test on the few plays I caught.
TreVeyon Henderson was the hard-yardage grunt with Rhamondre Stevenson getting the targets and touchdowns in your fantasy title game.
Drake Maye had only two incomplete passes and five TD passes, granted it was against the Jets.
Bryce Young had 54 passing yards on 24 attempts.
The Seahawks just grind teams down. I hope the 49ers beat them next week for the sake of playoff watchability.
Derrick Henry looked old until he didn’t. He’s had the quietest 1,469-yard, 16-TD season of all time with one game to play.
Like the Steelers, I don’t see the Ravens having any upside with Tyler Huntley/this version of Lamar Jackson.
Malik Willis looks like a player. Maybe he’ll be a starter somewhere next year.
I wasn’t paying attention, but was Josh Jacobs supposed to be limited Saturday, or was his dud a complete shock?
Christian Watson has to be the first Packers receiver drafted next year, say in the sixth round.
I didn’t catch the Chargers/Texans at all, but the result is about what I’d have expected. I used Houston in Circa, but wound up 2-3.