Week 18 Observations

Just Enough

I didn’t have much at stake this weekend, only my home picking pool — I finished second this week, so no $70 payout — and not becoming a buyer in the Steak League. Jonnu Smith did just enough in the late games to keep me in fifth place out of eight, which is self-buyer status, perfect if I don’t make it back to LA this summer. The reason you want to be the self-buyer if you don’t show for the dinner is you neither have to pay, nor do you let one of the NLMs who should have had to foot your tab off the hook! If I go to LA, I’ll be happy to pay for my own steak.

I also went 4-1 ATS in Circa to finish at 48-41-1, not nearly good enough to cash, but at least respectable.

• I laid the 18 with the Ravens, and it was easy. DTR is the worst QB of all time, and Bailey Zappe is maybe the 60th best in the league. Rashod Bateman came through big time for me in Steak and will be important if Zay Flowers isn’t ready for the playoffs.

• I would give Lamar Jackson the MVP — his numbers are off the charts (8.8 YPA, 41:4 TD/INT, 915 rushing yards, 6.6 YPC) — and the Ravens are still the No. 3 seed. He led the league in YPA and YPC! But it’s Josh Allen’s “turn”, and his teammates weren’t as good, so he’ll probably win.

• Derrick Henry led all RBs with 5.9 YPC on 325 carries including short yardage. He just turned 31 the other day too.

• It’s too bad the Bengals missed the playoffs. A bad call Week 1 against the Pats cost them that game (and my Survivor entry.)

• Ja’Marr Chase had a fantasy season for the ages — not just a triple crown, but one where he had a 12-175-4 lead over the second best performers in every category (ARSB, Justin Jefferson and Terry McLaurin, respectively.)

• The Steelers have zero upside, even if they are ever-so-slightly dangerous to their division rival in Round 1.

• The Bucs really struggled with a garbage Saints team. I didn’t think they’d have to force-feed Mike Evans the record and his bonus at the minute risk of nuking their season, but they did.

• The Eagles backups were better than the Giants starters, who knew? Malik Nabers had 109 catches in 15 games with garbage QB play. He’s a first-rounder next year.

• The Giants get the No. 3 pick which is great because they might avoid the QB minefield and get Travis Hunter.

• Someone made a good point about Saquon Barkley potentially getting the rushing record in 17 games — he’d still have done it in fewer carries than Eric Dickerson. Moot point, obviously.

• Think the Broncos have a puncher’s chance against the Bills.

• Jonathan Taylor sure had some big games after his fantasy owners were eliminated from the playoffs. He’ll go in the second round again next year.

• Josh Downs has 100-catch upside if he stays healthy and the Colts get passable QB play. Not sure what they’ll do with Anthony Richardson though — maybe going down the Trey Lance career path.

• Brian Thomas is going early to mid-second round next year, and I’ll be in.

• Circa Survivor had some insane sweats with the Packers and Falcons. Ten people out of 18 went down on those two games. The Packers one was especially bad as the Bears had it locked up, fumbled, got the Packers a miracle reprieve, only to win the game on their own last-second 50-plus FG.

• I guess the Packers went all-out because they really didn’t want to have to play in Philly next week, but now Jordan Love is banged up, Christian Watson tore his ACL and they’re going to Philly anyway.

• Bryce Young made one of the biggest comebacks I’ve ever seen. To be as bad as he was his rookie year, then so bad his second year he lost his job to Andy Dalton, only to finish this strong is amazing. The Panthers probably would still prefer C.J. Stroud, but it’s much less egregious than it was.

• Bijan Robinson had one of the quietest monster RB years I can remember. He was a quasi-bust at cost early on but finished with 61 catches, 15 TDs and 1,887 YFS.

• I didn’t see much of 12-inch, but the Falcons put up 38 points, and Drake London went off. London will go late first-early second again next year.

• Of course Kyler Murray has his monster game when it doesn’t matter. Actually, I was going against him in Steak, and the guy behind me (Josh Ross) nearly caught me for self-buyer, so it almost mattered.

• I nearly cost myself steak by starting Aaron Rodgers over Joe Flacco last week, and this week I started Flacco. Lineup setting is the worst part of fantasy football — you will be wrong at least 40 percent of the time when it’s close. I think the Dolphins were No. 1 in stinginess against opposing fantasy QBs too.

• I’m happy Rodgers likely finished his career with a good game and a win. People can ding him for his personality, but the signal is he stood up to unimaginable vitriol and hate and did the right thing for his health. He makes for a 10x better role model than the “class-acts” who complied.

• Jonnu Smith was such a beast for me in the second half of the year. He’s got to be a top-five TE on next year’s boards as he always showed flashes of this, and Tyreek Hill isn’t getting any younger.

• The Rams host the Vikings instead of the Killer Redskins as a result of their loss. That sounds bad, but given how poorly Sam Darnold played in the biggest game of the year and how the teams have suffered the subsequent week after playing the physical Lions, it might work out in their favor. The Rams are a sleeper in the NFC.

• I thought the Chargers might rest people, but I was wrong. I guess playing the Texans rather than the Ravens is kind of a big deal. I was also going against Quentin Johnston in Steak, which only worked out for me because it’s half PPR, and he didn’t score.

• Brock Bowers broke Malik Nabers’ briefly held rookie catch record. I probably wouldn’t take Bowers in Round 1, but there’s a case for it.

• I had Wil Lutz in Steak, and I was pleading for the Broncos not to keep scoring TDs. Usually in blowouts, you get lots of FGs in the second half.

• Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims are entertaining in Sean Payton’s offense. They’ll probably get crushed by the Bills, but if you’re Buffalo you’d rather draw the Texans or Steelers than a young team with this kind of energy.

• Another reason I’m not buying in Steak is Ross started based Harrison Butker who missed his only kick and got a zero.

• Remember all those midwits who said you always draft a QB early, and running backs don’t matter? The Lions took a washed up, unwanted Jared Goff, surrounded him with a first-round offensive tackle and running back and decisively secured the No. 1 seed depsite losing half their defense.

• So much for Sam Darnold as a dark horse MVP. He couldn’t deal with the Lions pressure and didn’t see the field well. What a change in trajectory from last week. If the Rams knock out the Vikings, and Darnold plays poorly, who knows whether the Vikings will commit to him?

• Gibbs is such a beast. He took a nasty hit early in that game too.

• The Lions deserved the top seed. They were the best team in the NFL all year, lost a ton of defensive players to injury, but seem to be coming together again at the right time.