Week 18 Observations
Low-stakes redemption
After a disappointing year, and a two-game Saturday night slate where I forgot to make the picks in my home ATS pool (actually remembered 30 minutes after kickoff of the first game, but the software locks your picks for the day once the game starts, so I couldn’t make either), I went 12-2 on Sunday to win it for the first time all year. And after losing with the 49ers in Circa Saturday night, I went 4-0 on Sunday with the Colts, Pats, Redskins and Steelers.
There was nothing at stake in Circa except running my season-long record to three games over .500, and the weekly prize in my home pool is only $70. But to have a rooting interest in something and see it pan out was satisfaction enough.
The Steelers-Ravens game was great. I root for Aaron Rodgers, and his accuracy was pinpoint despite 50 YO Adam Thielen arguably being his best receiver. The Steelers aren’t good, but they showed a lot of heart. Jaylen Warren ran especially hard this game too.
Of course, the Ravens lost on a missed 44-yard FG, so they easily might have won. Lamar Jackson made a few amazing throws under pressure, including a go-ahead TD to Zay Flowers after escaping a sack and the 26-yard completion to Isaiah Likely on 4th-and-7 to set up the ill-fated kick. But he’s so obviously not 100 percent as a runner, and I wonder if the GOAT scrambling is permanently a thing of the past.
Derrick Henry is still the same guy. Just remember to trade for him midseason next year.
The Falcons really screwed the Bucs this year, getting swept by the Panthers then beating the Saints to knock them out. I guess you could argue it would have behooved the Bucs to win more than eight games.
The OPI on Tet McMillan at the line of scrimmage negating a big play was borderline game-fixing. WTF?
Bucky Irving never seemed like himself after the midseason injury. Neither did Baker Mayfield. I know I harp on this, but watching Mayfield scramble is always annoying to me. He’s just so damn slow, but tries so hard he’s effective.
The Seahawks defense is apparently really good. Totally shut down the high-flying Niners offense. I still don’t trust Sam Darnold in high-stakes games, but he might not have to do that much.
I root for the Bucs because of their based head coach, so I was disappointed to see the Saints fall short. They were driving too, but Tyler Shough threw a bad pick on the penultimate drive,
The Myles Garrett record-breaking sack was anticlimactic. It seemed like he should have beaten it by five and was desperately trying to save face yesterday after the networks obsessed about it for half the year.
The Packers offense was in Tune, but not on time.
Justin Jefferson probably still belongs at the 1-2 turn, but if I’m taking him I hope his QB is someone not presently on the roster.
The Giants really know how to step up and avoid the dreaded No. 1 overall pick. Can’t have that!
Jaydon Blue showed some wiggle, way more than plodder Javonte Williams.
Bad luck for Cam Ward to jack up his throwing shoulder in a meaningless game, though I guess all games for them were meaningless so maybe it’s as good a game as any.
The Bills opened as 1.5-point favorites in Jacksonville. I’d probably flip that around — the Jaguars have been the better team most of the year.
The Colts played their asses off against the Texans, and Riley Leonard showed enough IMO to keep the job until Daniel Jones recovers, and even then, it could be a battle.
Jonathan Taylor’s season mirrored that of his team. Started with a bang, ended with a whimper.
Alec Pierce getting ejected for barely (accidentally) touching the ref was absurd, but even more absurd was the nutless booth justifying it. Maybe worse than Joe Buck clutching his pearls when Randy Moss mock-mooned the Packers fans after a TD.
The Texans appeared to be throwing the game and conceding the fifth seed (which draws the Steelers) to the Bills when they pulled CJ Stroud in the second half. Lucky for them Davis Mills is good, because they would have had to travel to Jacksonville instead.
Normally I bet the teams with nothing to play for against teams with seeding at stake, but I made an exception in the case of the Jets, laid the wood with Mitch Trubisky and the Bills.
Nice stat-padding by Amon Ra St. Brown. Could make a difference 15 years from now when they’re voting on his Hall of Fame candidacy.
The Bears are only 1.5-point home favorites against the Packers next week.
A couple years ago, the Broncos had bankrupted themselves for Russell Wilson and Sean Payton and parted with key future picks. Now they’re the one seed.
Gotta hand it to the Raiders, closing out the year with a win and yet preserving the No. 1 overall pick. This is what separates them from the Jets of a couple years ago who botched their way into Zach Wilson.
Maybe Ashton Jeanty turns out to be good yet, but he’s looking more Trent Richardson than Bijan Robinson after Year 1.
Matthew Stafford sure padded his stats for the MVP race this week — 46 TDs sounds like a lot.
Michael Wilson will get drafted in the fourth round next year and probably be a bargain.
The only Week 18 Dolphin with name recognition was Zach Wilson, aka QB1.
Rhamondre Stevenson did some nice stat padding too.
The Eagles didn’t seem to care whether they played the Packers or 49ers, so they draw the 49ers.
The Rams are massive favorites against the Panthers even though the game is in Carolina, and the Panthers beat them a few weeks ago. It’s as close to a bye as there is, as no other Wild Card game has a line bigger than 3.5.