Priority 1 in a given NFL weekend, survive in real life. Check. Priority 2, survive in Survivor, check. Priority 3, see other people perish in Survivor, X. It’s all well and good to take the Eagles and Ravens and fade the lunatics using the Cardinals, 49ers, Cowboys, Rams and Bengals, but when against all odds, they *all* survive for two weeks straight, it’s disappointing, especially when the refs in the Cardinals-Panthers game worked so hard for it. (I never feel guilty no matter how bad a beat my opponents take, but had the Cardinals lost this would have been so bad I (almost) didn’t want it to happen. I can’t in this space spend the time it would take to detail the craziness of that end game other than to say, go watch the fourth quarter and imagine having the Cardinals.)
Even the Ravens let the Browns hang around for longer than I would have liked. Cleveland went for it on 4th-and-2, down 17, and Marlon Humphrey, instead of knocking the ball down for a turnover on downs, tries to intercept it, it deflects off his hands and into the arms of Cedric Tillman for a TD, to cut it to 10. The previous drive, the Ravens had the ball first-and-goal from the half yard line, but had to settle for a field goal because they (a) didn’t give it to Derrick Henry; and (b) didn’t challenge a would-be Mark Andrews TD he caught, took two steps, and then afterward had it knocked out of his hands. The announcers said something retarded about possessing it to the ground, but he was standing up in the end zone. Once it’s a TD, it can’t be not a TD just because someone later knocks the ball out. But all’s well that ends well, and the Ravens really weren’t much of a sweat even if in my paranoia I tried to make it so.
But the story of the day, besides Joe Burrow being out three months with a turf toe that needs surgical repair, was Russell Wilson, the NFL’s leading passer, and the Giants. I don’t want to dwell on what happened in overtime where Wilson killed both drives, one by fumbling the ball 10 yards behind him and the other by throwing a pop-up interception, but on his monstrous game, lobbing perfect deep balls down the field to Malik Nabers (a top-three real life and now fantasy receiver), Wan’Dale Robinson (almost an auto-start at this point) and Darius Slayton. The game was so bananas, with 41 points scored in the fourth quarter, capped off by Brandon Aubrey hitting a game-tying 64-yard FG. Aubrey is so absurd, the Cowboys ran a three-yard draw play on third down to cut the FG to *only* 64. A few years ago, that was the all-time record, and the Cowboys didn’t even bother throwing a 10-yard pass to make it a meager 57.
Wilson had 450 yards passing and 23 rushing. He made the one bad mistake in OT, but otherwise played almost flawlessly despite the Giants committing 160 yards in penalties. (That’s not a typo.) Jaxson Dart is the future, but Wilson looked like the prime version for most of that game. (It reminds me of how the Giants drafted Eli Manning in 2004, but started Hall of Famer Kurt Warner over him for a few games, got rid of Warner, let Eli start his 222-game streak, but afterward Warner led the Cardinals to a Super Bowl in a better season than Eli ever had.)
Cam Skattebo runs with serious power and though he juggled some passes was also useful as a receiver. He saw 11 carries to Tyrone Tracy’s five. Consider Skattebo the 60/40 favorite going forward with upside for more.
Nabers and Robinson are getting massive target shares. Slayton is a distant three, and Theo Johnson and the backs are just bit players in the passing game.
Jake Ferguson saw 12 targets, one more than CeeDee Lamb. George Pickens got nine and made an impact drawing penalties.
Javonte Williams (18 carries, six catches) is a bell cow, and the Cowboys seem to be happy with him in that role.
Aubrey should have gone in the eighth round in the NFFC, and in real life he’s probably worth a second-round pick. Being in range from your own side of the field is insane.
I don’t like the double Monday night game schedule. Leaves your matchups too up in the air on Monday.
The Ravens looked shaky on offense for most of the game, and they salvaged it with some garbage time deep throws to DeAndre Hopkins and Devontez Walker. What broke the game open for them was a Roquan Smith fumble-return TD.
It was a rare game where Lamar Jackson and Henry combine for 36 rushing yards.
Zay Flowers saw 11 targets. No one else got more than four.
Mark Andrews had a TD called incomplete, but he’s auto-bench until something changes.
Quinshon Judkins showed something and led the team in carries with 10. I’d expect the second rounder to be at least the 60/40 part of a split.
The Browns mostly dinked and dunked to Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku, Harold Fannin and Cedric Tillman. It makes no sense to stick with Joe Flacco, and in fact they should audition both rookie QBs if they can before the year’s out.
I went 2-3 in Circa which is almost as bad as 0-5. After all, if you knew nothing, if you were a monkey, 2-3 (or 3-2) are your most likely outcomes. You’re not worse for going 0-5 than a monkey. Unless you’re a nutless one.
I don’t know how the Bengals won that game without Burrow. They seemed like they were behind the entire time. I used them in Circa, but I didn’t know they’d lose their QB.
Burrow was seen after the game in a walking boot and with a crutch, but I think he’s just using it as a crutch. (Too soon.)
Ja’Marr Chase (16 targets) got his. Obviously he doesn’t go No. 1 overall if Burrow is out, but he probably wouldn’t fall too far out of the first round. Tee Higgins (eight targets, three catches) scored a TD, but you wonder about him. That Burrow/Chase stack is probably drawing dead after two weeks.
Chase Brown hasn’t gotten it going either, and the Burrow injury likely hurts him too.
I’m glad I didn’t FOMO myself into Travis Hunter. Trevor Lawrence might not be salvagable, even by Liam Coen, and Lawrence is spreading the ball around too. I have Brian Thomas in two leagues, and that’s not looking great either. I actually got Nabers at 1.9 in the Primetime because someone else took Thomas at 1.8! I would have taken Thomas had he taken Nabers. At least Thomas saw 12 targets.
Bhayshul Tuten showed a spark and caught a TD. Travis Etienne isn’t going anywhere, but Tuten has value as the clear 40 side of the 40/60 split, given his speed and receiving skills.
One pick I got right was the Lions -6.5. Unfortunately I left Goff’s 47-spot on the bench in the Beat Alan Seslowsky league, along with 32 from Rome Odunze. What can I say, I have too many good players — the team still scored 173.
You have to love the Lions for getting ARSB that last garbage time TD with eight minutes left in the fourth. That’s what winning fantasy seasons are made of.
I faded Jameson Williams, and even though he had 108 yards and a TD, he saw only four targets. There are just too many mouths to feed between ARSB (target-hog, alpha), the two backs, one-handed deep ball specialist Isaac TeSlaa and Sam LaPorta. Maybe Williams thrives if someone gets hurt, but TeSlaa *should* see more targets too, but can’t.
Gibbs is so electric, and he’ll get more work in the passing game when the game-flow dictates. Montgomery looks like himself too.
Odunze is the clear No. 1 in Chicago, DJ Moore the clear No. 2, and the rest of the receivers are a Burden. What a contrast between rookie Tyler Warren and Colston Hateland too.
I stacked Rams WR in the Primetime, and both Puka Nacua and Davante Adams delivered for me. Nacua even had a 45-yard TD run on which he looked fast. Kyren Williams saw his usual workload but was vultured by Blake Corum for the TD.
Tony Pollard is a bell cow, but Cam Ward isn’t throwing him the ball. He’s also spreading targets around between various receivers. That offense hasn’t clicked yet.
Rhamondre Stevenson had 11 carries for 54 yards and five catches for 88, while TreVeyon Henderson had three caries (two fewer than Antonio Gibson) and two catches. If we re-draft today, Henderson is going in Round 7 or 8.
Drake Maye did fine, especially with the rushing TD, but his receivers were spread thin. Stefon Diggs saw five targets, and no one other than Stevenson saw more than three.
Tua Tagovailoa seems off. He missed a wide open Tyreek Hill on a play and hasn’t connected for many big plays. Hill still got 109 yards, but saw only seven targets.
De’Von Achane had 11 carries for only 30 yards, but put up a receiver-like 10-8-92-1. He’s basically their top receiver in addition to being their top back. Jaylen Waddle showed something with 68 yards and a TD.
I took the Jets +6.5 in Circa and that was dead on arrival. I hate seeing a game burn like that before even having a sweat. I thought Justin Fields had found something after lighting up the Steelers, but maybe the Steelers defense is bad. Fields also got concussed for good measure, so bringing in Tyrod Taylor to generate some garbage time stats was a no-brainer.
Remember when I said Garrett only game in town Wilson was a top-five receiver? Scrap that. He’ll be fine even with Taylor, but more like top-12.
Breece Hall never got going as the entire offense was stalled.
Josh Allen had a quiet game because the Jets didn’t force him to do much. What a contrast with the Ravens who made him take over and put up a line for the ages.
James Cook is still clearly the guy even if they don’t throw to him that much.
The receiving corps in Buffalo is a longshot to yield a top-20 guy.
I used the Steelers in Circa, but that was only because I thought the Jets weren’t that bad when it was just that the Steelers weren’t that good. The muffed kickoff TD that sealed my fate was annoying too.
Kenneth Walker finally showed his explosiveness in sharp contrast to Zach Charbonnet. JSN got his again, but Cooper Kupp went 9-7-90-0 himself. Neither got the TDs, but the tree is fairly narrow in Seattle. Kupp might not be done as a top-25 WR yet.
Kaleb Johnson lost the fumble in the end zone and saw only one carry. He’s droppable if you need the roster space with even Kenneth Gainwell ahead of him.
Why do both backs in this game go by “Kenneth” instead of “Kenny” — just seems a bit formal for a football player?
Jaylen Warren is getting good work as a runner and receiver — he’s like the 70/30 starter for now with all the pass catching.
I didn’t watch much of this game, but Aaron Rodgers looked shaky in the highlights I saw.
I made Seslowsky use the 49ers in our re-buy Survivor pool. I just had a feeling they’d win with Mac Jones, though the game was close. Jones is one of the league’s best backups, probably will start somewhere again before long.
I didn’t watch much of the game, but Christian McCaffrey saw 13 carries, had another seven targets and seemed to hold up on that calf.
Alvin Kamara lost a fumble, but he had 21 carries, 99 rushing yards and six catches. It’s amazing how many class of 2017 running backs (McCaffrey, Kamara, Kareem Hunt, James Conner, Aaron Jones) are still going strong in 2025 even if Joe Mixon is on the ropes.
Sean Payton’s been on the opposite end of some nasty losses. The non-called PI against the Rams in the playoffs in 2019, the Stefon Diggs’ Minneapolis Miracle in 2018 and now the refs calling a penalty on a missed FG to set up the game-winner for the Colts.
Bo Nix was sharp in the first half, but he couldn’t connect with Courtland Sutton (four targets) at all, and he fizzled in the second. Troy Franklin saw nine targets, Marvin Mims only two.
JK Dobbins ran well and scored a TD, but saw only two targets. RJ Harvey was a non-factor with five carries for eight yards and one catch.
Daniel Jones is playing well. No turnovers for two straight games, and he took just one sack against a tough Denver defense.
It was mostly the Jonathan Taylor show — 25-165-0, 2-2-50-1. Josh Downs got involved with eight targets and six catches, TE Tyler Warren got seven and four, while Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce each saw four targets. Maybe one of the receivers will emerge, but there are a lot of mouths to feed.
Bryce Young makes some plays, but I don’t think he’s good. Maybe he’s too short, doesn’t see the field that well, I’m not sure.
Tetairoa McMillan had a good game, but Young spread the ball around so much. Ja’Tavion Sanders had nine targets, Hunter Renfrow nine (and two TDs!) and a bunch of scrubs even saw work. (Real man Xavier Legend had an 8-1- -2-0 line!)
Kyler Murray had a nice 30-yard scramble but he doesn’t pass the eye test as a quarterback for me. He still can’t get in sync with Marvin Harrison 5-2-27-0 either.
Trey Benson didn’t do much in relief of James Conner on the ground but saw six targets, catching four of them. Benson looks like a player to me. I’d be patient with him.
What a slop fest the Chiefs-Eagles was.
Isiah Pacheco might be cooked. He’s not efficient, he doesn’t catch passes and they trust Kareem Hunt in short yardage. Nothing good happened for any Chiefs in the passing game, except for one 49-yard Tyquan Thornton TD after Mahomes missed him the first time.
Saquon Barkley had a modest game, but did what he had to. The Eagles short-yardage ass-smash is such a big advantage. I don’t know why only they have mastered it, but it’s an asymmetry to convert automatically every third-, fourth-and-short and goal-line. It’s like having Aubrey as your kicker.
AJ Brown got more action (eight targets), but only five catches for 27 yards. One game is a fluke, two is a pattern, three might be a crisis. Brown should be fine, but as a demented Joe Biden said to people who refused to inject themselves on command with pharmaceutical conglomerate poison: “Our patience is wearing thin.”
I didn’t realize the Falcons had such a good pass rush. They buried JJ McCarthy.
“Six-inch” had a modest game, and he held the ball too long for my taste, taking three sacks himself. (More than one sack is too much if you’re a Penix.)
Drake London didn’t look hurt, but he saw only four targets. I guess you don’t have to pass much when your opponent scores only six points.
Bijan Robinson isn’t explosive like Jahmyr Gibbs or powerful like Derrick Henry, but he’s maybe the smoothest back in the league. He just seems to glide for yards. It’s funny because we assumed Robinson would be a bell cow while Gibbs would be a complement, but Tyler Allgeier’s role isn’t that different from David Montgomery’s. Allgeier vultured the only TD, but Robinson’s role is good enough for RB1 unless Christian McCaffrey miraculously stays healthy.
Justin Jefferson had modest game, but that happens when you can’t pass protect or throw downfield.