I remember a decade ago I noticed certain NFFC players buying dozens of teams, talking about their number of player “shares” and thinking it was contrary to the spirit of fantasy football. What a contrast from my first drafts in the ‘90s when it was my one and only team, every pick meant something, and if you made a bad choice it could ruin your whole year.
Even when I maxxed out at roughly 10 leagues, say seven years ago, only 3-4 were NFFC, and most were odd-ruled RotoWire Staff leagues, Dynasty or industry ones. It seemed a bit cowardly to hedge your bets so much like some kind of diversified stock portfolio rather than just going all-in with your guys and letting the chips fall. Fantasy football was always going to have variance, injuries and luck, but that was no reason to draft and fade everyone simultaneously.
Fast forward to 2026, and I now see these guys were ahead of the curve. Whether it’s always been this way, or gotten worse — seems worse to me, but I could be wrong — there is no point in researching, prepping and drafting all summer just to lose your key players to season-long injuries, and to add insult, on the first drive of the game to ensure you’re cooked for that particular week. Like why even bother to plunk down $1800 for the Primetime and shrewdly avoid Puka Nacua for JSN if you’re out Achane in Week 3 and got crushed in Week 2 when DJ Moore went down on the first drive too? Sure other people will have injuries too, and I remember winning a Primetime a few years ago when someone lost Lamar Jackson on the first series in the fantasy playoffs (not giving that money back!), but that does you no good this particular year with this particular team. It’s like you signed up for a fantasy football league and found yourself in a Survivor contest.
By contrast if you have 120 leagues with shares of players in proportion to where they fell in your draft and how much you like them at a sliding scale of prices, injuries are guaranteed and priced in. Some teams lose, others gain, you always have something for which to play. No one draft means that much, but no one draft kills you, either. The guys doing this recognized the nature of fantasy football and adapted to it rather than passively moping when their second round pick is out for the year, and they’re drawing to very few outs.
The price they pay of course is having to manage 100 leagues which for me would be hell, and they’ve laid out a decent chunk of capital up front they’d probably like to recoup. Sure, they are virtually guaranteed to cash in some leagues, but if they’re not clipping some overall wins, they’re still losing large amounts of money most years, given the structure of the payouts and the rake. As nice as it would be to play fantasy football largely immune to catastrophic injuries, I wouldn’t be willing to pay either price, let alone both.
Maybe I’m just bitching because I had a bad baseball year (more on that later this week), and I’m annoyed that most of my first and second round picks there were also busts. Baseball seems almost as bad as football as far as that goes — good luck if you drafted Aaron Judge, Ronald Acuna, Jose Ramirez, Paul Skenes, Garrett Crochet, Julio Rodriguez, Gunnar Henderson or Vlad Guerrero in the first round. Again, there were always injuries and busts in football and baseball, but have we ever had the majority of the first round by ADP turn out to be busts? Like even your very first pick is likely to be a landmine?
The conclusion to which I’m coming is not one I want to reach. I’ve played fantasy football and baseball for 31 years, I made it my job and my “career” if you can call it that. When I watch sports I think like a fantasy player — I value players based on what they could do for a hypothetical fantasy team. I love looking at old time players like Babe Ruth’s and Ty Cobb’s stats and trying to figure out what they’d be worth if transported to a 2026 auction league. I have calibrated my sports watching, thinking and observing in large part to the fantasy games derived from them over a long period of time. That’s why I never liked playing in OPS leagues and no longer like non-PPR now that I’ve calibrated to full PPR. I have created a particular groove in my mind, adapted it to these structures.
Maybe the game has just passed me by, maybe I’m not as young and hungry as I used to be. Maybe. But it’s also possible the actual leagues have fundamentally changed in ways that make these particular games derived therefrom less satisfying. Baseball has managed pitcher workloads, fewer players play the full 162, batting average has been deemphasized for on-base percentage, the NFL is full of running back committees, concussion protocols, etc. I don’t know if that’s true or I’m just more aware of it now and less willing to roll with it.
I remember also when DFS got big, and a bunch of people, sharing similar sentiments, quit the headache of season long and devoted themselves — calibrated their thinking — to that. But DFS also sucks. What difference does it make if you lose Achane for the year, or your million-dollar lineup got derailed because your QB-WR combo’s TD got called back due to an illegal shift? Yes, you can come back fresh the next day without your injury riddled team, but you will almost certainly never be in that position again unless you spend ungodly sums and effort to get there. DFS is flawed for the same reason as fantasy — you’re bound by the structure of the contests, and you have to convert your insight about the game into a arbitrary roster and cost structure set up by the provider.
What if I love the price of three running backs, but don’t have a great feel for the receivers on the slate? Too bad, you have to include receivers in your lineup. Maybe you just watch what you watch and think what you think, and you don’t care to attach yourself to more than three players all year, or two players in one slate, or one ATS pick or one money line? My new “job” is to trade sports prediction markets, and while there is a lot that can still be improved, it’s amazing just to pick out the things you think are good values and trade them. If you want to bet YES on JSN leading the NFL in receiving yards, you can do that. If you want to bet NO on Nacua getting to 1250 yards, you can do that too. If you want to bet one game ATS for any amount or take some alernate line for higher odds, you can. Bottom line, now that I have a taste of freedom, I feel like I’m only hanging onto the old version of fantasy football out of habit, because of the groove I carved into my brain over decades of doing it that way.
I always said the reason fantasy sports blew up the way it did was simple: it’s human nature not to let knowledge sit idly. If you knew a ton about physics and engineering you would probably try to invent something. If you knew a ton about botany you would probably plant a garden. And if you know a ton about sports — which a substantial portion of the American (and global) mostly male public does — that knowledge demands an application. Arguing with your buddies over beers who will win NFL MVP is not commensurate with the vast pool of sports knowledge you possess. It demands a more robust outlet, and fantasy sports satisfied that demand. I was so happy to have found fantasy football and baseball, I told my friends in 1998 —before I knew anyone working in what was then a tiny industry — that if I could find a job doing this, “I’d be set.”
But here we are 30 years later, the games have changed and there are many other ways to set this brain-bursting otherwise-useless knowledge free. I will probably always play fantasy football and baseball in some capacity, but with Achane going down — even if, let’s face it, he was probably going to be a bust anyway — it just made me psychologically divest that much more from the old structures, like whatever I’ll set my lineups and bid on waivers, but I haven’t even checked the scores this week.
I bought 300 shares of YES Jeremiyah Love 100 yards for 10.5 cents each when he had 44 yards with more than six minutes left in the second quarter. How were they offering almost 10:1 on the proposition that he just continued his then-current pace? Love finished with only 90 yards, so I didn’t win the $300 (though I recouped most of the $30 by YES on 70 and 80 for smaller payouts.) But it seemed like a good bet, Love is now obviously the bell cow with Tyler Allgeier relegated to a backup role.
Michael Wilson got 17 targets, and though he had a modest 11-89-1 line, it’s obvious he’s Jacoby Brissett’s main WR along with Trey McBride. Marvin Harrison (5-3-40-0) needs to be paired with more of a downfield thrower than Brissett, assuming Harrison is even a thing anymore.
Brissett is a viable fantasy QB given the volume, weapons and likely game scripts.
Christian McCaffrey gets out of bed and scores 21.6 fantasy points. Four catches, 15 carries, a TD, nothing special.
Brock Purdy had another great game, albeit against a weak defense, but Mike Evans is now hurt, and you know George Kittle and probably Deebo Samuel will get hurt before long.
The Bills and Colts uniforms were annoying. I expect to glance at the screen and understand who’s who instantly, but I had no idea which game was even playing. It was almost as bad as a standalone game a few years ago where the Jets played some team that wore special red jerseys. Being red-green colorblind, I couldn’t tell offense from defense.
The Retargers should just fold up shop at this point. What is even the purpose?
Imagine drafting Omarion Hampton over Kenny Walker as many did. Mercifully Walker was long gone when I took Achane.
Tre’ Harris led the Chargers in receiving, while targets were split among him Quentin Johnston (another bad drop) and Ladd McConkey. McConkey always seemed like a long shot to be a high volume receiver, even in the unlikely event he stays healthy. Ordonde Gadsden was a zero, despite the other TEs being hurt.
James Cook was not a good first-round pick in NFFC — only 21.4 points to show for a 154-yard day, fewer than McCaffrey.
I had NO Josh Allen two TD passes which was good. He ran for two because the fantasy GOAT has to have a floor. He apparently dinged his knee late in the game, but it doesn’t seem serious.
DJ Moore (10-6-67-0) was healthy enough. Dalton Kincaid had a quiet game, but Allen had only 204 total passing yards.
After losing in Survivor with the Chargers Week 1, it seemed painfully obvious I should have taken the Jaguars against the “massage-freak” QB instead. Now the Browns are 2-0 since, and the Cardinals, who knocked me out, are 0-2. The market price was the market price for a reason. I still should have taken the Jaguars obviously, but hindsight obvious isn’t the painful kind.
Not really sure why Byron Young didn’t target Tetairoa McMillan on more than five of 48 attempts. Darren Waller got eight targets, and he’s a startable tight end now.
Massage Guy didn’t do much, but he also didn’t turn the ball over and made a big throw to Harold Fannin (9-7-51-2) to seal the game. It’s amazing the Browns (and Giants) are 2-1.
I’ve never seen anything from Quinshon Judkins — the Panthers should have been a good matchup too.
Breece Hall can’t get out from under the Jets, and now he’s got a thigh injury. Garrett Wilson (13-10-107-1) had the game you’d hoped for against the Lions. Geno Smith can support a big season from him.
Kenyon Sadiq had his breakout game (8-7-105-1) and that genie probably isn’t going back in the bottle even when the injured targets return.
Jahmyr Gibbs falls out of bed and gets 30 fantasy points. He actually had 41.4 Sunday on 20 carries and eight targets. As great as Bijan Robinson was Thursday night, and as great as JSN has been all year, Gibbs is still the no-brainer 1.1.
Amon-Ra St. Brown had his first dud of the year if you want to call it that — 8-4-19-1 — good for 11.9 fantasy points. But even on a down day for ARSB, it was Isaac TeSlaa, not Jameson Williams, who led the team in receiving.
The Texans miss Nico Collins badly. They have no one dangerous on the entire offense.
The Colts aren’t so different without Alec Pierce. At least they have Jonathan Taylor, but no one can hurt you down the field.
I went 1-3-1 in Circa this week, and one of the teams that got me were the Dolphins, covering all game until the Chiefs decided to seal it with that Travis Kelce TD at 3:10 left in the game. They were already in field goal range, up 7, just run clock and kick the FG to go up two scores!
The Dolphins actually defended Kenny Walker pretty well, though he still had two TDs, but only two targets.
Rashee Rice is good, and the sharps saying otherwise were wrong. Will be a top-10 PPR WR by year-end as the Chiefs don’t have anyone else.
Kelce saw only two targets but made the most of them, one a 48-yard catch, the other an 11-yard spread-covering TD.
The Dolphins moved the ball okay even without Achane. I guess Ollie Gordon is the obvious pickup now.
The Giants game was ridiculous. Four field goals, 118 yards passing in a game they should have lost but for Cam Ward’s gift end zone pick. And Brian Burns tore his ACL for good measure. Good thing they keep drafting edge rushers with top-10 picks!
Cam Skattebo was the team’s leading rusher and receiver. Malik Nabers coming off an ACL, playing with a shoulder injury and losing his QB is rough. But it can always get worse — the Giants just traded for JJ McCarthy, for example.
Carnell Tate looked good to me, ran nice routes, got open, made a few plays. Wan’Dale Robinson cashed a YES 50, NO 60 pair for me which is the point of putting those trades on — risk a tiny bit (can’t lose both) for a chance at the middle where you win both.
The only Circa pick I won was the Steelers. Somehow their offense came to life, and Cincy’s defense, which seemed good against the Bucs and Texans, probably is not.
Jaylen Warren saw more work with Rico Dowdle out and got 127 yards on 7.5 YPC. So much for the Dexter Lawrence effect.
It’s hard to recommend any Steelers pass catcher at this point, as the production is sporadic and diffuse.
I had the Seahawks -7.5, and they lost outright.
Sam Darnold had a monster fantasy game — (379 yards, four passing TDs) — as they couldn’t run the ball whatsoever.
JSN is on a historic pace after another 14-10-128-2. He’s the only game in town and might be the 1.2 right now if we were to re-draft.
Jadarian Price fumbled, split carries with George Holani and Emmanuel Wilson and Zach Charbonnet is coming back soon. Avoid.
The Redskins couldn’t run the ball either, but Terry McLaurin went 9-6-77-1.
The Super Bowl loser hangover is real, the Pats are toast and Drake Maye is a turnover machine. AJ Brown should win MVP in absentia.
I find the Jaguars borderline unwatchable, but they’re the only contender in the AFC South now.
Justin Jefferson would’ve gone for 150 yards had he not hurt his ankle. Jordan Addison is the perfect complementary receiver — dangerous deep threat who makes good on his chances.
The Vikings must really not see much in Desmond Claiborne because they’re running 40 YO Aaron Jones into the ground.
Baker Mayfield hit one long pass to Ted Hurst early, but didn’t do much else. He had a would-be 75-yard—ish TD to Chris Godwin called back due to a hold, though. Of course he tore his thumb and will probably miss a few weeks. Jalon Daniels was brought in late to throw a Hail Mary and had a hilarious forced smile on his face after failing to succeed in a virtually impossible situation. I guess he’ll start, but who knows if they bring in a retread (or retard) instead.
I went to bed before the end of the Ravens-Cowboys, my push in Circa. Apparently they put a couple seconds back on the clock to allow the game-winning field goal after initially calling for OT? Imagine what that did to live prediction markets.
Zay Flowers is healthy enough apparently, but was limited to only six targets. Derrick Henry is so touchdown dependent, but his touchdowns are dependable.
The Cowboys and Ravens are both overrated. Neither is a serious contender.
Javonte Williams finally got going, but with only two catches for five yards.
I had the Saints in Circa, and the Raiders took it to them. I always feel better about a wrong pick like this than a coulda/woulda/shoulda one like the Dolphins.
Kirk Cousins is still good enough, and he went to Brock Bowers 13 times for 10 catches, 116 yards and a TD. Oh right, that’s why Bowers was being drafted in Round 2 before we knew he was hurt.
Ashton Jeanty largely got stuffed, but managed 19 carries and three catches.
Maybe the Saints aren’t good so much as scrappy, as in they’ve got a puncher’s chance against anyone, but anyone has a chance against them.
The guy I was contemplating instead of Achane was Chris Olave, but I passed due to his concussion history. At the time, I thought it was a no-brainer.
I find Etienne pronouncing his name like Achane even more annoying now. I’m glad he’s in a timeshare with a 50 YO.
The Broncos are 2-1, despite having played the Rams, Chiefs and Jaguars.
That was a crazy game, Denver down 16-0 at half and coming back with exactly 16 in the third quarter. Then Denver punting on 4th-and-2 after a three-and-out, down 3 with 7:10 left, giving up a 49-yard reception on the first play after the punt, only to be gifted a pick six three plays later. Then the Rams score in two minutes to take the lead, the Broncos score in three minutes, thanks to some questionable penalty calls, but don’t make the Rams burn their timeouts, then the Rams drive down to the red zone and stall on the last play. I’m sure I’m missing something from the edited version, too.
Kyren Williams (15-88-0, 7-6-70-0) looked like the clear starter compared to Blake Corum (6-15-0, 4-2-0). Not sure why the split was so extreme, but Williams ran very well.
Davante Adams went 13-7-137-0 against Patrick Surtain. Maybe Puka Nacua returns next week, but Adams still has it.
I don’t really understand the Broncos offense, what its purpose is, except to mix things up unpredictably while scoring the middling level of points necessary to win with their defense.
Pat Bryant looks like a player. RJ Harvey saw seven targets out of the backfield despite leaving the game with a suspected concussion.