I’m not much in the mood to write this today, in large part because I lost in Survivor. And it’s not just that I lost in Survivor, but I did it due to an unforced error, a lack of discipline on my part. (The other reason I’m not in the mood is this (don’t watch if you’re already on edge), but that’s a topic for my other substack.)
It’s actually funny the team I picked lost by 30, which has to be an all-time record. (There should be a Circa booby prize wherein whoever gets knocked out by the largest margin gets 2x his entry back. No one would do it on purpose because the 14-point dog you took almost certainly won’t be the worst, and it’s not worth getting knocked out just for the minute chance to win 2x.)
It was an unforced error because the obvious pick this week was the Bills, and I think I had just gotten a bit impatient, having burnt the Eagles and Ravens while watching all the “save for later” people survive the first two weeks. Like a linebacker who was minding the gaps for two games and watching other players gamble for stuffs and sacks, only to gamble himself in Week 3, and the running back cuts back for a 70-yard TD.
Funny thing is my vibe about Bills-Dolphins wasn’t even wrong — the Dolphins were tied in the fourth quarter, had the Bills stopped before a roughing-the-kicker penalty extended the drive, and the Bills went up seven. Even so, the Dolphins were driving with a few minutes left (was thinking maybe they’d score and go for two), but Tua threw the soul-crushing pick.
But the reason you take the Bills unless your vibe is overwhelmingly bad is just that. Even with the Bills being a little sloppy, even with the Dolphins playing hard, Josh Allen is so good that they still won by 10. You take the pot-odds compliant biggest favorite on the board, barring a strong vibe because they overcome adversity anyway. Michael Vagenix not only didn’t overcome it, he had one of the worst QB performances I’ve ever seen from a starting franchise QB. He was like a deer in headlights, totally unable to process what was happening. The Falcons defense didn’t even play that badly, but what are you gonna do when your offense scores zero in the first half, then throws a pick-six to open the second?
Nothing I can do about it now but forget it. I’ll do a literal postmortem Survivor column in more detail this week, but going forward I’ll just discuss it with Alan for our re-buy pool in the weekly video. Incidentally, I hate re-buy pools — just double the entry fee and make it single elimination if you want a bigger payout.
If you had the Packers in Survivor, you didn’t lose by 30, so no booby prize for you, but same result. One thing I got right was the Browns defense is really good. I had the Ravens in Survivor last week, and though they scored 41, it was on a defensive TD and a couple big plays late. The down-in, down-out even in that game was a slog. Pick up the Browns if they’re still available.
Quinshon Judkins would go in the third or fourth round if we were to re-draft. The offense is still bad, but you want the bell cow on a team with a great defense.
Jordan Love and the Packers receivers are hard to use — run-first team with its own good defense.
Danny Dimes (Indiana Jones?) is playing great. Funny, none of those midwit nerds has come back and conceded the Gettlechad who took Saquon Barkley and Dimes in back to back drafts, along with Dexter Lawrence, and also sold high on Odell Beckham, was no worse than an average GM.
Jonathan Taylor seems like a league winner in Round 2. He’s on a good offense, completely healthy and one of the league’s top-five bell cows.
The Titans offense is lost, and Calvin Ridley looks cooked. Elic Ayomanor and Chig Okonkwo might be useful, but the offense is dragging everyone down.
My other winning Millions pick was the Vikings (had the Browns +10) — their defense is good, and the spot was perfect after that miracle Bengals win over the Jaguars. Jordan Mason doesn’t do much in the passing game, but he’ll be one of the leading rushers until Aaron Jones gets back.
Ja’Marr Chase got a few catches in garbage time, but he might go mid Round 2 if we were re-drafting. Tee Higgins maybe in the sixth along with Chase Brown.
The Steelers offense is bad — Jaylen Warren is all they have, and he’s just okay. DK Metcalf will be lucky to live up to his draft slot.
Drake Maye should be good for fantasy, and it’s not his fault Rhamondre fumbled twice and Gibson once. (Maye himself fumbled too.) TreVeyon Henderson got an opportunity and did little with it though. Hunter Henry is the only startable pass catcher on that team.
The Eagles should have lost, but came away with the cover on the blocked FG TD. I was happy because it padded the score for my likely 3-0 Primetime team that had the defense. The Eagles are the new Chiefs — ugly, but they win in crazy ways.
Jalen Hurts had a big game and will put up passing stats on the occasion the Eagles are playing from behind. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith too finally benefited from game flow.
Puka Nacua has a good chance to lead the league in catches and yards, but not TDs with Davante Adams around. Adams scored and had at least one other end-zone target I saw.
Kyren Williams was not a home run pick in Round 3, but he’s a steady double.
The Jets had their own blocked FG TD to take the lead, but the Bucs like to wait until the last drive to win the game anyway.
Mike Evans left with a hamstring injury. Emeka Egbuka made a sick one-handed catch and should see plenty of work if Evans misses time. Chris Godwin should be back soon though, at what capacity I don’t know.
Bucky Irving had a modest game, but 25 carries and four catches is good.
Garrett Wilson (13 targets) really is the only game in town, but Breece Hall got stuffed and split work with Braelon Allen.
Tyrod Taylor and Justin Fields are six of one, half dozen of the other.
I took the Raiders in Circa due to the line movement after it was set, but it was a donkey pick. Turns out the Redskins are better even without Jayden Daniels.
The Redskins split the carries between three backs with Chris Rodriguez getting the most carries. You can’t really start any of them with confidence.
Ashton Jeanty is going down the Trent Richardson career path. I would still buy low, but the Raiders are bad.
Tre Tucker lit up waiver wires and benches, while Brock Bowers goes down the Sam LaPorta career path. The highlights of Geno Smith’s career are getting punched in the face and heroically breaking up Eli Manning’s consecutive games-played streak which precipitated the firing of Ben McAdoo for the one thing he did right.
Vagenix dragged down the entire team, but Bijan Robinson gets his no matter what. Drake London looks healthy again, but “One-Inch” is a real problem. Shout out to Parker Romo for missing both field-goal attempts too when it was still a game.
The Panthers lost two offensive linemen, and you wouldn’t have noticed. The Falcons got no pressure at all on Bryce Old who doesn’t move that well, is short and erratic. Basically he’s present-day Russell Wilson without the foot speed.
Rico Dowdle is getting work, making Chuba Hubbard just a 65/35 timeshare back this year.
I had CJ Stroud everywhere last year, so I watched a lot of Texans games. That’s why I have no Stroud this year despite the eight-round discount. The offensive line is barely top-32, and the coach is doing his QB no favors.
Trevor Lawrence is just a guy, should settle in eventually as a mid-end backup to a good QB like Dimes.
You guys get any Strange this year? I did not (and have not for a long time.)
Brian Thomas seems like a bust. Lawrence can’t throw, and Thomas is dropping passes. Bring back Mac Jones! In our first podcast I expressed shock to Alan Seslowsky that Travis Hunter was going so early, but I got FOMO eventually and almost but thankfully did not draft him. Why would you take a guy who plays so many snaps on defense?
Bhayshul Tuten is on the wrong end of the 70/30 split, but he’s getting work and Travis Etienne has never been durable.
Why is Parker Washington getting 11 targets?
Nico Collins salvaged his day with a long TD, and his 11 targets/eight catches are fine. He’s the Garrett Wilson of the Texans.
Woody Marks is the clear No. 2 and has some upside even though Nick Chubb looks fine. Marks is the pass catcher, and the Texans run-block better than pass protect. I had the Texans in Circa, and the Jaguars tried to keep them in it, but the Texans just can’t run a consistent offense.
I had Courtland Sutton active last week, bench this week. Just have too many good receivers in that league with Sutton as my No. 4 and Rome Odunze as my 5. But Bo Nix has come out sluggish. RJ Harvey is basically non-existent. I’d still buy low given JK Dobbins’ health history.
Omarion Hampton was a bad third-round pick that might pan out yet after Najee Harris went down with a likely season-ending non-contact Achilles injury. Harris was outplaying him at the time and set to get the goal-line carry too.
Quentin Johnston and Keenan Allen are at least equal to Ladd McConkey now, and if it goes this way again for another week, maybe ahead of him.
If you had a bad vibe on the Bills, the correct pivot was obviously the Seahawks who rolled easily. Sam Darnold is good enough to trust against bad teams, it seems.
Kenneth Walker got stuffed, but scored twice with Zach Charbonnet out. He’s looking like a strong fourth-round pick given his role now.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was sick ahead of the game, but put up a nice line on six targets. Game flow killed Cooper Kupp. Tory Horton caught a TD and took a punt to the house. He looks like a player.
Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave are good for empty volume.
Caleb Williams had a solid game against a soft Cowboys defense, though after what Russell Wilson did to them last week, it probably doesn’t mean much.
Luther Burden bought himself some time before being cut from fantasy teams — if game flow is better I’d expect more targets. DJ Moore is maybe 2a to Burden’s 2. Rome Odunze is the clear 1.
D’Andre Swift is getting enough work for where he was drafted. Kyle Monongai is the clear backup now.
CeeDee Lamb got hurt early, stuck his owners with a zero. Even though it’s reported he avoided a “major” injury, that doesn’t mean he won’t miss a few games.
Jake Ferguson is a top-five TE right now. The Cowboys have to throw often, and if Lamb misses time Ferguson will get a ton of volume (14 targets.) George Pickens didn’t go nuts, but he’s obviously a big beneficiary too.
Javonte Williams lost a fumble, but looks like he has his explosion back and is involved in the passing game.
I didn’t watch much of the Cardinals-Niners. Ricky Pearsall and Christian McCaffrey are the entire offense for one of the weaker 3-0 teams in NFL history. We’ll see what happens when they get healthy. In the meantime, 15 targets for McCaffrey is insane.
James Conner is done for the year after hurting his ankle. I have Trey Benson in a few places, and he’s obviously a top-20-ish RB with upside already.
Kyler Murray isn’t the guy. He can’t get on the same page as Marvin Harrison, and that might be because Harrison isn’t that good.
Russell Wilson followed up his turn-back-the-clock game with a disaster. I wouldn’t be surprised if Jaxson Dart started in Week 4. I have no idea why the Giants didn’t consider throwing the ball to Malik Nabers all game. Honestly, why even field a team?
Cam Skattebo looks like a beast. He ran people over all game and caught six passes, leading in rushing and receiving. Tyrone Tracy hurt his shoulder, but Skattebo was the better option anyway. DEI running backs for the win!
I stacked Chiefs in one league, but neglected to get Tyquan Thornton, their only good receiver, of all people. He’s what Marquise Brown and/or Xavier Worthy were supposed to be.
Isiah Pacheco looked okay, but he’s in a 50/50 timeshare that yields to Kareem Hunt for both goal line and third down. Toast.
There's always at least one line that destroys me, and this week was no different with "Strange"