Week 3 ATS Picks

I’m off to a slow start — 3-7 for my “normal” faux-Supercontest entries , 4-4-2 in the “ugly” one and 15-18 in my home picking pools. Week 2 was better than Week 1 at least, when I was on the wrong side of a few blowouts.

This week, I’m just going on feel. I went over each line a few times earlier in the week, and gave it one last look today.

Here are the “normal” entries (two pools):

I’m laying the wood with the Jaguars whose offense I expect to get in sync against the Texans’ defense at home. I like that they got destroyed by the Chiefs last week too. The Texans have showed a backbone, but this isn’t a gigantic line.

The Bills looked good last week at home against the Raiders, but they also lost to the Zach Wilson Jets. I don’t really buy the Sam Howell Football Team, but six on the road seems steep to me.

The Chargers are soft, but desperate, but so are the Vikings. This line should be the full 2.5 or whatever the going rate is for a road game halfway across the country.

The Bears are a laughingstock, but they’ll turn Justin Fields loose this week and score some points. Maybe.

The Steelers are better than the Raiders, I’d think, but this line treats them as equal teams.

Now for the ugly picks which I actually prefer:

The Jets are getting 2.5 at home against a toothless Patriots team. I’ve been believing in the Belichick magic, but it really hasn’t been in evidence since 2021. Maybe QB1 can rekindle it, though.

The Broncos are a desperate animal, and that and 6.5-points is probably enough.

The Panthers might be better in the short term with Andy Dalton, and Carolina probably has the better defense.

Deshaun Watson looked better to me last week, despite the loss. The Titans are a nasty team, but not especially skilled. Feels wrong to lay the 3.5, which is why it feels right.

The Falcons are the ugliest — a run-heavy team no one takes seriously in a pass-heavy league. The Lions are a fun team, but their star receiver is a possession guy, who can’t hurt you down the field very much.