Reflecting on Week 4, I’m reminded of the joke, “but other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?” Yes, I had a good fantasy week, and yes I went 4-1 on my Circa Millions picks (which doesn’t matter until next week, since I’m already more or less drawing dead in the overall and playing only for the quarterly prizes now), but the Giants lost their young superstar for the year, and my 4-0 Primetime team lost its first round pick.
The Primetime team *might* still survive with its fourth receiver now being Stefon Diggs (behind Puka Nacua, Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams) and Cam Skattebo, Trey Benson and Woody Marks as its backup RBs. But with Nabers it was a juggernaut, and now it’ll be a lot of start/sit headaches in the flex.
And its even worse for the Giants, coming off their first win and Jaxson Dart’s encouraging debut. You want the key young players to play and develop together, and now Dart will have to make do with a bunch of quasi-scrubs with limited upside.
Dart looked good in his debut, showed poise, decisiveness and good instincts, especially on the scrambles. He could have had a second TD pass too, but Wan’Dale Robinson couldn’t hang on. There were a couple times he took sacks when a veteran would have thrown it away, but if that’s the worst you can say about a rookie in his first start against a tough defense, that’s pretty good.
Cam Skattebo ran hard and caught two passes, but too many of the carries were into the teeth of the defense. Without Nabers, it’s going to be a lot like the 2022 Giants when the only thing the defense worried about was whether Dimes would keep it or hand it off to Saquon Barkley. (That team made the playoffs and beat the Vikings on the road, but without an outside threat, there was zero upside.)
People will pick up Darius Slayton and why not if you’re in a pinch, but he’s just a guy who can catch an occasional deep ball, not an alpha on whom you can count. Maybe Theo Johnson has some value too, but like Slayton nothing about which to get excited.
The Giants defense dominated against an injury-wracked Chargers offensive line, but it’s hard to say how much of that was due to LA being undermanned. Abdul Carter, Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Dexter Lawrence were in Justin Herbert’s face all day.
It pains me to say Omarion Hampton might be a league-winner because it’s so undeserved, given he was at best a 50/50 split before Najee Harris went down. Hampton looked great on his 54-yard TD run — really fast for a big back. He also caught five passes. If we redrafted again, he’s probably going early in the second round.
Quentin Johnston was the No. 21 overall pick in 2023, plays with an elite QB and is still just 24 years old. Hilarious how he had been so quickly left for dead. He saw 13 targets and is the team’s No. 1 WR right now. Another potential league-winning pick, and unlike Hampton, it is deserved.
Ladd McConkey had a couple drops, one an easy catch on a third down. He’s been one of the biggest healthy busts so far, and while it gets a little better, there’s almost no chance he returns even close to what you paid, with Johnston’s role secure and Keenan Allen not going anywhere. It would take injuries at this point.
Dart landed on his head on one play, and while he wanted to continue, they (the league?) called down from the booth and forced him to get checked out on the sideline. The nanny state is real.
Carson Wentz threw for a lot of yards, but the game was never really in serious doubt. Justin Jefferson had a massive first half, but was quiet in the second. Jordan Addison had a nice return, but it would have been a lot nicer had he not been tripped up from behind on his 81-yard catch at the one-yard line by a linebacker!
T.J Hockenson has quietly been a bust — he’s a distant third now that Addison is back.
Jordan Mason didn’t have the massive holes this week. He’s a capable but limited player.
Jaylen Warren was scratched, and Kenneth Gainwell went off, both as a runner and a receiver. This has to be bad for Warren who is hardly locked in as an established bell cow. Kaleb Johnson even got some chances and did okay.
DK Metcalf (five targets) just isn’t the every snap alpha you want him to be, but he did house a slant, easily outrunning the entire Vikings defense. At 6-4, 230, he’s one of the greatest pure size/speed combos ever to play the position.
Aaron Rodgers got bodyslammed by Jalen Redmond on a play, really felt like elder abuse. Rodgers is a graybeard like me, talking conspiracies on podcasts — he’s not supposed to get destroyed by 300-pound defensive linemen!
Fading the Panthers off their 30-0 win was the easiest ATS pick I made in years. Same with buying the Falcons low. Yes, it was still a stupid survivor pick, but you saw the actual level of those two teams in Week 4.
The big development in this game was the re-emergence of Stefon Diggs. It took him a few weeks to get going, but he seems all the way back from the ACL tear.
Saw this stat on Drake Maye — take it for what it’s worth:
The Pats backfield is a lot like the Redskins’ — three backs splitting carries, and you never know who will get it at the goal line. Obviously TreVeyon Henderson has the ceiling, but it’s still hard to start him.
Bryce Young is a bust. Best case is Mac Jones, and honestly I’d rather have Jones SU.
Vagenix was Penix again, not exactly 12-inch, but maybe seven or eight.
Bijan Robinson is automatic — another 181 YFS, finally scored on the ground.
Drake London was back to his usual form too — I don’t think you’ll regret the second-round pick on him if he stays healthy.
Kyle Pitts saw only five targets, but looked awfully smooth as a receiver and caught a TD. I had him on my bench for Mark Andrews, but Pitts is my default starter now, pending matchups.
There’s really nothing to say about the Redskins. What a boring team without Jayden Daniels. Maybe Luke McCaffrey becomes interesting at some point.
The Saints put up a good fight, putting a scare into the Bills for a while. Kendre Miller emerged and is an obvious pickup especially considering Alvin Kamara might get dealt.
James Cook and Josh Allen are money in the bank, back when it was actually backed by gold. The rest of the team is Vietnamese
dongDong.The Lions might be the best team in the league, the Week 1 hiccup against the Packers notwithstanding. The Browns defense is good, but that was irrelevant.
Amon-Ra St. Brown was the league-winning pick at the end of the first round. Wish I had taken him instead of Nabers at 1.9.
Jahmyr Gibbs is matchup proof, David Montgomery is not.
Jameson Williams will have his big plays, but unless guys get hurt, there’s no path to earning fourth-round value. Same with Sam LaPorta in the sixth.
Quinshon Judkins had 21 carries and four catches in a blowout loss. That’s good.
The Browns should replace Joe Flaccid now. He’s bad, and they’re only wasting development time for the rookies. Isaiah Bond could wind up being the team’s No. 1 receiver before long. Jerry Jeudy is just a garbage time hero during garbage seasons.
The Eagles let teams hang around too long, but seem to turn it on when they need to.
Saquon Barkley oddly hasn’t had room to run, but that’ll probably change any week now.
I don’t know what to say about AJ Brown — the Eagles seem only to use their receivers in case of emergency.
It was hilarious watching the Eagles punter run out the clock on an intentional safety with the entire Bucs defense trying to kill him for six seconds. Why not just put Jalen Hurts back there?
Might have said this last week, but Bucky Irving is the Bijan Robinson of the Bucs.
Chris Godwin (10 targets, three catches, 26 yards) might not be all the way back.
The other easy ATS call was the Texans against the Titans. The Texans offensive line is terrible, but at least they have a good defense. The Titans are barely in the top-32 best teams.
I have Woody Marks everywhere. Nick Chubb is still around, but Marks is more explosive at this stage and the clear pass catcher.
Calvin Ridley was going in the fourth round. Not as bad a pick as Jameson Williams as you could see it in theory, but the assumption Cam Ward was an upgrade was apparently way off. If the Titans offered Ward for Dart now, have to think the Giants would say no.
Danny Dimes struggled a little, though he was robbed of a TD when Adonai Mitchell celebrated a would-be amazing TD catch and run before he crossed the goal line. If a TD pass is worth six, maybe a TB-pass should be worth three.
Jonathan Taylor came back to earth too, though he had 17 carries and five catches.
Puka Nacua finally caught a TD to go along with a 15-13-170 line. He just makes 15-20 yard catches on every single drive. Davante Adams of course caught a TD too on more modest volume (six targets).
This game was tied 20-20 with the Rams backed up, and one play later, Matthew Stafford throws a perfect bomb to a wide open Tutu Atwell to win it. I was hoping for more Nacua/Adams, but you can’t argue with that.
The Ravens are on the ropes at 1-3, Lamar Jackson nursing a hamstring injury and key defensive players getting hurt. Derrick Henry looks fine once he gets a head of steam, but those carries have been fewer and farther between. At least he didn’t fumble on his eight carries.
My Chiefs stack team started poorly with Ja’Marr Chase (still think he’ll be fine, just not 1.1 fine) and McConkey (2.12), but might have some legs yet. Patrick Mahomes is in peak form, and Xavier Worthy (eight targets, two carries, led the team in rushing and receiving) is all the way back. Rashee Rice only out two more games too.
Aside from Worthy, eventually Rice and maybe Travis Kelce, the Chiefs might call any kind of play for virtually anyone including Hollywood Brown, Isiah Pacheco, Brashard Smith, Juju Smith-Schuster, Tyquan Thornton and Noah Gray. I dropped Brashard Smith in a league last week, and even though he’s getting more snaps, it’s hard to see anyone emerging from this morass.
Kareem Hunt was not listed because he’s always good for two yards on 3rd-and-1.
The Bears-Raiders was a slog. Rome Odunze caught his long TD pass, but Olamide Zaccheaus (six targets) and Cole Kmet (nine targets) are gumming up the works. DJ Moore needs to get traded, and Luther burdened the offense with two catches for negative four yards.
D’Andre Swift is getting volume but making the least of it. He did score though.
Ashton Jeanty finally broke out with three TDs and 155 YFS. He looks the part, but is hamstrung by the Raiders offensive line and erratic QB play of Geno Smith.
Brock Bowers (six targets) isn’t being used enough for some reason. It always fascinates me when coaches are unable to grasp the concept of feeding your difference-making elite players.
It’s bizarre how many blocked field goals there have been this year.
The only ATS pick I lost was the Packers. It was too obvious, I should have known.
Josh Jacobs had a monster game (22 carries, two TDs, four catches, 157 YFS), but everyone does against the Cowboys.
Matthew Golden made an appearance (five catches, 58 yards), but Romeo Doubs is still the quasi-No. 1 receiver there, and despite the three TDs largely unstartable except on bye weeks or in deep leagues. Tucker Kraft just missed two TDs, getting tackled at the one both times.
Jordan Love had a nice line, but again, the Cowboys.
Dak Prescott played a good game against a tough defense, and his offensive line did a good job on Micah Parsons.
Javonte Williams (20 carries, three catches, one TD), is awfully steady as a fantasy back.
George Pickens finally broke out in CeeDee Lamb’s absence — he’s a top-10 WR for the next few weeks. TE1, aka, Jake Ferguson, salvaged his day with a TD, but otherwise was just involved in dink and dunk.
Don’t know why, but that was one of the least exciting 80-point games I can remember, maybe in part because it ended in a tie, maybe because we never got to see the Brandon Aubrey 70-yard FGA.
. . .
Just realized I spaced on the Jaguars-Niners, two garbage teams.
Looks like Travis Etienne is still got a firm hold over Bhayshul Tuten, though seems like an injury waiting to happen like Conner-Benson.
Brian Thomas got *more* involved, but it’s still a struggle.
Travis Hunter is unstartable, though did have a career-high 42 receiving yards.
Christian McCaffrey (11 targets, 17 rushes) is the volume GOAT for as long as he holds up
I didn’t watch much of this, but Brock Purdy’s numbers (other than the picks) look pretty good.
It’s amazing these two crap teams are 3-1.