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Week 5 ATS Picks
I had a better week (3-2 in the Normals, 3-1-1 in the Ugly), but I need some 4-1 and 5-0 ones to get back into contention after an abysmal start.
Through four weeks, I’m 7-13 in Normal and 9-10-1 in the Ugly.
Here’s what I’m looking at this week.
Normal 1 and 2
I love the Giants in this spot to bounce back — people are destroying Daniel Jones for playing poorly in a situation where no QB in NFL history would have played well — and all the fantasy owners are bellyaching about Darren Waller who will still get his so long as he’s healthy.
The Dolphins are the right matchup for them, but Andrew Thomas is still out, and Saquon Barkley is still only questionable. Had Thomas been back this would have been my bet of the year, but now the Giants offensive line could get dominated again, and we could see another five-plus sacks and a few turnovers as Jones tries to force something to happen. I won’t bet the moneyline with Thomas out, but I’ll take the 12.5 points. The Giants will be as prepared as they can.
The Bengals have been awful this year, but Joe Burrow says he’s healthy, and that’s good enough for me.
I like what I saw out of QB1 last week against the Chiefs, and the Broncos nearly lost to the Bears. I think the Jets show up.
The Jaguars haven’t really gotten into an offensive rhythm, but this is a big line on a neutral field that’s not even really neutral for the Jaguars who are used to it.
I took the Falcons as a weird ugly play even though CJ Stroud and the Texans defense are playing well. I have a hunch Bijan Robinson gets loose.
The Steelers are terrible, just got destroyed by the Texans, but 4.5 at home against their rival is enough to go ugly.
The Rams getting only four looked too small at first glance, but the Eagles were life and death with the Football Team last week, and now they have to go on the road. Cooper Kupp is back, and teams have thrown on Philly this year.
The Raiders are always the ugliest, and I think their pass rush will get home on Jordan Love. Plus Jimmy G is probably back.
The Panthers were a real hold-my-nose pick especially since I have the Lions in Survivor. I don’t have much conviction in this, but the Panthers defense isn’t terrible, and the Lions could overlook them. It doesn’t get uglier.
I wanted one side of this grotesque Saints-Pats game, and I almost took the Pats, but their injuries to Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez are big, and the Saints should move the ball.
High conviction picks: Bengals, Jaguars, Jets