It wasn’t a great week for me — I went 2-2 in the Circa Millions with the Chiefs -3.5 (my best bet) pending tonight. I had some bad luck in Chargers-Redskins (my least favorite pick) with the Chargers roughing the kicker on a would-be punt-return TD by Ladd McConkey. But that bad luck pales in comparison to my good luck with the Titans +7.5 at Cardinals. The Cardinals were up 21-6, with Emari Demercado breaking toward the end zone to go up 28-6, but he celebrated his long would-be TD early, voluntarily fumbling at the one-inch line for a touchback. The Titans scored a TD on the next drive (but missed the PAT, which was a good thing) to cut it to 21-12. Then, in field goal range, (which was enough to cover), Cam Ward throws a pick, but the interceptor fumbles, the ball gets kicked around, and the Titans recover in the end zone for a TD! Now it’s 21-19, cover in hand! And as a bonus, the Titans got the game-winning FG later to knock out the Arizona survivor entries in my re-buy pools! Just an insane cover and eventual outright win. It’s a good reminder that deserve’s got nothing to do with it, and luck (good or bad) is just idle chatter. You are not handicapping games, but reaching into the future and bringing it back to the present. Either you time travel or you don’t. Statistical analysis is for suckers and midwits, something that took me 15 years to learn (or unlearn), depending upon how you look at it.
The Browns defense is good, but the Carson Wentz Vikings handled it better than the Packers (and even the Ravens until the fourth quarter).
Dillon Gabriel wasn’t terrible in his first start, but didn’t look like an NFL QB to me. Too much dink and dunk, nothing down the field. He’s listed at 5-11, but I’d bet even money he’s shorter than me (5-9.75.)
Isaiah Bond didn’t do much, but he saw eight targets. If Shadeur Sanders gets a shot, Bond still has upside. The Browns should trade Jerry Jeudy if they can get a mid-round pick.
David Njoku was the biggest beneficiary of the QB change — he was Gabriel’s security blanket. Harold Fannin caught a first-half TD but was invisible in the second.
Quinshon Judkins is a true bell cow, and now it makes sense why he was ahead of TreVeyon Henderson in college. Judkins runs hard and is tough to tackle.
I thought Carson Wentz was toast, but he’s been passable as a fill-in starter. The Vikings offense is ideal for QBs.
Jordan Mason runs hard, but the Browns are a tough front.
Justin Jefferson is QB-proof. He’s a top-10 all-time WR, maybe top-five.
Jordan Addison got benched for some reason in the first half, but redeemed himself with a TD in the second.
TJ Hockenson is just a guy.
The Giants outplayed the Saints but couldn’t stop turning the ball over.
Jaxson Dart played okay — the first pick was on fourth down, and the DB, who the retarded announcer praised for making the pick, should have knocked it down. The second pick was desperation. Dart also fumbled for no reason while running with the ball, which was bad. And Cam Skattebo fumbled too.
Skattebo has a lot of PPR value, but he wasn’t finding holes. The Giants O-line pass blocked better than they run blocked Sunday which is unusual for them.
The Giants have no receivers of which to speak, and it got worse when Darius Slayton had to leave with a hamstring injury, making it a dink-and-dunk fest to tight ends. Theo Johnson caught two short TDs, maybe he’ll have a use, but Daniel Bellinger led the team in receiving with 52 yards.
Kendre Miller looked good and could have a big role if Alvin Kamara is traded.
Taysom Hill might be worth a pickup even though he did little because I could see him getting some QB work if Rattler gets hurt and Tyler Shough isn’t ready.
Chris Olave saw 11 targets, but not much was downfield. Rashid Shaheed is the big-play guy.
You can take the Raiders out of Oakland, but they are still the Raiders. Geno Smith looks like toast.
Ashton Jeanty’s team is a real headwind.
Jonathan Taylor had a monster fantasy game, but modest real-life one. He’s not the RB1 because he doesn’t get enough passing game work, but he’s never been on an offense this good before.
Danny Dimes is vindicating the Gettlechad every week. QBs are *much* more like RBs (situation dependent) than the “analytics” nerds seem to think.
The Jets are the league’s only 0-5 team now. What a catastrophically bad franchise. They couldn’t even generate consistent pre-garbage-time offense against the Cowboys.
Justin Fields and Garrett Wilson are garbage-time kings.
Breece Hall is a top-10 back somehow, but he lost a fumble.
Mason Taylor is a player, might wind up as a top-10 TE.
Javonte Williams is a top-five-ish RB, behind only Jahmyr Gibbs, Jonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson and Christian McCaffrey for sure. James Cook, Hall, Saquon Barkley, De’Von Achane, Bucky Irving, Kyren Williams and Josh Jacobs are in his same range.
George Pickens got a TD, but someone named Ryan Flournoy (don’t know who that is) saw nine targets and led the team in receiving. Jake Ferguson is TE1 now.
Brandon Aubrey missing a PAT was unexpected.
The Eagles style of turning it on when they need to didn’t work against a stout Broncos defense.
Courtland Sutton is earning his draft slot and then some — one of those 10 receivers on whom you can count every week.
JK Dobbins is holding up fine on a heavy workload.
Saquon Barkley looked great on his 47-yard wheel route TD grab, but why only six carries?
The AJ Brown/Devonta Smith split could be due to Patrick Surtain. Brown will go off at some point, but might be too little too late.
Darren Baller had a monster first half, but disappeared in the second.
Jaylen Waddle looked the part of a WR1, but you’d like to see double-digit targets.
Rico Dowdle had 234 YFS, monster day. You have to think Chuba Hubbard will yield carries to him when he returns.
Bryce Young isn’t good, and that’s dragging down Tet McMillan.
My best call was Texans -2. What an easy cover.
My worst call was starting Woody Marks everywhere after seeing him go off on all my benches last week. You’d think in a 44-point blowout he’d have done *something.* Started him over Kenny Walker, Tony Pollard and Stefon Diggs in places.
Cooper Rush is trough Joe Flacco right now. Not an NFL QB. The Ravens would have to go on an epic run when Lamar Jackson returns to snag a wild card. Derrick Henry in perma-negative game-flow is a fourth or fifth round pick.
Calvin Ridley finally showed up on your bench. He was this close to a career in low-stakes sports gambling too.
Tony Pollard is a reliable grinder on a bad team. Tyjae Spears had a small role in his first week back, but maybe it’ll expand.
Cam Ward is going down the Bryce Young career path.
The Cardinals are not a serious team. Marvin Harrison got involved early on some back-shoulder and jump balls, but he’s not a separator.
I laid the wood with Seattle (-3.5) because that line seemed absurdly big against a superior Bucs team. When the line makes no sense, usually it’s signal. But Jalen Milroe backwards lateraled a fumble, and Darnold threw a late pick off a helmet, and that was that.
Darnold otherwise played very well — he’s another example, like Dimes, of situation being everything for non-elite QBs.
Kenneth Walker is much better than Zach Charbonnet, but Charbonnet got the goal line touch.
AJ Barner is emerging as a playable TE.
JSN is like a rich man’s Courtland Sutton — always producing.
Cooper Kupp saw nine targets, but all short stuff.
Baker Mayfield has graduated from Dimes/Darnold to Jared Goff status, i.e., yes, he’s situationally dependent, but elite when the situation is right.
Emeka Egbuka did a lot with seven targets. I thought of him as a Zay Flowers type, but maybe he’s another level up. The Bucs missed Bucky Irving as the GigaRachaad isn’t the same level runner.
Ja’Marr Chase is a top-10 all-time receiver, maybe top-five. He was even playing defense and tackling on some plays.
Jake Browning lost confidence for three quarters, but got some of his groove back late. If he keeps the job, I’d expect Chase and maybe even Tee Higgins to produce going forward.
Chase Brown got seven catches, but is just a guy.
Even in a game where he saw only 12 carries and two targets, Gibbs had 17 PPR points.
David Montgomery ran for a TD and threw a TD pass because he was a high-school QB in Cincinnati growing up, and Dan Campbell thought it would be cool to get him one in front of his hometown fans. You gotta love having fantasy players on the Lions.
Amon Ra St. Brown is the steadiest receiver in the league. Sam LaPorta finally broke out, but Jameson Williams has no consistent role on this team.
Isaac TeSlaa is probably very good, but obviously would need an injury to prove it.
Jacory Croskey Merritt broke out on your bench. He should be the guy going forward, but he’ll probably pull a Woody Marks if I start him this week.
With Terry McLaurin out, Deebo Samuel is far and away the team’s No. 1 — 11 targets, next highest player had two.
Jayden Daniels had a modest game, but made no mistakes.
The Chargers offensive line is a problem, though it didn’t cause Justin Herbert to throw the soul-crushing pick at the goal line.
Maybe Kimani Vidal is worth a look — he was the more effective backup to Omarion Hampton than Hassan Haskins.
Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled yet again, and Antonio Gibson got hurt, but TreVeyon Henderson was just a role player. Stevenson scored two TDs afterwards.
Stefon Diggs is finally back. He’s the team’s clear No. 1 (12 targets) and should be a top-15 WR going forward.
James Cook finally had an off game — if the TDs aren’t there, he doesn’t have the pass-catching floor.
Dalton Kincaid is a top-five TE now, though there are probably 10 top-five TEs, or more aptly, 10 TEs in the 6-10 range. He’s the only Bills pass catcher you can start.
Marvin Harrison Jr is a poor man’s Deandre Hopkins….Hopkins better route runner and separator. Very similar style player.
Not 5-10 but rather 5-9.75 🤣 I was always 5-11.5 but never felt comfortable just saying 6'