The world is getting weird, so why shouldn’t the NFL?
This was the box score for one game:
I’ve been betting in the prediction markets, and I can assure you comboing Irving YES at whatever his max was (160 rushing yards?) and Gainwell at his (80?) along with NO Mayfield and ALL the receivers at their minimums with Buccaneers -15.5 would have paid out whatever max the makers pay out. You never have two RBs go over 100 rushing yards, you never have a team win by 16 when then QB does nothing, you never have a QB do literally nothing.
But that wasn’t the only oddity. Lamar Jackson on his first series back suffers what could be a season-ending injury, then backup Tyler Huntley, four passes in, hurts his toe and the AFC North favorite has emergency QB Joe Fagnano under center. Huntley might be out a few weeks too, and now the Ravens are essentially drawing dead. The AFC’s Eagles.
There were other things like the Cowboys giving up 20 points in the fourth quarter, but the Cardinals missing the game-winning PAT with eight seconds left, sending it to overtime. Someone mentioned the Cardinals had never lost in the new Cowboys’ stadium (4-0), and I dismissed it as obviously the players are different, the time is different and the sample is small. But no, even if they have no chance to make the playoffs, even if they have to bring in Gardner Minshew’s carcass to get it done, they apparently really do refuse to lose in this one particular stadium.
Overall, it was a mediocre week for me (2-3 in Circa), but I’m getting less bothered by what does or does not happen on a given Sunday. The games always go exactly as they were supposed to go, and if you don’t like it, you can invent a portal to a different multiverse.
I had the Ravens +3.5 in Circa, but it was pretty clear once Fagnano was slinging the rock, that wasn’t cashing. Incidentally, if Ryan Flournoy is “Gluten-Free,” Fagnano is “Microscopic Homosexual.” Bottom line, the Ravens are not going to win with Microscopic Homosexual, so I bought some Steelers shares for 30c as the Bengals (55c) seem a bit pricey with that defense and the fragility of their QB. But I might put in a limit order for say 50 on Cincy.
You’d expect a drop-off from Zay Flowers, but zero catches on five targets was extreme. Derrick Henry salvaged his day with a TD, but even if the Ravens (likely) upgrade from MH, it’s obviously a major downgrade ROS for both.
The Bills are annoying. Josh Allen gets his stats, James Cook is a rock solid second-round pick (slightly disappointing for where he went), and you never know whether or which of the pass catchers will show up. DJ Moore finally stayed in the game for once and caught a TD, while so did Dalton Kincaid, but keep in mind they each caught only four passes.
Allen is also annoying because I don’t have him in any leagues. In the Primetime I took Moore over him in Rd 4 because there were so many late QBs I liked. Why take Allen in Rd 4 when you can get Justin Herbert in Round 10!
Tony Pollard is winning leagues during the challenging midseason bye weeks. That’s five TDs the last two, and he even caught three passes for 20 yards. No wonder the Titans don’t want to deal him!
Cam Ward reminds me a lot of Bryce Young — bad rookie year, flashes here and there in Year 2. He’s got the potential to be a volatile low-level starter whose elite pedigree keeps him around long after the team should have moved on.
I won’t make the Dike joke again, especially after he had a good game with Carnell Tate out.
I had a combo queued up with Burrow over 400 yards and Ja’Marr Chase over 10 catches and 140. I didn’t click “accept” because I wasn’t getting good enough odds. Chase (16-11-141-1), by the way, is an incredible WR2 on his own team. WR1, aka Tee Higgins (11-10-155-2), catches everything thrown his way now.
Chase Brown saw 12 carries to Samaje Perine’s four, and caught eight passes for 46 yards. The buy-low window is probably closed because people remember what happened last year. That said, the sell-high window just opened.
Peak Tom Brady would not have played better than Gardner Minshew did in relief of a struggling Jacoby Brissett — 17 of 23 for 188 yards, three TDs in the fourth quarter and an overtime win.
Jeremiyah Love left with yet another ankle injury, and Tyler Allgeier (11-147-1, 5-5-47-1) went bananas on your bench. So even if you drafted Love and backed him up with Allgeier, you got nothing, just like you got nothing last week when you started Allgeier. This is how Love turns to hate.
Michael Wilson (15-8-11-1) broke two ribs during the game, but made the game tying catch at the back of the end zone. Brissett’s top target by far the last two years was Trey McBride, but Minshew was looking for Wilson the entire fourth quarter.
The Cowboys (26/27c) are the NFC East favorites no longer. The Giants (51/52) are well ahead of them, with the Redskins also gaining some ground at (17/18). Dan Quinn is a retard, but I still think they’re cheap.
There’s not much to say about the Cowboys’ offense — they had the game in hand, but didn’t make many explosive plays. CeeDee Lamb (11-7-58-0) had a modest day, but STILL 11 targets in a game they led the entire way is pretty good.
I can’t believe the Vikings punted down four on fourth and five from their own 33 with 3:06 left. I know it was a low-scoring game, but you really want to have your tired defense which thrives on pressuring the QB have to stop Jahmyr Gibbs? And even had the Vikings failed to convert, holding the Lions to a three-and-out FG would only have put them down seven. Big mistake.
Kyler Murray’s stat line wasn’t terrible. but against the Lions in a dome, underwhelming. They are the weakest time in the NFC North, despite their record.
Amon Ra St. Brown lined up 20 yards deep in the backfield and caught a running-head-start screen pass. Lots of people are claiming to have invented that idea, but I swear I thought of it years ago. (My idea was to use Devin Hester or some elite kick returner that way, just chuck it back to him and have him treat it like punt, only the defense isn’t set up to cover a punt.)
Remember when you got that discount on Ashton Jeanty due to the preseason injury! Jeanty had two carries to Mike Washington’s 25. Jeanty did catch four passes for 64 yards, and I think Jeff Erickson aptly compared him to Danny Woodhead on Twitter.
The Raiders decided to use Brock Bowers again. I heard someone say you should sell Bowers in dynasty because he could lose TE eligibility if he keeps lining up at WR. If you’re in the RotoWire Dynasty League and reading this, I’ll be the sucker that takes him off your hands!
The Jets are bizarre. Adonai Mitchell goes 9-7-142-1 while their rising star rookie Omar Cooper (two straight 100-yard plus TD games) doesn’t get a single target.
Braelon Allen went nuts against a soft Raiders run defense, but apparently Breece Hall is expected back for Week 9.
Harold Fannin (12-10-154-0) went crazy in this game. It was almost like Browns management finally got around to reading the fantasy industry hype about him.
Jaylen Warren looks like early-season Kenny Walker. The Steelers pass catchers are all low-upside, high risk, however.
Penix can only perform with a clean pocket and in perfect conditions. He’s peak Tua with worse knees minus the brain damage.
The Buccaneers defense has annihilated the two NFC South favorites in back to back weeks.
Bucky Irving would go at the 1-2 turn if we were to redraft ROS. Surely ahead of Chase Brown, Derrick Henry and Javonte Williams.
Has their ever been a game the last half century where both backs on one team eclipsed 140 yards?
Respect to Baker Mayfield for taking the zero like a man. He could easily have completed a short pass in the fourth quarter.
The COLOLTS!
Long overdue to bring in Anthony Richardson, though I don’t have much faith the guy getting baked in his car two weeks ago and nearly taking his own eye out last year is the answer. That said, I drafted him in the RotoWire Dynasty League cheap this year, so I’m here for the feel-good story.
The preseason Parker Washington hype was misplaced. Maybe he is really good, but we had good reason to think Brian Thomas was really good heading into last year, and Liam Coen DGAF. CeeDee Lamb got 11 targets in a game the Cowboys were leading from start to finish! Washington got two targets, albeit in an even more lopsided blowout.
I had the Chargers +6.5 in Circa. I really believe in being contrarian, playing off the NFL’s “reflexivity,” to use a George Soros term, but there must be no-gos, and the Chargers, I’ve learned for the 75th time, are one.
Ladd McConkey had 86 yards but 54 of them were on a botched Hail Mary he caught at the half-yard line as time expired in the half. You can’t make this up.
Matthew Stafford had another modest day, and you wonder whether age is finally catching up him. Puka Nacua (12-11-80-1) did fine, but his longest catch was for 18 yards. Of course, against the Chargers it makes no difference.
I went to bed before the end of the KC-Denver game, didn’t watch the comeback or the game-ending goal-line stand. It seems like Denver’s defense is legitimately good, and Sean Payton and Bo Nix have enough tricks up their sleeves to contend.
Jonah Coleman is the rare mid-round prospect with this much fantasy hype to show a pulse. Seems like it’s his job (11 carries to JK Dobbins’ 2) with RJ Harvey out indefinitely. Coleman also led the Broncos in receiving with 63 yards.
Patrick Mahomes bounced back from the drubbing in Seattle, though much of his production was on long catch and runs from backup tailback Emmett Johnson. Rashee Rice (8-7-53-1) returned from his hamstring injury and is clearly still the WR1 on the team. Kenny Walker didn’t have a lot of room (21-69-0) and surely benefited early in the year from a soft schedule (Colts, Raiders, Dolphins.)
I had WAS -6 in Circa, and they were actually down 10-0 before scoring 27 unanswered to win easily.
Jayden Daniels played okay and spread the ball around to his four main targets: Treylon Burks, Antonio Williams, Stefon Diggs and Chig Okonkwo. That’s a fairly narrow tree now that Terry McLaurin is out for the year, they’re not a great running team and the defense is average at best.
The Eagles are wasteland.