Week 9 Observations

Catastrophic

Almost everything that happened in Week 9 was bad for me. My NFFC teams, especially my top ones, did poorly. The Chiefs stack team is under 100 points with only Javonte Williams to go. The Beat Seslowsky team is down 14 with only the Cowboys kicker, thanks to zeroes from BOTH Rome Odunze (more on that below) and Evan Engram. The Primetime team is up 22 facing Williams and Jake Ferguson — probably a 2/1 dog. Another one (also with Odunze) that started the day in fourth place lost by three points to a team that started Tory Horton last night. I also swapped in Devin Neal over Hollywood Brown at the last minute in the flex which was more than the difference. Only one of my teams won, and that was against an opponent who had Brock Purdy in his lineup, i.e., a dead team.

The Giants got crushed, I was 1-4 in Circa Millions (laughably bad picks, more on that below) and Brian Thomas (two leagues) sprained his ankle after his only good catch and run of the year. The only silver lining was my Brock Bowers/Lamar Jackson/Rashee Rice Steak League team which dominated Tim Schuler’s after he mocked it the night before. Thought I was looking like a buyer, but turns out I might be an eater yet.

• The Broncos are a bizarre team. RJ Harvey led them in receiving with 51 yards, and Courtland Sutton with one 30-yard TD catch was second. It would be nice to see them narrow the tree somewhat.

• The Broncos have a good defense, but as someone counting on Woody Marks with Cam Skattebo out, that was bad. They were even giving goal line attempts to some British guy. It probably didn’t help that CJ Stroud got concussed.

• The week I finally start Dimes over Drake Maye in a league, he regresses back to his Giants days — five sacks, three picks and a lost fumble against one of the league’s worst defenses. I do think the Steelers are the kind of team that could click defensively at any point, but they’ve been bad YTD.

• Jonathan Taylor finally had an off game as the Colts were trailing the entire time. He’s not used much in the passing game, so he’s more dependent on game script than other top backs.

• The Colts have narrowed the tree to four targets: Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, Josh Downs and Tyler Warren. It’s split, but far more manageable than say Denver’s situation.

• Jaxson Dart would not only be the 1.1 if teams were to re-run the draft tomorrow, but he’d cost three firsts if someone wanted to trade up to land him. Unless he gets derailed by injuries — a serious risk given his rugged style of play — he’ll be one of the GOATS of his generation. Easily the most valuable QB prospect since Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert, and given Burrow’s injury history, I’d prefer Dart SU, and that’s not even considering Dart’s on the first year of his rookie deal. Not only is Dart putting up numbers every week, but he’s doing it with Darius Slayton dropping TD passes (or getting a TD called back for fake OPI) and Theo Johnson dropping half of what comes his way. If Malik Nabers were healthy Dart would already be a top-five fantasy QB.

• I foolishly took the Giants +2.5 because Dart is so good, but their entire secondary was out, and they can’t tackle anyone. At least Bobby Okereke got me 14 tackles in the Steak League.

• Christian McCaffrey is the only 49er you can start with confidence right now — he led the team in rushing and receiving and scored twice again. Healthy McCaffrey is always the 1.1.

• Bijan Robinson caught eight passes, but it was the second straight modest game for him. Granted the Pats are good against the run.

• Drake London went bananas against star corner Christian Gonzalez. I didn’t track how much Gonzalez was shadowing him, but it was supposed to be a tough matchup, and London went 14-9-118-3.

• Kyle Pitts is involved, but just somewhat. He never has that massive game, even when London was out. I should have played Slayton in my flex over him, but I guess I should be happy I didn’t play Kayshon Boutte who I also considered.

• Maybe the Falcons should have kept their Younghoe after all.

• Cracks me up that TreVeyon Henderson got his chance, saw 14 carries and six targets, but Terrell Jennings scored the TD. I was close to FOMOing into Henderson once or twice but thankfully avoided.

• Drake Maye is great, but he’s spreading the ball around a lot too. Stefon Diggs got a TD, but even with Boutte out early with a hamstring injury, Diggs saw only four targets.

• I had the Chargers -8.5, and while that was bad, it wasn’t that bad given how the Titans got two of their TDs.

• The Chargers were in command most of the second half, so Justin Herbert had only 29 attempts, distributed more or less the way you’d expect.

• Kimani Vidal struggled and fumbled, was outplayed by Jaret Patterson, but I wouldn’t read much into it. If anything it bodes well for Omarion Hampton should he ever come back at 100 percent.

• The Titans don’t generate much offense as it is, so to lose two possessions due to special teams and defensive scores capped their ceiling at floor level.

• Maybe Rico Dowdle is really good. Funny the Cowboys are pleased with Javonte Williams (who is playing well), but they already had the solution on their roster. Chuba Hubbard is now just a backup.

• The Packers have a good defense, but Bryce Young did nothing — 102 passing yards, one pick, no TDs.

• Jordan Love was so good in Pittsburgh the week before, but so ineffective this week at home against the Panthers. It’s annoying he targets Romeo Doubs so often, but maybe it’s because Doubs is the only guy who can stay healthy. Matthew Golden left the game with a shoulder injury too. It’s obvious to me their best receivers are Christian Watson and Jayden Reed, but those guys are always hurt.

• Josh Jacobs — boring af but always gets his points.

• The Packers fancy themselves a contender, but they’ve lost to the Browns and Panthers now.

• The Lions haven’t looked like themselves the last three games — Jared Goff has been under pressure a lot more than usual.

• They finally as promised got Jameson Williams involved, but he had to make an insane TD catch and lunge to salvage his fantasy day on six targets. They barely used Jahmyr Gibbs in the passing game — seems like they have to choose now whereas in the past everyone got in on it.

• The Vikings were so reluctant to play JJ McCarthy, they trotted out Carson Wentz’s injured carcass long after McCarthy’s ankle had healed. Now Wentz is out for the year, they’re forced to start McCarthy, and they win in Detroit.

• Aaron Jones hurt his shoulder, but looked good beforehand. Apparently the injury isn’t that serious, and he could be back next week.

• McCarthy completed only 14 passes, so there wasn’t much to go around for his receivers. Jordan Addison saw only four targets, while Justin Jefferson had nine.

• Imagine hearing the Bears won 47-42, having a healthy Rome Odunze going in two leagues and finding out he scored zero points. WTF?

• So often when that scrub pickup like Kyle Monangai is in a smash spot, and everyone plays him, he does nothing. But Monangai had 198 YFS even if he didn’t score a TD.

• Caleb Williams had a massive game when you include his TD catch on a trick play. Of course my Chiefs stack team faced him and Bowers. (Not that it matters because it would have lost against almost anyone.)

• I wanted badly to start Colston Loveland over Jake Ferguson in my Stacker Sports league, but I didn’t have the balls. That game-winning TD catch wasn’t totally unforgivable by the Bengals defense, given a FG was enough to beat them. Would have been much worse had they been up four, for example. But don’t get me wrong, it was still pretty bad.

• Why are they targeting every Tom, Dick and Olamide but not Rome? They didn’t even have the Burden of a third receiver, and Cole Kmet left early with an injury.

• Joe Flacco looked so done on the Browns, and he put up 470 and four.

• Chase Brown seems to have found new life too — eight catches for 75 yards even if the going on the ground was still rough.

• Tee Higgins made a great catch, reaching out over the DB as if he didn’t exist for one of his two TDs. Brown actually led the team with 14 targets, then Higgins with nine, then Ja’Marr Chase with only eight. I’ve been so spoiled by Chase these last two years I’m pissed when he goes 8-6-111-0. But he should have more than that if the Bengals scored 42.

• There’s nothing to say about the Saints.

• Puka Nacua got hurt again — he’s a great player, but reminds me of when I would draft Saquon Barkley and had to hold my breath every time he got tackled. Maybe he won’t miss much time, but who knows?

• Davante Adams is steady, durable and you know he’s getting those goal line targets.

• Matthew Stafford is quietly having a better career than Eli Manning, Philip Rivers or Ben Roethlisberger. Shoo-in Hall of Famer when he’s done.

• Kyren Williams yielded a ton of snaps to Blake Corum but still finished with a 25-114-1 line. I guess when you play the Saints you run a lot of offensive plays.

• The Jaguars are a fraudulent 5-3, might have lost to the Raiders had they made a better play call on the two-point conversion attempt.

• Travis Etienne is getting the volume as a runner and receiver, but it’s a tough slog. Bhayshul Tuten scored a short TD but wasn’t any better.

• Parker Washington paced the team with nine targets. If Brian Thomas is out for any length of time, he and the dynamic Brown guy are all they have left.

• Cam Big made a 68-yard FG to set an NFL record. Have this weird feeling it’ll last only one day, as Brandon Aubrey plays tonight.

• Geno Smith put in his first credible performance of the year, not coincidentally the first time he’s had a healthy Brock Bowers.

• Bowers put up a 13-12-127-3 line, and now you remember why you took him in the second round. Comparisons to Tyler Warren or Sam LaPorta are ridiculous — more like AJ Brown if Brown were 6-4 instead of 6-1.

• Ashton Jeanty had an okay game, but he’s not jumping off the screen yet a la Gibbs or Bijan Robinson.

• The Bills beat the Chiefs at the line of scrimmage. The pass rush hurried Patrick Mahomes, while Josh Allen had more time and a better rushing attack.

• Dalton Kincaid had a big game — he’s by far the most trustworthy pass catcher they have now that he’s healthy again.

• James Cook had 13.5 fantasy points to show for his 114 rushing yards as Josh Allen had two rushing TDs, and Ty Johnson the other.

• Mahomes played well enough, but they didn’t have an answer for the Bills pass rush.

• Rashee Rice caught four passes for 80 yards including a 4th-and-17 conversion and padded his stats with a rushing TD. But the offense never got into a consistent rhythm.

• Travis Kelce is still the guy Mahomes looks to when he’s scrambling around, but same problem for him as Rice. Xavier Worthy saw seven targets, but caught only three. They’re having trouble finding the right role for him. Yes, he’s blazing fast, but he’s small, and they have Hollywood Brown and Tyquan Thornton to run deep routes too. And they have Rice and Kelce for the intermediate stuff.

• Kareem Hunt ran well and scored a TD, but gameflow limited his workload.

• I had the Chiefs -2.5 at Buffalo like a donkey.

• Even worse, I had the Redskins +3 at home against the Seahawks, and they got blown out of the building.

• Sam Darnold had an insane first half, was on pace for 500 yards and eight TDs without an incomplete pass.

• JSN could stand to catch a few more TDs, but he’s like a more efficient ARSB. He’s averaging 12.2 YPT, by far the most in the league. (Second is George Pickens at 10.9, third DeVonta Smith at 10.7.)

• Kenny Walker looks the part, but never gets the fantasy points.

• AJ Barner got a rushing TD. Strange this mini-trend of TEs being used as short-yardage/goal-line backs.

• Horton made the most of his four targets with Cooper Kupp out.

• RGIV unfortunately is hurt yet again — this time with a dislocated elbow, fortunately on his non-throwing arm. He’ll almost certainly miss some time, maybe even the rest of the year. Good reminder why he shouldn’t have been drafted in the range of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts — there’s a skill to surviving in the NFL, and one year isn’t enough proof of work. It’s the same way I feel about closers in baseball — draft the old warhorse over the one-year phenom.