What If I Draw An Early Pick?

I’m in the Alsace for another day — the towns here almost look fake, like something out of a Disney cartoon or the backdrop from a movie set. And then you realize these buildings are 500 years old, and Disney and movie sets drew on them to create idyllic mini-utopias for their stories. One town is more picturesque and overly quaint than the next. It’s too much, and yet it’s real.

. . .

I’ve purposely chosen to pick at the end of the drafts — my first three NFFCs had me at 9th, 11th and 9th, respectively. But I’m in a Primetime on September 1, and it’s entirely possible I get my last choice of where to pick and wind up near the front. What do I do in that case?

Let’s say, worst case scenario, I get pick 2, my last choice.

Here’s the latest ADP:

Round 1 — I might take Ja’Marr Chase at 2, but why is the market just assuming Joe Burrow will be 100 percent for Week 1 and beyond? It’s the most bizarre phenomenon. Chase still goes at 2, Tee Higgins at 26 and Burrow himself in the fourth round. And yet there’s no guarantee he’s back or at full capacity. How is there not a discount on all three players?

Christian McCaffrey could easily be the 1.1, but he’s not built for the workload he gets, and he was hurt for two years before last year’s heavy useage. I might just go Tyreek Hill despite his concussed QB or Bijan Robinson. You can see why I don’t want to pick at the front unless I’m at the very top with Justin Jefferson.

Round 2 — Unless Jaylen Waddle makes it back to me (he won’t), I might just take Calvin Ridley who’s moved all the way up from the late fourth round. If he’s gone, and I took Hill in Round 1, I’d consider Jonathan Taylor.

Round 3 — Give me Rhamondre Stevenson if he makes it back to me. Ezekiel Elliott is the perfect signing because it all but guarantees Stevenson the valuable third-down work. If he’s gone, Amari Cooper seems like a nice floor pick.

Round 4 — If I got Stevenson, give me Cooper, but if I got Cooper, I might settle for Travis Etienne who still has a high ceiling if he gets the third-down work.

Round 5,6 — It starts to matter less where you draft as you get into the middle rounds, but I’m looking at Kenneth Walker and Javonte Williams for backs, and I might even stack Trevor Lawrence with Ridley if Lawrence falls to me. I hate the receivers in the sixth. Maybe I’d take Mike Evans, but he’s long in the tooth.

. . .

As you can see, if I’m unlucky enough to get this pick, I’d be giving up a lot of ADP value to get my guys. It’s fine to do it for a couple picks — ADP is often wrong — but it’s usually not a good idea to try it virtually every round.

There’s some chance I just go all upside and take McCaffrey in the first and a QB like Lamar Jackson in the fourth, but I’m not there yet, and I’d probably need to have an epiphany between now and draft day to do so.

In the meantime, let’s hope the KDS Gods are good to me.