Wild Card Observations
Maybe it was always this way, and it’s just a change in my perspective, but it feels like there’s something off about the NFL now. Like the Panthers easily could have beaten the Rams, it came down to the final drive. Either the Bills or Jaguars (apparently, I only saw the first quarter) could have won that game, same with the Packers and Bears and 49ers-Eagles. Finally there was a somewhat decisive win by the Pats last night, thanks to the Chargers not having an offensive line.
Most people, I’d imagine, feel the opposite — that these back and forth close games are entertaining and exciting. But to me a close game is only great if the two teams playing in it blew out some prior opponents to get there.
I don’t know. I remember bad Super Bowls in the ‘80s that were all blowouts, but you got the sense that whoever won was decisively the best team that year. They were the Goliaths you’d have to slay in next year’s playoffs. The year the Giants won their second Super Bowl, they beat a Bills team that had beaten the 13-4 Raiders 51-3 in the AFC Championship game. That meant something, even though they won it on a missed FG. But now that every game, it seems, is decided by that margin, it all blends together. A million what-ifs, woulda/coulda/shouldas.
Puka Nacua didn’t have that great of a real-life game. Only 111 yards on 18 targets. The Panthers also held Davante Adams to 72 yards on 13 targets. The Rams still found a way to win, but it was dicey with a minute to go and LA needing a TD.
The Rams defense has fallen off a lot during the second half of the year. They’re more like the 49ers than the Seahawks at this point.
I had left Bryce Young for dead again this year, but he keeps scratching against the roof of the coffin, and I’m forced to open it back up. I don’t know if he’s good, but I also can’t say for sure he’s bad. He makes plays, moves well, doesn’t seem to be overwhelmed by the moment. The Panthers easily could have won.
I had the Packers as one of my four teams in the Erickson bet, and I also used Jordan Love as one of my QBs in the NFFC postseason contest, so I was rooting for them. Thought I was good too at 21-3 and also when Matthew Golden made by far the biggest play of his career to put the Packers ahead 27-16 with 6:36 left.
In this coin flip version of the NFL, the kicker is more valuable than ever. Brandon McManus cost them seven points with three easy misses. Even if he misses one of three kicks, they’re tied.
When all of their receivers are healthy, the Packers have the deepest corps in the league with Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Golden, Romeo Doubs and eventually tight end Tucker Kraft. They can all play.
Love the post-game video of Ben Johnson saying “Fuck the Packers, I hate those guys!” Rivalries where the teams genuinely don’t like each other are self-evidently good for the game.
Caleb Williams made an unbelievable throw under pressure on 4th-and-8 to Rome Odunze to keep the game alive. A year ago, anyone would have taken Jayden Daniels in real life over Williams, and now it’s 180 degrees the opposite. Hard to doubt Williams after that game — if GMs were drafting the entire league from scratch he’d be a top-five pick for sure.
Think we have our TE3 for next year’s drafts locked in: Colston Loveland will go after Trey McBride and Brock Bowers.
As I said, I didn’t watch much of Bills-Jaguars (Sasha had a basketball game during it), but looking at the. box score, I feel like I can imagine how it went.
I would have been 1-4 ATS this weekend, wrong about everything except the Pats, but I didn’t place any bets.
I only saw part of Eagles-49ers. Read that George Kittle tore his EMF-weakened Achilles tendon. Feel badly for the 49ers training staffs the last decade, probably got the blame for what might be an environmental pollution issue. Obviously we can’t know whether that’s what’s caused the team’s myriad catastrophic injuries the last half decade, but put it this way, if I were a player I’d pick another team if I had the choice.
In postseason drafts, where you take a player and get his points for however many games he plays, the best values are often superstars who drop because they play for underdogs. But if the dog wins two games, that guy usually wins you the league. I’m talking about newly EMF-resistant Christian McCaffrey who had 29.4 PPR points and now gets at least a second game, albeit on the road against a nasty defense.
I’m glad to be rid of the Eagles and their unwatchable style of play. Jalen Hurts is a good caretaker, but he’s not who you want to have to lead the team from behind. Apparently he had all day to throw, though was the victim of some AJ Brown drops.
The Chargers should have just gone with Trey Lance and had him read option run every play. What’s the point of putting your star QB back there to get killed every down? None of the wide receivers could be relevant under those conditions, either.
Drake Maye was okay — he had one pick and an inexcusable fumble with the game largely salted away — he was lucky one of his teammates recovered. But the Chargers pass defense is also good.
I read the Chargers offense couldn’t figure out the Patriots coverages as they were so well disguised. Mike Vrabel played for Bill Belichick, and Belichick used to destroy young QBs, something to keep in mind if they draw CJ Stroud and/or Bo Nix.
I expect the Texans to cover tonight, but I’m rooting for Aaron Rodgers.
If I had to guess, the NFL tells the refs that if games go into overtime then they get a handsome bonus for their extra work. As you have said in the past, you get what you incentivize.