Wild Card Observations

Dull

My only dog in the fight is in the NFFC playoff contest wherein you a pick player on each team whose scores double, triple and quadruple each round his team advances. So it’s important to pick players initially you think will not only score a lot per game, but who will also advance to the Super Bowl.

The quarterbacks are key here because they score the most points, and usually you pick one in each conference so there’s a chance you can have two match up at 4x points in the Super Bowl. But I went with Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, figuring they could both be 3x in the AFC Championship, and I’d be guaranteed to get one of them at 4x in that case.

In the NFC, I used Jahmyr Gibbs and Saquon Barkley on the two favorites, both of whom routinely outscore their respective QBs. For God knows what reason I used the Denver kicker (instead of the Texans kicker) even though the Texans were only three-point dogs, while the Broncos were nine. I think I still have a personal bias against Houston after drafting C.J. Stroud and Stefon Diggs everywhere this year only to see the passing game implode. But what happens in the later rounds is far more important, even if I gave away two-rounds worth of kicker points by that misstep.

The team I faded was the Bills. I used their defense, but if they beat the Ravens next week I’m drawing deader than dead. I could have used the Chargers defense instead and put in James Cook over Ladd McConkey at the flex. McConkey went nuts, but Cook did well too, and remember he’s 2x next week.

• I saw only the end of the first half of Texans-Chargers. The Texans outscored them 10-0 in the second quarter and took control of the game. Stroud picked up a bad snap, rolled out and made a massive throw on one drive and also scrambled for 27 yards, looking *much* faster than I had remembered.

• The Texans defense has always been pretty good. They could slog it out in Arrowhead, but I expect the Chiefs with kill them with 1000 papercuts.

• McConkey is great, but the Chargers are short one serious playmaker. They need an elite TE, an elite pass-catching back or another WR at a minimum.

• I didn’t catch Ravens-Steelers, but I expected the game to go more or less like that. Russell Wilson shouldn’t be a starting quarterback anymore (obviously.)

• I watched most of Broncos-Bills. There was hope early, but the Bills, like the Chiefs, paper-cut you to death before the defense wears down, and then they get the big plays. It’s just very hard to stop a Josh Allen (or Mahomes) team from getting 10 yards in four downs.

• The Broncos should be a fun team going forward with Bo Nix and Sean Payton. They need to improve the running game and add a pass-catching TE though.

• The Packers hung around for a while, but they were already down Christian Watson then lost both Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed during the game. They didn’t have enough juice.

• The Eagles offense was sluggish. It wasn’t a problem against the depleted Packers, but the winner of the Rams-Vikings tonight should push them more.

• I watched the 40-minute version of Bucs-Killer Redskins. The Bucs were more efficient offensively and had an easier time converting first downs. But the KR’s converted some key fourth downs including a TD pass, and the Baker Mayfield botched handoff on the jet sweep was crushing. I love based Todd Bowles, but the KRs have more upside, in my opinion with Jayden Daniels.

• Terry McLaurin might be a Hall of Fame level receiver whose talent was hidden for years by bad QB play. Their other receiver was dynamic and brown too.

• The KRs couldn’t run the ball to save their lives. Brian Robinson has power, but he needs to get going, and he never had a chance.

• Bucky Irving seems to have taken the job entirely now, which means he probably will go in the second round of drafts next year. Good on Bowles for making the switch from the veteran Rachaad White to the clearly superior talent.

• The Lions will probably run over the KRs next week, but Daniels is dangerous.