I do this every year, and every year I get at least one correct. Last year, I got only two correct and including the surefire prediction that not all of them would be right, i.e., I really got one correct. But that just goes to show how bold they were. These aren’t layups, more like three pointers and half-court shots. I fared much better in past years, so hopefully these will get back on track.
(Actually, probably better to just link to all of them for full transparency: 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014.) I’m not going to argue it matters, or that anyone even clicks through on these, but I want to pat myself on the back for being so organized in archiving my old work.)
The Giants smash their win total (5.5) by more than two games.
Russell Wilson is below average at this stage, but likely no worse than Daniel Jones, and Jaxson Dart, who should take over in short order unless Wilson is good, looked great during the preseason. The defense is loaded with playmaking edge rushers and the offensive line played more cohesively this preseason. This is a team on the rise.
Patrick Mahomes throws 40-plus TD passes and for 4,800 yards.
Mahomes has been disappointing the last two years, but I expect a major bounceback with Xavier Worthy in Year 2, Rashee Rice likely to be healthy when he returns, the regression of their defense and the improvement of other AFC West offenses that force them to be more aggressive.
One of the following teams makes the playoffs this year: Titans, Giants, Patriots, Browns, Saints or Raiders.
This one is probably closer to 50/50 than a “bold” pick, but all of these teams are projected for win totals of 6.5 or less. (I left out the Jaguars because it would be cheating to have two of the four teams from the same division.)
Evan Engram (TE 9) scores more PPR points than George Kittle (TE3)
Kittle is a great real-life player, but he hasn’t eclipsed 100 targets since 2019. Engram could catch 100 passes in a thin Denver receiving corps with Sean Payton calling the shots.
RJ Harvey (RB21) will outproduce TreVeyon Henderson (RB14) in PPR.
They have similar skill sets, but Henderson’s competition (Rhamondre Stevenson) is more likely to sustain his role than Harvey’s (JK Dobbins). Dobbins has never stayed healthy, does little in the passing game and was not re-signed by the Chargers who drafted Omarion Hampton and brought in Najee Harris. Stevenson signed an extension before last year and is more locked into a role. Plus I’d rather bet on the Sean Payton offense than the Josh McDaniels one.
Breece Hall (RB17) will finish as a top-10 RB in PPR.
Coaches always talk about using everyone in the backfield during the preseason, but Hall is still only 24 years old and by far the best pass-catching back on a team that has Garrett Wilson and a bunch of scrubs at receiver. He has a good chance to be top-five in receptions among backs.
Garrett Wilson (WR14) will finish top-5 in targets, top-10 in PPR.
The Jets will be in the bottom third in passing attempts, but every team throws 450 passes at a minimum, and there just aren’t 300 targets to go around between the other scrubs.
Najee Harris (RB 45) will be a constant headache for Omarion Hampton (RB 13) owners, causing both backs to finish in the 20s.
Harris is the perfect unkillable veteran with whom you never want your early-round young back paired. Harris is a former 24th overall pick, is still only 27, has never missed a game and is 242 pounds, perfect for the goal line and power running game Jim Harbaugh prefers.
Jonnu Smith (TE 21) will put up another top-10 season in PPR.
Remember when the Falcons took Kyle Pitts at No. 4 overall, yet their head coach kept giving Smith targets at his expense? That coach is now the Steelers offensive coordinator, and Aaron Rodgers will need a dependable veteran receiver beyond DK Metcalf.
Some of these predictions will be wrong
No one’s perfect, but you never want to get shut out.
Real man goes 10 for 10 on bold predictions.
I definitely think Jonnu Smith is well-positioned, and I also think Roman Wilson is too. One or both of them should hit, and both seem way underpriced because most people dislike the 2025 Steelers for various reasons (Rodgers, Arthur Smith, slow pace).
I like your angle on Breece Hall and you might be right, but I think Braelon Allen is too unique of a player to not use considerably. I also think HC Aaron Glenn and his OC Tanner Engstrand (whom I wanted the Lions to promote to replace Ben Johnson) will want to employ dual backs just like they did in Detroit every year dating back to Swift/J. Williams, so I would have to say both RBs finish between the RB20 to RB30 range.
I hope you're right about Engram/Kittle as I am fading Kittle because I like a lot of players around that area.
I also hope you're right about the Giants because Tyrone Tracy Jr. is my most drafted player.
I like Treyveyon over Harvey and have been taking him a good amount but you make some really good points which gives me pause.
I don't really see anything here that makes me want to toss out some friendly wagers (dangit, haha).