Beat Chris Liss 2
Masterpiece
Beat Chris Liss 2 went down last night. I drew the seven pick. FWIW, I think this is my best draft this season to date.
Here’s the live stream of the first hour or so:
And here are the full results:
1.7 Jose Ramirez — It was the second time I landed on Ramirez. Based on ADP I thought I was getting Tarik Skubal, but he went at pick 5, and while Skubal is probably more valuable overall, getting the power/speed third baseman makes for a much easier build in the 12s. Getting your steals from 3B also makes that category a lot easier — you can always find them at OF and MI, but rarely at third.
2.6 Vladimir Guerrero — Same start as BCL1. The projections love Guerrero, but he’s a tough sell if you had Skubal in Round 1 due to lack of steals. But once I landed Ramirez, Guerrero was an easy call. I did consider Cal Raleigh, but because the catcher values are done separately and loaded back into the general rankings (something you have to do), I trusted his valuation less.
3.7 Mason Miller — It was the second time I landed Miller in three drafts, and I was happy to do it at this price. Elite closers are scarce and give you about 30 strikeouts over the garden-variety middle rounders.
4.6 Chris Sale — I needed an ace, and I was looking at Sale and Hunter Brown, but Brown went a few picks before, so it was an easy call. I was tempted to take Zach Neto who slipped, but I needed the ace more.
5.7 Brent Rooker — He was the highest player on the projections-heavy sheet, so I grabbed him. You really need to have a good power base in the 12s, and Rooker/Ramirez/Vlad is probably enough through five rounds.
6.6 William Contreras — He slipped somewhat, and I was happy to take him at a discount. Getting a catcher that has enough power, hits in a good spot in the lineup and doesn’t hurt your average gives you optionality to chase one-dimensional bats later in the draft.
7.7 Framber Valdez — The projections love him, and I needed a second starter. I was still light steals, but Valdez was far and away the top guy on the projections-heavy cheat sheet.
8.6 Riley Greene — I got sniped by one pick on Randy Arozarena who would have helped with steals, so I just stats-stacked with the top overall player on the board. Sometimes you go pure value over need. Now my power base was not just adequate but strong.
9.7 Michael Harris — Harris isn’t a player I typically draft, but he’s good for 20 bags and was the highest player on the board. Sometimes need and value line up.
10.6 Trevor Story — Another player I rarely draft, but again, need and value. Story is an injury risk, but he’s good for at least 20 steals if he stays healthy.
11.7 Michael Busch — This filled me up at corner (already had Vlad and Ramirez), but another value take and power add. My team was now loaded with power bats, but a little light on pitching and speed. And I still needed a second closer.
12.6 Griffin Jax — We don’t know for sure if he’ll get the saves, but he’s the best reliever on the team and has a good chance to do so. It’s always a relief when you lock down that second closer (no pun intended.)
13.7 Hunter Greene — It was time. A big risk when I had only two other starters, but if he’s okay (and he was able to pitch through the elbow injury last year), he’s a top-five-round value. Worth noting the 13th-round pick in my first draft was Pablo Lopez who is now out for the year with a torn UCL, so hopefully this draft doesn’t parallel that one beyond having the same first two picks (Ramirez/Vlad.)
14.6 Kenley Jansen — I was still low on starting pitching, but I couldn’t pass up the discount on a third closer. There’s a good chance you lose one of your closers during the year, so having three isn’t even that much of a luxury, and if all of them keep their jobs, there’s nothing wrong with running all of them out during weeks when your low-end starters have bad matchups.
15.7 Steven Kwan — A perfect fit on a team with tons of power that was still light on steals. The batting average buys you room to mess around with cheap, low-average power late too.
16.6 Luis Castillo — I love old warhorse pitchers, especially in pitcher’s parks. I needed the innings especially if Greene isn’t able to come back, another perfect fit.
17.7 Bryson Stott — My team was light in bags, and Stott will help. I’m still not flush in steals, but between Ramirez, Harris, Story, Kwan and Stott, I’m keeping pace now.
18.6 Carlos Rodon — Another injured pitcher with huge upside. Rodon is expected back in April, and if so, this could be a big windfall in Round 18. But having Greene and Rodon on the same team as starters 3 and 5 is obviously a risk.
19.7 Otto Lopez — Another middle who can steal 15 bags and even add a little pop. This is why getting the steals from Ramirez at 3B is so valuable — you can always find pockets of them at MI later in the draft.
20.6 Kodai Senga — Boring veteran in a good park that shouldn’t hurt my ratios.
21.7 Mickey Moniak — A sneaky source of average (can sit him in road series) with some pop and even a few steals. I like landing him as my fifth OF.
22.6 Cody Ponce — He thrived overseas enough to get a three-year, $30 million deal with the Jays. His velocity was up last year too.
23.7 Austin Wells — I needed a second catcher, and Wells brings some pop in a good hitter’s park. Having so much power allows me to maximize the value of Kwan too.
24.6 Joey Cantillo — He pitched well down the stretch last year and is a nice source of Ks if he sticks in the rotation.
25.7 Casey Mize — He’s mispriced. Mize had 14 wins last year, and while wins are noisy, he’s on a good team in a decent park, able to go deep enough into games to get them. He’s also young enough (for a pitcher) to get better.
26.6 Cade Cavalli — He was throwing 97 last year and is finally healthy after being derailed by injuries.
27.7 Cedric Mullins — He’s good for 20 bags if he stays healthy, without killing your power. And I have enough batting average to tolerate the hit he brings.
28.6 Jasson Dominguez — He might start the year in the minors, but Giancarlo Stanton is long shot to stay healthy. Dominguez is still only 23 and hit 10 homers with 23 steals in 381 at-bats last year. Real breakout potential at a low price.
29.7 Garrett Mitchell — Toolsy player who’s been derailed by injuries and healthy now. Another 20-20 type if he can stay healthy and put it together.
30.6 Josh Jung — He’s been productive on the rare occasion he’s been healthy. I wanted to back up a corner spot since my reserves were all pitchers and outfielders.
Roster By Position
C William Contreras/Austin Wells
1B Vladimir Guerrero
2B Bryson Stott
3B Jose Ramirez
SS Trevor Story
CI Michael Busch
MI Otto Lopez
OF Brent Rooker/Riley Greene/Michael Harris/Steven Kwan/Mickey Moniak
UT Cedric Mullins
SP Chris Sale/Framber Valdez/Hunter Greene/Luis Castillo/Carlos Rodon/Kodai Senga
RP Mason Miller/Griffin Jax/Kenley Jansen
B Cody Ponce/Joey Cantillo/Casey Mize/Cade Cavalli/Jasson Dominguez/Garrett Mitchell/Josh Jung