Beat Chris Liss 3

Zero RB Edition

I did the third and final NFFC Beat Chris Liss league last night, and it was one of the more interesting and aggressive drafts I’ve ever done. I picked from the seven slot.

Here are the results:

(Link to livestream)

1.7 Ja’Marr Chase — I made seven my first choice, but then realized I probably should have gone with four or five, or maybe nine or 10. That’s because if the first six picks went chalk (and they did), I’d be faced with Chase who is holding out for a new contract (and who I have in two other leagues already), Justin Jefferson (new, bad QB) or Garrett Wilson (new QB, never been a Round 1-level WR.) At 1.9 I’d have gotten one of those guys anyway, but earlier picks on the way back. And at 1.4, I’d have gotten a shot at Bijan Robinson for an easier hero-RB build. But I had pick seven, and I tripled-down on Chase because I think it’s very likely he’ll get his extension (or play if he doesn’t), and he’s an all-time talent with a top QB and projects for a massive target share. Plus, if he busts it’s Alan Seslowsky’s fault, and having someone to blame is paramount.

2.6 Drake London — I had it mapped out via ADP that I’d likely get De’Von Achane here, but he went at his min pick (I’m pretty sure) at the 1-2 turn, and so I was scrambling a bit. I really wanted Puka Nacua, who I missed by one pick, considered Cooper Kupp, but ended up going for the ADP-faller London who I had not remotely planned on getting. London obviously benefits from the massive QB upgrade in Atlanta, but it’s an open question whether he’s really an elite receiver or just a good one, and Kyle Pitts could easily emerge as Kurt Cousins favorite target instead.

3.6 DeVonta Smith — When Derrick Henry went one pick ahead of me, it was between Smith and Jaylen Waddle who I took in BCL2. Normally I avoid receivers this undersized but Smith has always produced at every level and is locked into his sizeable target share. Plus I read some Scott Barrett tweets about how Kellen Moore’s offense boosts the slot receiver a ton and that Smith thrives in the slot and could see more work there.

4.7 Stefon Diggs — This was ideal. I now have Diggs in all four of my leagues so far. Maybe he’s hit a cliff at age 30, but he’s getting $22.5M to play in arguably the league’s top passing game that lacks a true No. 1 alpha. I also considered Tee Higgins to pair with Chase (and serve as Chase insurance), but Diggs has more upside as a potential No. 1 target.

5.6 Dalton Kincaid — I’ve been high on him all summer, but he never quite fell to me in the right place until now. I expect him to be Josh Allen’s No. 1 receiver now that Diggs is gone.

6.7 James Conner — I needed a RB, and Conner is one. I’m a bit wary of a 29-YO guy with an extensive injury history, but he averaged 5.0 YPC last year and has never had a massive workload so he’s fresh for his age at least. Plus, the Cardinals offense should be good this year.

7.6 Anthony Richardson — I wasn’t planning on taking a QB here, or even Richardson who I have in BCL2 in Round 5!, but I couldn’t pull the trigger on Zamir White over someone with Richardson’s upside. I’m trying to win the overall contest, not simply cover the bases with starters at every position.

8.7 Jonathon Brooks — Jaylen Warren was still on the board, and he was a viable Week 1 starter for me, but Brooks who is on IR, struck me as the upside play. I heard somewhere, can’t remember where, that Brooks was an elite prospect in college before the injury, and there’s a lot of hype about Carolina’s new offensive brain trust boosting the offense generally. But it might have been a rash pick given my zero-RB build to take a rookie on IR.

9.6 Marquise Brown — I missed Warren by one pick on the way back, and instead of pivoting to Tyjae Spears I leaned into the zero-RB by taking Brown who was going in the fifth or sixth round before his injury. The beauty of this pick is I don’t need Brown right away as I wouldn’t start him anyway, so I pay no price for him missing Week 1. The ugly of this pick is I missed out on Spears, Zack Moss and Chuba Hubbard (who would have been nice to pair with Brooks.)

10.7 Joe Burrow — The obvious pick was Trey Benson to pair with Conner. In fact, I could have had Hubbard in Round 9 and Benson in 10 to lock up two backfields for my zero-RB team. But no, I had to take a second QB here because (a) Richardson has a low floor; (b) this was cheap for Burrow; and (c) I could potentially pair Burrow with Chase for the playoffs. If you’re gonna go zero RB, lean the into it. (The other problem with this pick is the weekly headache of picking my starting QB.)

11.6 Jaleel McLaughlin — The Burrow pick cost me not only Benson but JK Dobbins too, but I had my eye on McLaughlin who apparently was a god in college, and per Barrett is in an ideal spot as the RB2 in Sean Payton’s offense. Now that stat has to be tempered a bit given that peak Alvin Kamara was the source of so much of it, but how much of that was Payton’s offense? In any event, I’m seriously rolling into Week 1 with McLaughlin in my active lineup because of the Richardson, Brooks, Brown and Burrow picks.

12.7 Jordan Mason — Obviously he’s not usable unless and until Christian McCaffrey gets hurt, and the Niners badly need Trent Williams to report, but he’s a top-10 RB if McCaffrey, who played into February last year, goes down. This also furthers my extreme “what could go right” build.

13.6 Braelon Allen — Oddly I view this pick as a mistake as he was higher in ADP, so I thought I could wait another round on Giants backup Tyrone Tracy. (Tracy went three picks ahead of me in the next round.) Allen might be good, but only a Breece Hall injury could free him up whereas Tracy could just outplay Devin Singletary. Granted the Jets might be a better environment than the Giants, so Allen could have more upside if he did get a shot, but Tracy is also a converted WR and would likely catch a lot of passes if he got the job.

14.7 Khalil Herbert — Once Tracy was gone, I pivoted to Herbert. The Chicago backfield is crowded, but D’Andre Swift always gets hurt, and Roschon Johnson isn’t as good a runner as Herbert.

15.6 Jalen McMillan — I wanted to get Cam Akers because Joe Mixon is old, but I missed him by two picks and pivoted (finally) back to WR. McMillan’s created some buzz in camp, and both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are getting old.

16.7 Will Shipley — I love Saquon Barkley, but he’s getting old and has been hurt a lot. Kenneth Gainwell is ostensibly ahead of Shipley, but is just a guy. Another top-10 upside back should the starter go down.

17.6 Dalvin Cook — He’s on the practice squad for now, and he looked beyond done last year with the Jets, but keep in mind he only got 67 carries, and the Cowboys don’t have serious obstacles ahead of him should he regain even 60 percent of his prior form. Cook was still very good in 2022, and he should have fresh legs too.

18.7 Quentin Johnston — I needed one more receiver, and Johnston is one. Seriously, though he was a first-round pick only last year, and he’s competing with only Josh Palmer and a rookie.

19.6 Younghoe Koo — All these years I was with a wonderful kicker in Justin Tucker, but I’m trading him in for a Younghoe. (That joke will get old one day, just not in any of our lifetimes.)

20.7 Giants Defense — They draw Sam Darnold and Jayden Daniels the first two weeks, and added Brian Burns to Kayvon Thibodeaux and Dexter Lawrence.

Roster By Position

QB Anthony Richardson

RB James Conner/Jaleel McLaughlin

WR Ja’Marr Chase/Drake London/DeVonta Smith

TE Dalton Kincaid

FLEX Stefon Diggs

K Younghoe Koo

D Giants

Bench Jonathan Brooks/Marquise Brown/Joe Burrow/Jordan Mason/Braelon Allen/Khalil Herbert/Jalen McMillan/Will Shipley/Dalvin Cook/Quentin Johnston