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Beat Chris Liss 3
The third (and maybe final) NFFC Beat Chris Liss league took place last night. I had pick 9, and as luck would have it, was flanked by two readers of this newsletter — Matt Modica (Team 8) and Joe Nowak (Team 10), who probably knew who I was going to pick ahead of time.
Fortunately neither seemed willing to troll-pick for the sake of it (something I would absolutely do to others), until at least Round 19 when Joe took the Giants defense from me. (Maybe he really loves the Giants defense, though — who knows?)
In any event, here are the results:
1.9 Bijan Robinson — I was initially set to take Amon-Ra St. Brown, but then early Monday morning I started looking into it more and was getting a peak-Jarvis Landry vibe. Not that there was anything wrong with Landry — in Year 2, he went 166-110-1,157-4 with Ryan Tannehill.
But like Landry, St. Brown isn’t much of a deep threat (both are slow), and it’s hard to get all your TDs from inside the red-zone unless you’re as stout and physical as say Davante Adams, and even Adams got some deep ones last year. Alan Seslowsky keeps saying St. Brown was unlucky because he got tackled so much inside the five last year, but that happens when the QB throws you a five-yard pass from the 10, and there are five defenders between you and the goal line. When you’re Tyreek Hill catching balls over the defense, it’s actually bad luck if you were tackled inside the five, which I suspect doesn’t happen to him very often.
So St. Brown was out, and I wanted either A.J. Brown or CeeDee Lamb. But the more I looked at the board, the more I preferred WR in Rounds 2 and 3, and maybe even four, and I was set to take Darren Waller in five, so unless I wanted a zero-RB build, I’d probably need to take Robinson. So that’s what I did.
2.4 Garrett Wilson — Recent ADP had him not making it back to me, but I figured I could get Jaylen Waddle in that case, with which I was perfectly fine. But when Wilson was there I snapped-called it, and it affirmed my Robinson choice in Round 1, as I was pretty sure Saquon Barkley wouldn’t make it back, and there were no other backs I wanted there. (Nick Chubb is interesting, but there’s only partial upside without a Viagra-like uptick in passing-game usage.)
3.4 DK Metcalf — It’s a little scary having him in all three BCL leagues, as I’m not thrilled the Seahawks used a first-round pick on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but Metcalf is in his prime, and we now know Geno Smith is well above the floor for generating productive receivers. I really had wanted Calvin Ridley, but he went with the first pick in the third round and might go off the board in the second, come the Primetimes. (I got him in the late fourth in June!)
4.9 Chris Godwin — I despise the fourth-round ADP choices, so I reached into the fifth for Godwin who is another year removed from the ACL and has only an aging Mike Evans as competition for targets. I just need Baker Mayfield to play above that minimum viable threshold, something he did his first couple years in Cleveland.
5.4 Darren Waller — He’s my TE2, and I expect him to put up the same numbers as Metcalf or Tee Higgins, receivers who go in the early third and don’t qualify at TE.
6.9 Cam Akers — I was looking at James Cook, but Modica snaked me on him by one pick. Still, I might have taken Akers who is ostensibly a three-down back on an offense run by Sean McVay with a presumably healthy Matthew Stafford and likely healthy Cooper Kupp.
7.4 Alexander Mattison — I said I was out on Mattison (at ADP in Round 6), but this was a good price, and I wanted more RB depth as I didn’t love the receiving options here. I could also have gotten a second share of Miles Sanders, but he’s now nicked up, and I don’t trust him, either.
8.9 Jameson Williams — Modica sniped me again with Zay Flowers, but I did the exact right thing — I pivoted to a reachy target I absolutely wanted rather than trying to take value and hope he slipped back to me in Round 9. You don’t get everyone you want where you want them, but you had better get some of the players you want, even if you have to pay up a bit.
9.4 AJ Dillon — I really wanted to have shares of Daniel Jones, and Round 9 was the only way to guarantee it, but there are so many QBs I like in this range, and I had resolved not to force it. Dillon could easily take over for an older Aaron Jones this year, and I expect the Packers to run a lot. Plus Dillon is a capable-enough pass catcher.
On last week’s RotoWire podcast, Jeff Erickson told me Dillon sucked (compared him to Ron Dayne!), but I got the vibe that came from one of his nerdy guests who looked at some advanced stats that usually don’t mean shit. Maybe I’m wrong, and he has some other reason for thinking Dillon is bad, but either way, I wasn’t going to let that deter me. FWIW, Herb Ilk (Packers fan) bought Dillon in the Steak League Wednesday, and Greg Ambrosius (Packers fan) told me he likes Dillon. I trust the guys who watch every play *much* more than the stat nerds.
10.9 Daniel Jones — I can’t believe they let me have him in a BCL, but they did! I surely would’ve taken him to troll me, if I were they, even if my team had no need. Granted, this is still half a round ahead of ADP, but I was ecstatic. A healthy Jones is a top-10 QB with these weapons in this system, and there’s upside for top five.
11.4 Rondale Moore — This was an unexciting pick. I needed WR depth with Williams out six games, and I don’t trust Marquise Brown, so maybe Moore will break out in Year 3. I read somewhere he’s just a gadget guy with no upside, and almost was deterred, but again, that’s just some bullshit someone said. It might be true, and it might be false. Fuck around (in Round 11) and find out. (Actually you find out no matter what, but I like the saying and video.)
12.9 Anthony Richardson — There was a player I had to have, and I even commented in the live-stream I should have taken him over Moore, but he has a Round 15 ADP, so I got greedy here with another massive upside project in Richardson, betting my guy would be back. Once you get into double-digit rounds, though, don’t get too cute on waiting for ADP to pick players you like. There’s virtually no difference between Round 14 and Round 18.
13.4 Alec Pierce — This was the guy. He showed a spark as a rookie with bad QB play, is in Year 2 and having a strong preseason. Good chance he supplants Michael Pittman as the No. 1 in Indy this year.
14.9 Justin Tucker — Praise God, I got the GOAT!
15.4 Clyde Edwards-Helaire — He’s horrible, but no way he should fall this far. He could easily be the Chiefs main RB as Isiah Pacheco is just a guy, and Jerick McKinnon is a 31-YO who missed two full seasons with an injury a couple years back.
16.9 Irv Smith — I needed a backup TE, and I always seem to land on Smith who is the de facto No. 4 target in an elite passing offense. (After the draft Modica told me he was set to take him, but pivoted to a defense at the last second.)
17.4 Ravens Defense — I found out *after* drafting them they draw the Texans in Week 1, but I took them to stack with Tucker. People are obsessed with QB-WR-TE stacks, but they ignore the D-K stack which often go together. In a game where the defense is killing it, the offense often takes its foot off the gas late, and you have sack, turnover, three running plays and a field goal.
18.9 Jalen Tolbert — Another Year 2 WR, the 88th-overall pick from last year, is having a good camp and needs only to leapfrog Michael Gallup and an old Brandin Cooks. Plus Dalton Schultz is gone too.
19.4 Mecole Hardman — Ambrosius mocked this pick as my “first drop” but he’s only 25, and who do the Jets have outside of Wilson? The knock on Hardman is if he couldn’t break out with Mahomes, how’s he going to breakout with anyone, but on the plus side he’s more effective at penetration than Chubb.
20.9 Isaiah Likely — In the unlikely event Mark Andrews gets hurt, it’s likely Likely would have some value. (Real man wastes a pick to make a bad pun.)
Here’s the entire live-stream with Greg Ambrosius and Darik Buchar:
Roster By Position
QB Daniel Jones
RB Bijan Robinson/Cam Akers
WR Garrett Wilson/DK Metcalf/Chris Godwin
TE Darren Waller
FLEX Alexander Mattison
K Justin Tucker
B Jameson Williams/AJ Dillon/Rondale Moore/Anthony Richardson/Alec Pierce/Clyde Edwards-Helaire/Irv Smith/Jalen Tolbert/Mecole Hardman/Isaiah Likely