I went 2-3 last week, though one of my picks was the Ravens, and I didn’t expect them to lose both QBs. Another was the Cowboys which looked good until the fourth quarter collapse. But I also lost with the Chargers, and I’m now making a rule: Chargers are off limits until further notice. I imagine they will cover at some point, and when they do, it will not benefit me because I have accepted not using them in exchange for my own sanity and humanity.
Here’s my record YTD:
This week I feel okay about the picks, same idea as last week, pick contrarian, things that don’t add up, the overlooked, the not-quite priced in, the strange, the only tweak being stay away from the Chargers.
Falcons +3 vs Bengals (in Madrid)
The Falcons are a good buy-low off the disaster in Tampa, while the Bengals needed overtime against the Titans and don’t play much defense.
Saints -3 vs Browns
Even with Deshaun Watson, I kind of like the Saints here at home off the bye, but it’s especially good if Shedeur Sanders has to start.
Dolphins +7 vs Lions
The Dolphins show up every week and fight, while the Lions are on the road, laying seven, after a physical battle with a division rival.
Redskins +4 vs Rams
I saw somewhere Matthew Stafford might be playing through an arm injury, which explains why has hasn’t been as crisp this year. Either way, the Rams aren’t that impressive, and the Jayden Daniels Redskins are usually a live dog. I also don’t expect Myles Garrett to be 100 percent, assuming he returns this week.
Seahawks -8.5 vs Cardinals
It was a great Gardner Minshew comeback against the Cowboys, but this is a different defense and different environment. The Darnold to Lock downgrade, if you can call it that, doesn’t matter much to me.