Week 3 was bad — 1-3-1, and even though it’s early, this entry is on the ropes at 6-8-1 as it would take a 10-0 run to get back on track at 16-8-1. That’s 1 in 1024 assuming the picks were pure luck, and even with an edge it’s a tall order. Of course, you don’t have to get it back all at once, but whatever you don’t do now, you have to do later, and that means better than 66.7 percent after that. Of course, you shouldn’t get too fixated on the math — these things happen in streaks all the time — but bottom line there isn’t that much time to turn it around.
This week I didn’t have a great feel for the slate, but I let it sit for a while and made my picks an hour ahead of the deadline.
Colts - 3.5 vs Redskins (London Game)
I wanted to sell the Redskins high off the Seattle win, but the Colts aren’t very good, either. Just a vibe, 3.5 is kind of high for a neutral site game.
Texans -3 vs Cowboys
The Texans are a desperate animal at 0-3, and their defense should play better than it has, even against a strong offense. The Cowboys are also returning from a trip to Brazil, and the Texans get Nico Collins back, which is huge, given how toothless their other offensive skill players are.
Jaguars +2.5 at Bengals
The Jaguars seem like the better-rounded, better-coached team and are getting the equal-team treatment with the 2.5.
Panthers +3.5 vs Lions
The Lions can score, but their defense is poor, and this is an outdoor road game where they’re laying more than a field goal against a non-doormat. Seemed like a good spot to fade them.
Falcons +2.5 at Saints
The Saints are scrappy, but they just got beaten at home by the Raiders. The Falcons have the extra rest coming off the Thursday night game last week and a big advantage in the run game.