Circa Millions

Week 4

I went 2-3 last week to bring my record to 5-10. I don’t have to explain how dire that is for my prospects of cashing in the overall, though there are still nice quarterly prizes I can win even if I don’t make a miraculous turnaround.

Here are this week’s picks:

Colts +1.5 vs Steelers — This was just a pure contrarian hunch. Anthony Richardson has been terrible, and the Steelers defense has been nasty. But it’s the NFL, and sometimes when a line looks off, it’s a signal. I was actually buying groceries today, and it hit me to take the Colts. (Might turn out to be foolish.)

Bengals -4.5 at Panthers — Andy Dalton had a nice game against the Raiders, but the Panthers are still a doormat, and it’s still Dalton. If ever there were a get-well game for the 0-3 Bengals, this should be it.

Rams +3 at Bears — I don’t love that they were in such a roller-coaster comeback win last week, but Matthew Stafford is so much better than Caleb Williams at this stage of their respective careers, and Sean McVay is going to make the offense work.

Cardinals -3.5 vs Team — Jayden Daniels played great last week, and the Cardinals defense is nothing special, but I think their offense moves the ball at will, and I like the buy-low, sell-high here.

Chargers +7 vs Chiefs — Maybe this is dumb with all the Chargers injuries, but it felt like this assumed Justin Herbert would sit, and he’s only questionable. They’re missing Rashawn Slater and Joey Bosa too, but seven on the road is a massive line, and before last week this game would have been Chiefs -2.5 at best. If Herbert really is out (and they may sit him with Slater out), it’s probably a mistake though.