I went 4-1 last week, not the 5-0 I needed, but a good start nonetheless.
There are two components to picking NFL games, figuring out each team’s true baseline and having a feel for whether it will play above or below it in a given week. Because the public markets do a good job of measuring the former, most of the skill resides in the latter IMO. Is this team more likely to play its 10th, 30th, 50th, 70th or 90th percentile game against that opponent under these circumstances. No one knows, of course, but there are patterns to it, rhythms that don’t repeat exactly but which you can hear if you have a good ear, if you give it enough of your attention.
This Week’s Picks:
(Paywall to give something extra to paying subscribers, but not because you should EVER pay for picks. They are NOT worth it.)