Divisional Round Observations
That Bills-Chiefs game was intense, especially because I have a live NFFC playoff entry where Patrick Mahomes was one of my original QBs. Why on earth would the Chiefs give the ball to Mecole Hardman on the goal line! They almost pissed that game away.
The Bills are really a cursed franchise though. Shades of Scott Norwood on the Tyler Bass missed FG, though Patrick Mahomes would probably have driven them into FG range anyway for the win, so it’s not entirely on him.
And did the Bills really fake a punt on 4th-and-5 and hand it to Damar Hamlin! Were they trying for a feel-good story rather than just lining up and going for it with the ball in Josh Allen’s hands? So strange to see coaches at these stakes trying the feel-good thing with Hardman and Hamlin rather than just doing the obvious to win the game.
I’m good with it though, as my NFFC squad now has Lamar Jackson and Mahomes at 3x each, with one of them guaranteed to get to 4x for the Super Bowl and Christian McCaffrey and Amon-Ra St. Brown at 3x each with one of them guaranteed at 4x too. The only real error I made was using Rashee Rice over Travis Kelce, and that could still be okay if Rice outplays Kelce the next two rounds, but it seems obvious now Kelce is the favorite to outperform him.
I do have a dilemma in that I have to choose between Kelce and Pacheco next week, and to use Kelce, I have to start Gus Edwards/Justice Hill at RB and the 49ers defense. If I use Pacheco (who is more highly owned), I would use George Kittle/Aiyuk and the Ravens defense, which I prefer. It’s just that with Mahomes, it’s better to pair him with Kelce than Pacheco, and it’s much better for me if the Chiefs beat the Ravens since only seven percent would have Mahomes at 4x, whereas about 50 percent would have Jackson. If you are familiar with the contest and have thoughts, feel free to share them.
For now, I think I’m leaning Kelce and holding my nose to use Edwards/Hill because I prefer the Chiefs win anyway, and Ravens RB at 1x won’t matter as much in that case.
. . .
I wasted $200 hedging on the Texans ML and ATS to hedge against the possibility I had screwed up by using Lamar Jackson over C.J. Stroud at the last second. I should have just done the ML (perfect) hedge, but thought if the Ravens win a close one, I can pay myself back for losing the ML hedge with the ATS bet. Turns out I lost both, and that money could have been used for a second entry into the contest where I would have just used Stroud anyway! But it goes to show my instinct of going one low-owned home run (Mahomes) and one chalk (Lamar) instead of the massive swing for the fences (Mahomes-Stroud) was correct. Or I shouldn’t say my “instinct” which is always to swing for the fences, but my knowledge of when to rein it in.
I won a smaller bet on the Lions -6.5, but only because the Bucs failed on that final two-point conversion. I’ll take it though.
Baker Mayfield played well enough to guarantee him a good deal next year, and Mike Evans is still playing at a superstar level.
Jared Goff is now one game removed from his second Super Bowl appearance. I’d put that line at about 8.5 (I’ve yet to check it), but that’s still roughly 20 percent chance he gets back there.
The Jahmyr Gibbs-Sam LaPorta-Amon-Ra St. Brown trio is as bankable as any in the league.
One of the craziest things about the weekend was how close the Packers-Niners game was. Had the Packers won, the Lions-Bucs would have been dueling for home field in the NFC title game which through three quarters was tied 17-17.
I only watched highlights of Niners-Packers — for some reason I couldn’t find the 40-minute version Sunday morning. I saw the missed Anders Carlson FG, the throw-across-his-body game-ending INT by Jordan Love and Christian McCaffrey running over people for a couple TDs, but never got a sense of the overall flow. That the game was so tight though tells me either the Packers were a top team by season’s end, or the Niners are not peaking right now and more vulnerable even to the Lions than we would have thought. My sense is it’s a little of both.
Well, I'm glad my Leos covered for you, but the Bucs nearly did backdoor! We we're in control of the game as I predicted for the most part, but not nearly as "in control" as I would have liked. Even when it was 10-10 and 17-17, I still felt mostly confident as we looked the better team, and most importantly, the defense was getting pressure on Baker and it seemed like we were close to making a play to break the game wide open.
Oddly, the only time I was truly nervous was when we were up 14, but the Bucs quickly drove down the field to score a TD, and go for the failed 2 point attempt. That spot is something I've seen all too many times, particularily with this team, where a team up 6 with 4 or so minutes left turtles hard, and the other team gets the ball back and drives down to win the game. I felt better after the missed 2 pointer, but that was definitely my most nervous spot.
I went to the game again, and the crowd was definitely raucous, but just a tad less so. I'm not sure if this is because of the fact that the Rams game was at night with many emotional storylines tied in, or if it was because of where I was sitting, or a combination of both.
For the Rams game, I sat in the nosebleeds with the peons (of whom I am one) as I had to spend my hard earned money to procure those insanely priced tickets. For this one, my Dad failed to sell his season tickets seats so we got to sit in the fancy section where many of the fans were pretty damn lame. My Wife, Son and I actually felt bad at times standing up while while we were on defense, but for the critical moments politely told those in behind to "eff off" with our body language. At one point, my wife apologized to the fan sitting in front of us for my Son cheering so loudly in his ear (I didn't know she did this because i would have said fuck saying anything to his lame ass), and this guy actually said to her, "Thanks for saying something."
Who are these people? I've been waiting my whole life for this and this man is older than I am. I refuse to raise my son to grow up dead in the soul like these people.
At any rate the Bucs did seem to handle the crowd much better than the Rams did, but maybe they were more prepared, or maybe the crowd was just a tad more tame. I'm not sure.
As for the incoming Niners game, I do think we match up very well with them. For one, I think we can and should be able to run on them as the Packers did. The Niners aren't great against the run and we should be able to do so with our elite O-line. Second, as good as their run game is, I think we can stop it as we have the number one rated run D in the league. The pass D is another issue, but Deebo being banged up does help out somewhat on that front.
The Lions struggle with mobile QBs. Their losses have came to Geno, Lamar, Love, Fields, and Dak(asterix). While Purdy can move in the pocket well, he isn't someone who will kill you scrambling for a first down. If the lions can get pressure, they can win.
Lastly, I feel the Goff Home/Road and Indoor/Outdoor splits are a narrative that is exagerrated big time and regurgitated by the talking heads and twitter touts. There definitely is a disparity in the splits, but he isn't trash outdoors like everyone says. This season at home he has a 107.9 rating at home and a 89.4 rating on the road. Goff career in dome/outdoors QB rating is 99.3/89.5.
Hell, 89.5 rating is a career year for Daniel Jones! So basically road "JA"red "G"off is good Daniel Jones, to put it another way.
I give us about a 35%-40% chance to beat the Niners, maybe even a smidge higher. I feel like if we do get through and the Ravens win, we would have almost no chance against them, so I am happy that of the two one seeds, the Niners are on our side. The Ravens look almost invincible to me. They've murdered every team they've played in a game that was a big spot or statement-type game, and moreover, they're just an awful matchup for us. I would be ecstatic just to be there, though. I've been waiting my whole life to see my team in the Super Bowl. I was 9 when we got destroyed by the Redskins in the NFC championship, and at my young age with Barry and rookie Herman Moore and the team we had, I thought we were going to be in this position many times.
You can't take anything for granted.