It’s time to grade my preseason “bold” MLB predictions. They were, I’d say, better than usual. For point of reference, here are last year’s and the year before.
Alex Bregman is top-five in AL MVP voting
This just feels like a perfect fit. Bregman rakes at Fenway (1.240 career OPS), and he rarely strikes out. I could see a .300-plus batting average with 30 home runs. The Red Sox upgraded their pitching too, and after the Yankees lost Gerrit Cole and Juan Soto, have a good chance to win the AL East.
Verdict: False. He was raking early before he got hurt, but staying healthy is part of the deal. (0-1)
Bo Bichette outperforms Mookie Betts
Granted Betts is sick right now and lost a ton of weight, but he was still going in the second round of NFBC Mains, while Bichette was going in Rounds 8-9. Bichette was hurt last year, but prior to that he was a star, is in his age 27 season and has four home runs and a .373 average in Spring Training. I’m sick that I didn’t get any shares (took Bregman over him in the Main.)
Verdict: True. Betts edged him on HR and steals by a couple, the runs and RBI are close, but Bichette crushed him on batting average. (1-1)
Chris Sale finishes as a top-5 starter again
This might not sound that bold because he’s SP6 by ADP, but every pitcher except maybe Paul Skenes and Skubal are underdogs to be top-five, given the volatility of the position. I love veterans in their mid-30s finding it again, usually they have 2-3 years of good before age and injury catch up again. It reminds me of Justin Verlander who hit a rough patch before righting the ship for several elite years.
Verdict: False. Sale looked like he might be on his way, but a freak broken rib injury in June while diving for a ball cost me the verdict. (1-2)
Tyler Glasnow finishes as top-3 in NL CY Young votes
My comp for Glasnow is Randy Johnson, another tall lefty who battled injuries in his 20s before settling down to become one of the GOATS. Glasnow managed 135 IP last year and if he ups it to 165, he’ll be in the CY mix on the Dodgers.
Verdict: False. Of course he got hurt again, and he wasn’t even that good when he was healthy. (1-3)
Cody Bellinger hits 40 homers
A pull hitter with a high fly ball rate, Bellinger is perfect for Yankee Stadium. He’ll have to stay healthy, of course, but he’s still just 29 — won’t turn 30 until July — and is primed for the second best year of his career (he won’t top 2019.)
Verdict: False. Bellinger had a good year, but hit a modest 29. (1-4)
At least one of the following veteran pitchers has a top-five CY finish: Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Kevin Gausman, Walker Buehler, Sandy Alcantara or Carlos Rodon.
Pitchers who were once elite still own most of their skills, health permitting. While Scherzer and Verlander have lost velocity, knowing how to pitch is sufficient above a certain minimum threshold.
Verdict: True. I’m cheating a little here as the CY voting hasn’t happened yet, and Carlos Rodon (18 wins, 3.09 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 203 Ks) probably won’t crack the top-five (though if he doesn’t he’ll be close) but it’s not out of the question. He had a great year and crushed ADP. (2-4)
Jackson Chourio goes 30-30-.300
Chourio hit over .300 for the final four months of the season, once the Brewers stopped pulling him in and out of the lineup. The steals should be easy for him with a full season of at-bats, and the power should be there too in that park.
Verdict: False. Chourio got hurt and went 21-21-.270 in 136 games. (2-5)
Hunter Brown finishes top-five in AL CY voting
After a rough start, Brown was one of the best pitchers in the league last year with a 2.31 ERA over the last four months. He’s in a good park, in the right division (though the A’s home park got a lot worse) and on a good enough team for run support purposes.
Verdict: True. Brown had a 2.43 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with 203 Ks in 185.1 IP and will almost certainly finish top-five. (3-5)
Aroldis Chapman gets more saves than Jhoan Duran
Chapman is still throwing 99 and landed a job on the much-improved Red Sox, while Duran, who took nine losses last year, has Griffin Jax behind him. I know Chapman’s control has been bad the last few years, but I have a hunch the veteran warhorse has a comeback year.
Verdict: Barely False!. Chapman had a season for the ages, but in fact finished with exactly the same number of saves (32) as Duran. Bad luck, because this was a good call at ADP. Maybe I should have cheated on this one instead of Rodon. (And if I wanted to be REALLY bold, I should have said they’d finish with the same number of saves!)(3-6)
Some of these predictions will turn out to be wrong
As I always say, it keeps me from going 10 for 10, but also 0-for-10.
Verdict: True! (4-6)