Grading My Bold Predictions

Look Away

From last year, still applies:

I was putting off writing this article because I knew the result would be bad. Real man probably doesn’t write it at all, just skips town and never posts again. But being the nutless monkey I am, I will hold my nose and revisit the bold predictions from last August. And remember, the worse your record, the bolder they were. They were really bad last year too, I just discovered.

(Actually, probably better to just link to all of them for full transparency: 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014.) I’m not going to argue it matters, or that anyone even clicks through on these, but I want to pat myself on the back for being so organized in archiving my old work.)

1. The Giants smash their win total (5.5) by more than two games.

Russell Wilson is below average at this stage, but likely no worse than Daniel Jones, and Jaxson Dart, who should take over in short order unless Wilson is good, looked great during the preseason. The defense is loaded with playmaking edge rushers and the offensive line played more cohesively this preseason. This is a team on the rise.

Verdict: False. They looked okay after beating the Chargers and Eagles, but didn’t come close. (0-1)

2. Patrick Mahomes throws 40-plus TD passes and for 4,800 yards.

Mahomes has been disappointing the last two years, but I expect a major bounceback with Xavier Worthy in Year 2, Rashee Rice likely to be healthy when he returns, the regression of their defense and the improvement of other AFC West offenses that force them to be more aggressive.

Verdict: False. Again, looked okay early on, especially when Rashee Rice came back, but not even close. (0-2)

3. One of the following teams makes the playoffs this year: Titans, Giants, Patriots, Browns, Saints or Raiders.

This one is probably closer to 50/50 than a “bold” pick, but all of these teams are projected for win totals of 6.5 or less. (I left out the Jaguars because it would be cheating to have two of the four teams from the same division.)

Verdict: True. The Patriots bailed me out as the others were not even close. (1-2)

4. Evan Engram (TE 9) scores more PPR points than George Kittle (TE3)

Kittle is a great real-life player, but he hasn’t eclipsed 100 targets since 2019. Engram could catch 100 passes in a thin Denver receiving corps with Sean Payton calling the shots.

Verdict: LOL. Kittle missed almost half the year, and it didn’t matter. Why did the Broncos even sign Engram? (1-3)

5. RJ Harvey (RB21) will outproduce TreVeyon Henderson (RB14) in PPR.

They have similar skill sets, but Henderson’s competition (Rhamondre Stevenson) is more likely to sustain his role than Harvey’s (JK Dobbins). Dobbins has never stayed healthy, does little in the passing game and was not re-signed by the Chargers who drafted Omarion Hampton and brought in Najee Harris. Stevenson signed an extension before last year and is more locked into a role. Plus I’d rather bet on the Sean Payton offense than the Josh McDaniels one.

Verdict: True, but barely. Harvey was RB20 in PPR, while Henderson was RB21 by .4 points! (2-3).

6. Breece Hall (RB17) will finish as a top-10 RB in PPR.

Coaches always talk about using everyone in the backfield during the preseason, but Hall is still only 24 years old and by far the best pass-catching back on a team that has Garrett Wilson and a bunch of scrubs at receiver. He has a good chance to be top-five in receptions among backs.

Verdict: False. Hall stayed healthy, but finished as RB19 (2-4)

7. Garrett Wilson (WR14) will finish top-5 in targets, top-10 in PPR.

The Jets will be in the bottom third in passing attempts, but every team throws 450 passes at a minimum, and there just aren’t 300 targets to go around between the other scrubs.

Verdict: False. He was roughly on pace early on, but got hurt. (2-5)

8. Najee Harris (RB 45) will be a constant headache for Omarion Hampton (RB 13) owners, causing both backs to finish in the 20s.

Harris is the perfect unkillable veteran with whom you never want your early-round young back paired. Harris is a former 24th overall pick, is still only 27, has never missed a game and is 242 pounds, perfect for the goal line and power running game Jim Harbaugh prefers.

Verdict: False. Harris was out for the year in Week 3, though Hampton got hurt too. (2-6)

9. Jonnu Smith (TE 21) will put up another top-10 season in PPR.

Remember when the Falcons took Kyle Pitts at No. 4 overall, yet their head coach kept giving Smith targets at his expense? That coach is now the Steelers offensive coordinator, and Aaron Rodgers will need a dependable veteran receiver beyond DK Metcalf.

Verdict: LOL. Smith stayed healthy all year, but was barely used. (2-7)

10. Some of these predictions will be wrong

No one’s perfect, but you never want to get shut out.

Verdict: Nailed it. (3-7)