Guessing The Lines

I went 3-2 last week which was better than 0-5 the previous one, and I’ll leave it at that.

Here are my numbers for Week 18:

I usually do well in Week 18 in part because I largely bet on teams that are eliminated facing teams for whom the game is important. For some reason the market tends to group eliminated teams with teams that have locked up their playoff seeds (and have no incentive to win), and those two things are not remotely the same. The former are trying to put down good tape, go out on a winning note and have nothing to lose, while the latter are not playing/pulling their starters early.

The two biggest gaps here are with the Bills-Dolphins (why are the Bills favored by three in Miami?) and Cowboys-Team (Dak is worse on the road, and this is a massive line.)

The Rams-Niners was just a random guess because neither team has anything at stake. Same with Vikings-Lions as the Lions have something small at stake (should the Cowboys and Eagles both improbably lose), but Dan Campbell strikes me as the kind of guy who might play his starters anyway.

I like the Titans and Panthers who fit the description above.

Otherwise, my lines are pretty close. I actually am bearish relative to the market on the Giants, who fit the profile of a team I’d normally bet because the Eagles are a great buy-low with something to prove. Also, while the Eagles could win the division if Dallas loses, the Cowboys are 14-point favorites, so there’s really no pressure on Philly. They just need a get-well game ahead of the playoffs, and I think they *might* get it.