Week 17 ATS Picks

Keep in mind I’m no longer playing for anything — I’m drawing dead even if I go 10-0 over the last two weeks, i.e., I have no skin in the game other than being embarrassed for publishing the picks.

Last week I went 0-5, so I’m plainly out of step with the market. I see handicapping games more like surfing than number crunching. The league is like the water moving underneath you, and you have to find your balance in order to ride it without wiping out. Surfers aren’t doing math — they’re operating on feel, on instinct, based on their observations and experience.

With that in mind, here are my picks (same in all three entries) for Week 17:

The Cowboys are at home where they play much better, and Jared Goff is on the road where he plays much worse. The Cowboys defense is good, so I think we might see bad Goff, and if that happens, the Cowboys should pull away. (I also have Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb going in the Primetime, so I hope Goff plays well enough to keep them producing into the fourth quarter.)

The Dolphins defense has been better of late, but I’m dubious of Miami on the road in cold, outdoor conditions. Warm weather finesse team.

The Giants are bad, but Tyrod Taylor is competent, and this just feels like a sell-high spot for the Rams. I have Saquon Barkley going in that Primetime, and apparently the Rams are No. 1 against running backs for fantasy scoring, so maybe this is wishful thinking.

The Colts got crushed in Atlanta last week, but this feels like a good bounceback spot for them. The Raiders are also a sell-high.

Finally the Texans seem like a bit of a sucker (obvious) play, but CJ Stroud is back, and that’s a huge difference maker.