Guessing The Lines
It was a tough week for me. Not only did I go 0-5 ATS, but I found out from the dog sitter Oscar is a (failed) gay rapist. He was trying to get with some other male dog apparently, but the dog shook him off (Oscar is only nine pounds.) The sitter suggested we consider fixing him, which we might, but think we want to breed him first because he’s incredibly handsome and should pass on his genes. (He’s also a very loyal guy and great friend, his indiscretion over the holidays notwithstanding.)
I really thought we had raised him better than that though, and my shortcomings as a handicapper and dog owner have shaken me to my core.
In any event, here are my numbers for Week 17:
I initially thought I was way out of step with the lines, as my first three guesses were pretty far off, but after that I was mostly close.
One that jumps out is the Jaguars who are only laying 6.5 at home. Maybe this is pricing in a Trevor Lawrence absence, but if he plays, I have a Jaguars blowout feeling.
I like the Ravens only laying 3.5 at home against the soft-ish Dolphins, but the spot — Baltimore looking like the league’s best team after beating up the Niners on the road — isn’t ideal.
The Lions-Cowboys line looks excessive to me, but the Cowboys are in a bounce-back spot at home after two losses, and Jared Goff (and Dallas) have pronounced home/road splits.
I also kind of have a Giants lean. The Rams are getting a lot of hype, and Tyrod Taylor is a real NFL QB unlike Tommy DeVito.
I might lay the wood with the Niners too — they’ll want to flex their muscles a bit after that ugly loss.