NFL Thoughts And Observations

Plus more housekeeping

I don’t think I’m going to do *any* rankings this year. Rankings are dumb, keep you boxed in. You should look at ADP to know what players cost, and then go with your gut from there. Rankings don’t add anything except a fixation of belief, a snapshot in time that’s ever obsolete. Web sites post rankings to meet the demand of people who want them, but they serve no purpose except convenience and false certainty. I just arrange my draft lists by recent ADP, sort by position and make my own calls. You should do the same. Trust yourself.

• I’m really regretting not taking Justin Fields or Caleb Williams at 10.2 in BCL1. Would have been the perfect draft. My coping strategy is to imagine Bo Nix turns into mobile Drew Brees, and I’d never sit him anyway, or Jayden Reed goes nuts, and the real stack is with Jordan Love. But with Odunze and DJ Moore, hard to see how I have a good year unless Williams is good, and Garrett Wilson/Breece Hall don’t even need to go crazy to bolster Fields who gets so much of his value from running. And I like Trey Benson at 10.2 because that’s cheap for the clear, athletic backup of an old, injury-prone back. But I just spaced out and failed to consider QBs after taking Nix.

• I want more NFL news now that I’ve drafted a team, but I won’t go search for it. If it’s not on RotoWire, I don’t want to reach for it via podcasts and speculation. That stuff is poison. I liked Saquon Barkley last year, but got talked out of it by some “sharp” podcasters. Hard news is the only thing I want to see, not spin.

• I’m warming up to Justin Jefferson as a Rd 1 target. The system in Minnesota is so good, and the indoor venue too, and Jefferson is one of the greatest receivers of all time. Maybe pick 5 is the sweet spot where worst case you get Jefferson, Lamb or Gibbs.

• I really like the entire first round more than in years past. There’s no one I would avoid except maybe Christian McCaffrey, and even then I see a case for him at 1.11 or 1.12. I’m a little lukewarm on Saquon this year off the workload. Could see myself taking Ashton Jeanty ahead of him. But I won’t commit to that.

• I used to think injuries were random, and they can be. But I’ve come around to believing in mindset largely determining health. Some people revel in playing ball in front of millions on TV every week. They love it, they want the challenge, they know it gives them purpose and joy. Other players are more anxious by nature, more ambivalent about the stresses and pressure of the job. They have to psych themselves up more to overcome it. What a relief then (subconsciously) to have a break from it due to an unfortunate (and surely “random”) injury. If a guy gets hurt too much, it might be physical, but it also might be mental. Injuries are an out.

• As much as I regret missing out on Williams and Fields, I think Nix has a chance to be a top-five QB with Sean Payton. The question is will a receiver have a commensurately big season? Courtland Sutton should be good for 1,200-ish yards, Evan Engram maybe another 1,000, but for Nix to be Brees 2.0, someone else will have to go off. Maybe Marvin Mims, maybe one of the other scrubs on the roster, maybe RJ Harvey pulls a Kamara and has 800-plus receiving yards. It doesn’t add up just yet. Then again, there are always nobodies who become somebodies, and it’s not usually obvious in advance.