I’ve done three drafts so far, and sometimes when it’s my pick there are certain players around ADP I’m not even considering, even if they slip a few slots. That doesn’t mean these are bad picks — some of my fades have turned in monster years, probably too many. But I can only call it as I see it, and I’ll list a few of them below based on the NFFC ADP chart for the RotoWire Online Championships over the last few days.
Round 1: None
I would take any of these guys at their rough ADPs. My least favorites are Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey, due to age, wear and injury risk, but their ceilings are both obviously 1.1 as both have been the 1.1 recently. I might have said Justin Jefferson with his hamstring injury, but he has since returned to practice.
Round 2: Derrick Henry, De’Von Achane, Trey McBride
Henry is a rock, but everyone gets old eventually, even if he didn’t show *any* signs of it last year. Plus you know there’s no pass-catching upside.
Achane I drafted in the Stacker_Sports league, but only because he fell to Round 3 (and it was before he got hurt). The calf injury is a bad sign for someone who is undersized and not that durable.
McBride just seems pricey for a guy with six career TDs, modest per-target efficiency and an erratic QB. Brock Bowers in Round 2, no problem, but McBride should be Round 3 or 4.
Round 3: Marvin Harrison, James Cook
Normally I love second-year receivers, but I had Harrison last year, and he and Kyler Murray never seemed to be on the same page. When Murray did look his way, he was rarely open, usually outleaping defenders on jump balls to make a play. Harrison just doesn’t seem that good to me, and Murray is far from an ideal supporting QB, especially with McBride around.
Cook was a TD machine last year, but I expect that to regress massively, and Josh Allen doesn’t check it down that much, limiting Cook’s catch upside.
Round 4: George Kittle, Mike Evans, Joe Burrow
Kittle is a great real-life player, but even with a depleted SF receiving corps, he’s never been a massive target guy. Maybe his blocking is just too valuable. He also gets hurt a lot.
Evans has been automatic, but every year it gets more likely he’ll miss. Age catches up to everyone.
Burrow is great, but if I’m going to take a QB this early, I’d prefer him to be mobile or at least a rock durability-wise. Think Drew Brees, not Andrew Luck.
Round 5: DK Metcalf, Jameson Williams, Alvin Kamara
Metcalf is a physical phenom, but he’s not that good at football. Adjusting to a new, run-heavy team with a very particular quarterback might not go so smoothly.
Williams seems mispriced. I’d way rather have Jordan Addison, for example, and he’s suspended and goes two rounds later. Williams is fast and can make plays, but ARSB is a target hog, and Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs also need to be fed. Making matters worse, rookie Isaac TeSlaa might force his way into some targets.
Kamara is just old and on a terrible team. I don’t like drafting players just for volume without some baseline quality guarantee.
Round 6: None
I could almost just take one of these guys at random, and I’d be fine with it at cost.
Round 7: Aaron Jones, Travis Kelce, Matthew Golden
Jones is old, has had his share of injuries and the Vikings brought in a bruiser in Jordan Mason who could see some of the valuable goal-line work.
Kelce is in decline, and the Chiefs finally have some other weapons, so Patrick Mahomes doesn’t have to force feed him. (I actually took Kelce in one draft, but only as part of a massive Chiefs stack.)
Golden seems like a good prospect, but the Packers spread the ball around so much, it’s hard to see any one of them having a great year. Plus, Jayden Reed is really good, so I’d rather take him in Round 8.
Round 8: JK Dobbins, Khalil Shakir
Dobbins doesn’t catch a lot of passes, has lost some of his explosiveness and always gets hurt.
Shakir is a good player, but Josh Allen spreads it around so much, it’s hard to see much upside. Similar situation as Golden, but far slower and less athletic.
Round 9 Brian Robinson, Joe Mixon, Dak Prescott
Robinson might be traded which probably won’t improve his value and could hurt it. He’s an early-down plodder without much explosiveness or pass-catching.
Mixon has a serious foot injury, and he’s got a fair amount of mileage on him, even if he’s able to get back to 100 percent.
Prescott is fine, but there is so much QB depth in 2025, there’s no need to take a mid-level one in the single-digit rounds, unless you’re pairing him with CeeDee Lamb for the NFFC playoffs.
Round 10: Keenan Allen, Cam Skattebo
Allen is just too long in the tooth and on the decline, get someone younger with upside.
I actually drafted Skattebo before realizing the extent of his hamstring injury. It’s not good for a rookie to get zero reps in the preseason. He could easily open No. 3 on the depth chart, and then he’s just taking up space until someone gets hurt. I’d cross him off this fade list if he returns in the next week or so.