Week 1 Observations

Low-Key Horrifying

I was in a decent frame when I sat down to watch the games yesterday. Triple-checked my lineups, lit up a cigar, LFG, Week 1!

Then it slowly dawned on me my five Circa Millions picks weren’t looking great. The Dolphins were DOA — serves me right for taking tips — and the Falcons were in it, but shaky. The Giants couldn’t pass protect or run block to save their lives, more on that below, the Bengals were life and death with the Browns and the Patriots were getting owned by Geno Smith and the Raiders. I admit I had zero feel for the slate before the Week — what basis was there to pick one side over another after all the offseason changes and an eight-month layoff? — but that should put you at 2-3, 3-2 if you’re lucky. It’s *hard* to go 0-5!

Okay, well I can compartmentalize that because even if it’s too big a hole out of which to dig, I can still win some quarterly prizes which was the more likely scenario anyway, and I’m alive and well in Survivor, having picked the Eagles. But compare where I was before Sunday — through to Week 2 with everyone at risk — and now every single large favorite, Bengals, Cardinals, Redskins and Broncos, made it. So Sunday was bad for me in Survivor too.

What about my fantasy teams? Probably 3-2 in NFFC, including a likely but not certain win in the Primetime. Lost in the Steak League, but got enough points for the side bet, won in my Stacker_Sports league. But Drake London who I have in the two losing leagues got hurt, and that would obviously be a blow. Not terrible on the fantasy front, but not great, either.

On balance, it was as low-key horrifying week, bad in Survivor, catastrophic in Circa Millions and merely decent in fantasy.

• The Sunday night game was strange. The Bills scored a TD, made the PAT, but then decided to take it off the board to try for two after a penalty and snapped it to Josh Allen in the shotgun! If you’re going to snap the ball that far back and run a passing play, what difference does it make if you start at the one or the two? They missed the two-point try of course and were forced to chase it the rest of the game.

• Derrick Henry’s fumble was bad, but the Ravens were still up 40-38 with the ball and just needed a first down to run out the clock which they probably would have gotten on 4th-and-2 had they gone for it. Instead they punted it back to Josh Allen with 1:26 left knowing a field goal beats them. And even had they failed on 4th-and-2, they were probably out of Matt Prater’s range, so it wasn’t an automatic loss. You’d think the Ravens would be the ultimate close-it-out team, but they’re not.

• Besides the fumble Henry looked great, same guy as he was last year, same guy as he was five years ago. I didn’t draft him, but you’d be crazy not to see the case for it.

• Lamar Jackson attempted only 19 passes, which explains why no one besides Zay Flowers did anything in the passing game. There were only 10 more targets to go around between Mark Andrews, DeAndre Hopkins (who made the most of his two with a great one-handed TD grab), Rashod Bateman and the backs. It was a Henry gameflow game, though Jackson got his on the ground too.

• Josh Allen is such a beast in these kinds of games where he has to take over. You felt like a million bucks getting Xavier Worthy in Round 3 and waiting on Bo Nix (in the Sean Payton offense!) during your draft, but Week 1 was the FO part of the equation.

• James Cook is still the clear lead back, and he’ll make up for the likely regression in rushing TDs if he goes 5-for-58 each week, but this was an unusually pass-heavy game script.

• Keon Coleman was the Bills receiver to draft, but this was as good as it gets game-script-wise, and Allen spread the ball around with Dalton Kincaid even getting in on it. I’d be surprised if a top-15 WR season comes out of this group.

• The Giants offensive line has been so bad for so long. I thought they might have solved it this preseason, but they have not.

• Russell Wilson actually played well, believe it or not, under the circumstances. He scrambled well, got rid of the ball (only two sacks, no fumbles or picks) and threw jump balls to Malik Nabers when he could. It was like the ‘85 Bears and Steel Curtain formed a combined All-Star team and suited up for the Redskins. You know the line was bad when Daniel Jones goes bananas behind a decent one in Indy.

• Tyrone Tracy had nowhere to run. Cam Skattebo showed some power on one of his catches, running a guy over, but he had nowhere to go, either. The line was not a top-31 unit Sunday.

• Nabers is so good, he’ll catch anything thrown in his vicinity and makes it look easy. But he was visibly frustrated by how bad the offense was.

• The only Redskins back with any juice was Jacory Croskey-Merritt. Austin Ekeler was fine, but I’d expect JCM to get more work going forward.

• Deebo Samuel looked healthy and made some good catches in traffic.

• The Giants defense was okay. They got to Daniels three times, didn’t get blown up in the passing game.

• I was excited to watch the Raiders-Pats because I had Drake Maye and Ashton Jeanty going, but it was a dud.

• TreVeyon Henderson did little, but even so was more effective than Rhamondre Stevenson. Seems like Stevenson will still get a lot of the early down work though.

• Maye was okay, not great, not terrible. He spread the ball around a fair amount too — despite 46 attempts, no receiver saw more than eight targets.

• Geno Smith was sharp and peppered Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers with 18 of his 34 attempts. Dont’e Thornton made a 36-yard catch at a key juncture in the game, but saw only four targets.

• Jeanty showed some toughness on his TD, but was largely bottled up. He saw only two targets.

• I love that Aaron Rodgers threw four TDs to beat the Jets. QB2 still has it.

• Jonnu Smith saw six targets and scored a TD, but they were almost like running plays. Still my bold prediction he’s a top-10 PPR TE stands.

• Garrett Wilson should go nuts this year. Top-five WR if healthy. He’s the only game in town. Breece Hall looked great carrying the ball against a good defense. He also saw four targets. Only negative was Braelon Allen (six carries for nine yards) getting the goal-line TD.

• Trevor Lawrence didn’t look good, and Brian Thomas needed a rushing TD to salvage his day. Then again, the Jaguars were ahead the whole game, and Travis Etienne ran wild. I started to warm to Etienne later in draft season, but never pulled the trigger.

• The Panthers were even worse, it was like 2024 never happened. Tet McMillan went 9-5-68-0 which bodes well if they ever move the ball.

• I didn’t watch much of AZ-NO, but like seeing Trey Benson get 69 efficient yards while old man James Conner struggled. Marvin Harrison (six targets) and Trey McBride’s (nine targets, no TDs) were in line with past performance.

• The Saints seem like a wasteland. Chris Olave got 13 targets (for 54 yards!) at least.

• In a game the Colts scored 33 and led the whole way, Jonathan Taylor had an almost shockingly modest line — 98 YFS on 21 touches, three catches, no TDs. But a rising tide lifts all boats, so if Danny Dimes is passable, better things are almost certainly in store.

• Tyler Warren and Michael Pittman were the beneficiaries of peak Dimes, not Josh Downs.

• Speaking of Dimes, what a monster game when you count the two TD runs. The Gettlechad will be vindicated at long last!

• Usually when people say things in the preseason like “the Dolphins are unraveling” it’s bullshit, but apparently not this time. De’Von Achane salvaged his day in garbage time, but you have to wonder if they’re not the AFC Saints. Achane is Kamara, Hill is Olave, Waddle is Shaheed.

• How did Joe Burrow have only 113 yards and Ja’Marr Chase 26? There were people who stacked Chase/Higgins/Burrow with their first three picks! Even Chase Brown did nothing except score a TD. Is the Browns defense good?

• Dylan Sampson had bad efficiency numbers, but he passed the eye test in highlights I saw, probably on a couple of his eight receptions. Quinshon Judkins is joining soon, but probably just takes Jerome Ford’s role. Harold Fannin went 9-7-63-0, while David Njoku went 6-3-37-0, FWIW.

• The Falcons got burned by a Younghoe again, but to be fair, it was only because the Bucs old ho, Chase McLaughlin, missed a PAT to keep them within three. Truth be told, Younghoe is now 31, two years older than old ho. The point is kickers change teams a lot and are basically hoes.

• Michael Penix got a surprising amount of extension and penetration on the Falcons penultimate drive. The Falcons had no run game, so they got most of their yards through the air. Kyle Pitts showed a little bit after Drake London got hurt. London (15 targets, 55 yards, shoulder injury) had a rough game.

• Baker Mayfield had a modest game, but engineered the drive that counted. I started Emeka Egbuka over Zay Flowers at the last second in my Dynasty league and thought I was a genius when Egbuka caught that second TD. What I should have done was start Flowers over Worthy, who didn’t even have the decency to wait until the second quarter to get injured. This ain’t the NFFC “free-look” bullshit. Worthy locked that zero up for me.

• I badly wanted the highest-owned Broncos to lose in Survivor, and there was hope when the Marvin Mims muffed a punt inside his own 30, with the Titans down only one in the fourth quarter. But two sacks later, the Titans were out of field goal range, and that was that. The Titans had one last chance to get the ball back after a stop, but the refs called a ticky tack late hit penalty to gift the Broncos a first down. Very low chance the Titans would have driven down the field with no timeouts, down eight, made the two-point conversion AND won in OT, but we were talking 7700 Circa entries that would have gone down, so I was pissed.

• The Broncos defense looked great, but the passing offense was sloppy.

• RJ Harvey showed what he could do on a 50-yard run — I expect him to get more involved, but JK Dobbins was the main guy and even had more burst than I remember last year when I had shares of him.

• Cam Ward passed the eye test for me, but that was a tough assignment on the road in altitude against that defense for a first game.

• Calvin Ridley had a bad drop, but he was the only guy Ward had any connection with at all.

• I’m annoyed with myself for taking “sharp” tips in Circa Millions, but truth be told, I was probably taking the Lions with one of the last two picks anyway. The Packers completely stuffed the run and cut off their big plays.

• The Packers once again spread the ball around and didn’t need to pass much. Jayden Reed led the team with five targets.

• The Texans still can’t pass protect, and they got nothing down the field. Nico Collins had 25 yards. Nick Chubb looked okay as the feature back, though.

• Puka Nacua got his head split open, but a real man comes back in the game and goes 11-10-130 anyway. Davante Adams saw eight targets, and no one else saw more than two. This is what you like to see in fantasy.

• Christian McCalfinjury had 22 carries, 10 targets and nine catches. I don’t know how long he’ll hold up, but he was apparently okay for Week 1. George Brittle left with a hamstring injury, is getting an MRI and I’d take the over on October 1 before we see him again. I guess Calf Injury and Bulletproof Ricky Pearsall (BPRP) should see a lot of targets. Bullproof Brian Robinson (BPBR) got nine carries and two targets.

• I don’t know why I let the “sharps” talk me into Kenny Walker. Zach Charbonnet saw two more carries, got 27 more yards and scored the TD. Walker had three catches for four yards at least and is not to my knowledge injured yet.

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba went 13-9-124-0, while everyone else combined went 9-7-26-0. Makes Garrett Wilson look like he’s part of a committee.

• Tied 10-10 with 3:28 left in the game, the Seahawks settled for a 37-yard FG on 4th-and-1, Of course the Niners drove down the field and scored a game-winning TD which was basically a replay of Joe Montana to Dwight Clark only with Brock Purdy and someone named Jake Tonges. Slightly lower stakes, but an insane throw and catch.