Week 3 Observations

Annoyed

I’ll start with what’s on my mind and then get to the important stuff. I just watched the 40-minute version of Falcons-Chiefs, and it was infuriating because I had Atlanta +3.5 in the Circa Millions. I was 2-1 on the day (won with Indy and Baltimore, lost with Houston) and badly needed Atlanta to cover. They drove the ball to the six on the penultimate drive, went four and out (could have kicked the covering FG with 7:13 and three timeouts remaining, but okay, that’s a 50/50 call at best) and on the final drive failed to convert from the Chiefs 13 on 4th-and-inches.

But it’s not so much that they failed but how they failed. On the first drive, it was 4th-and-five, and Kirk Cousins threw a ball that had zero chance of being completed. Maybe he was under pressure (didn’t see the replay), but on fourth down you just chuck it up for grabs, as there’s no downside to a turnover. But what was far, far worse was the play call during the final drive on 4th-and-inches. They ran Bijan Robinson (who had no room to run all game, but also looked ordinary af) horizontally, the Chiefs got penetration (as they had all game) and he got stuffed. Why are you running a sweep when you need inches? Sneak it with the QB, and if he’s too old and brittle, direct snap it to a back or just hand it off and have him run straight up the middle. Why the fuck would you run sideways? You’re not trying to get eight yards, only a few inches!

Maybe they would have gotten the first down and still not scored the TD (which they had to have at that point) anyway. Who knows? But the play calling and play design for the Falcons is bad, including so many screens to freaking Darnell Mooney. How many times can you go to that play? He’s not Tyreek Hill!

The Chiefs are also extremely annoying to watch, maybe the ugliest good offense in the league. While other teams hate the dink and dunk and getting seven first downs to score, they don’t mind it one bit. Just a shit way to wake up in the morning, to watch that game. Maybe worse than last week even though that one was tough to top.

Okay, onto the important stuff. Survivor is just bananas this year. Here’s the Circa board for Week 3:

It had already been massive carnage leading into this week with the biggest favorites on the board in both Weeks 1 and 2 (Bengals and Ravens, respectively) losing outright, and now the Browns (931), Bucs (667), Raiders (515), 49ers (69) and Titans (54) got bounced. That’s 2,236 more deaths, leaving 1,638 (out of 14K originally!) in Week 3.

But the craziest thing is Week 3 is not even over. The Bengals (988) and the Bills (71) still have yet to play! I happen to think the Bengals will crush (Cincy -7.5 is my final Circa Millions pick), but if they go down, there would be only 550 left heading into Week 4. I’d be shocked if the biggest favorite has ever lost three weeks in a row, let alone during the very first three of the year, but now I’m almost rooting for the Football Team despite my Circa pick for the sheer sickness of it. It’s been such an insane year my 24-person “home” pool ended after Week 2.

It also makes me feel better about getting bounced in Week 1 because had the Bengals won I almost certainly would have lost this week with them unavailable to me, and that’s assuming I didn’t take the Ravens last week. Essentially, you were drawing dead with the Bengals even if the Mike Gesicki TD counts and they win that game.

By the way, much respect to the three “No Pick” entries at the bottom. Takes a real man to pony up $1000, dodge the minefield of the first two weeks and not even submit a pick!

• I faded Travis Kelce, but even I didn’t think it would be this bad. But it’s actually okay if you drafted him because TE is like defensive lineman IDP now. You’re happy if you get a sack or two, but not really counting on much.

• Carson Steele did fine running straight ahead and breaking tackles, but there’s not much upside there.

• Rashee Rice is the whole offense right now and looks like a real alpha that catches everything and maxes out yards after the catch. Since I have none of him, it would be tremendous if the NFL randomly meted out an extended suspension in two weeks.

• Xavier Worthy will get loose unpredictably but he’s a tough start.

• Bijan Robinson is a smooth, gliding runner, but I’ve never been blown away by him. I’m sure he’ll prove me wrong one of these weeks.

• Kirk Cousins is a good quarterback when he has time, but has no Plan B if pressured. The Falcons couldn’t get much going after the first drive.

• The Giants defense played great, dropping Deshaun Watson eight times. Will probably need some deep tissue work after that.

• Danny Dimes was bad in the second half. He didn’t turn it over, but there was no rhythm at all to the offense. Thank God for Malik Nabers who’s the WR1 in fantasy through three weeks. His first TD catch was incredible too. Marvin Harrison looks good, but if we re-run the NFL draft and fantasy drafts, Nabers is going ahead of him in both.

• Brian Daboll likes Devin Singletary, but Tyrone Tracy (a converted WR) has a spark, is worth a stash.

• The Browns offense might be the only one uglier than the Giants.

• Malik Willis is 2-0, Jordan Love 0-1. What a best-case scenario for the Packers who were 0-1 and without their star QB for at least a couple weeks to be in this situation now.

• Emanuel Wilson looks like a player, and he’s the clear No. 2 behind Josh Jacobs.

• DeAndre Hopkins is better than Calvin Ridley, and unlike Ridley he’s an alpha that requires the ball.

• I drafted Anthony Richardson in two leagues, and he’s been brutal. Just no confidence or feel, overthinking everything. It reminds me of how they destroyed Justin Fields in Chicago — just let the guy play wild and use his skills. He can develop the other skill set slow while succeeding, like Lamar Jackson did. Luckily, I have Joe Burrow in one of the leagues and started him over Richardson this week.

• I don’t see much hope for the Colts receivers. Richardson will throw some bombs to Alec Pierce and short stuff to the other guys. Hard to rely on any of them.

• Rome Odunze broke out in the absence of Keenan Allen. Not sure that genie is ever going back in the bottle, so when Allen returns he could just as easily take target share from DJ Moore. Cole Kmet is now a top-five scoring TE by virtue of one good game.

• Facing a soft Colts defense without DeForest Buckner, D’Andre Slug managed 20 yards on 13 carries.

• I had the Texans -2, and the Vikings annihilated them. C.J. Stroud was under pressure all day, never seemed to find any consistency. The silver lining was Stefon Diggs (all five leagues) getting 12 targets, 10 catches and 94 yards. He still has it, and he’s still an alpha.

• I have Sam Darnold and Patrick Mahomes in my Dynasty League and keep making the mistake of starting Mahomes.

• Aaron Jones would go in the second round at worst were we to re-draft for Week 4 on. He hasn’t lost a step, and he’s involved as a receiver too. It’s not obvious to me that Bijan Robinson, for example, will outproduce him. Maybe Robinson has the edge due to youth/durability, but that’s about it.

• I swapped out Jaylen Waddle for Rashid Shaheed this week because Alan Seslowsky told me to. Luckily for him, Waddle didn’t do much.

• The one silver (actually gold, no bitcoin) lining is my NFFC Primetime team. It’s the highest stakes, the most important one, and, knock on wood, it’s loaded. Part of the reason why is I waited forever on TE and took Dallas Goedert who so far is TE1.

• When Saquon Barkley was on the Giants, I would always longshot bet him for OPOTY and to lead the league in rushing TDs or yards. He could do all three on the Eagles.

• So much for Derek Carr and the Saints offense being unstoppable. Even the great Alvin Kamara had a modest day, though 26 carries and three targets is nothing at which to sneeze.

• The Steelers are the opposite of a carnival team, more like a funeral one. Jaylen Warren is behind Cordarrelle Patterson now? Is Mike Tomlin going back to his Le’Veon Bell/DeAngelo Williams, starter-gets-everything days with Najee Harris?

• In one of my bold predictions (a few of which look pretty good), I said Roman Wilson would lead the team in catches. It’s not like George Pickens is going crazy, but it would be nice if Wilson were activated at least.

• Tyler Badie led the Broncos in rushing on nine carries. Wonder if his family ever asked, “Are we the Badies?”

• Jaleel McLaughlin had five carries for seven yards, but his TD run was insane. He was dead to rights with 2-3 defenders having him up against the sideline at the five and showhow he wriggled through them and extended for the score.

• Baker Mayfield vastly overestimates his scrambling ability.

• Chris Godwin is in the right role now, but Mike Evans was shadowed by arguably the league’s best corner (Patrick Surtain.)

• I didn’t watch much of this game, but seems like Bucky Irving is pushing Rachaad White for the early down work?

• Andy Dalton channeled 2023 Joe Flacco and destroyed Bryce Young’s trade value completely.

• Maybe it’s not so much that defenses have solved the modern offense, but that the modern offenses solved the 2015-2021 era defenses with athletic QBs, and now the modern defense has responded to that threat, but can be beaten if you decode what they’re doing. Enter the grizzled journeyman who can do it. Flacco last year, Dalton, Carr (until this week), Cousins (last year), Darnold (who has been around since 2018.) For some reason it has to be a journeyman.

• Diontae Johnson and Chuba Hubbard sure aren’t missing Young. I have a couple Jonathan Brooks shares that suddenly got interesting too.

• Brock Bowers didn’t see much work, but his 21-yard catch showed why he’s going to be great. He caught it in stride and changed directions on a dime, leaving his defender in the dust.

• I should have bet the Seahawks. Of course they were going to kill the Dolphins who were playing without a real QB. It’s not like the Dolphins have a dominant defense to rely on.

• It’s annoying to miss the JSN monster game last week and use him this week but that’s fantasy football.

• I had the Ravens -2, easy peasy, never in doubt.

• The Cowboys need a running back. You can’t drop back 50 times a game.

• Brandon Aubrey drilled a 65-yard FG with room to spare. Honestly he should have gone in like the eighth round.

• Derrick Henry is a health nut apparently. Had I known, I would have taken him in a league or two despite being 29 with 200K miles.

• Zay Flowers is just a garden-variety short-pass catcher. Prove me wrong.

• I feel for Justin Tucker — like a punch-drunk Muhammad Ali fighting Larry Holmes at this point. Even though I faded him this year, I take no joy in seeing it.

• When Sam LaPorta got carted off, I thought — well at least it’s the Christian McCaffrey team. Put them all on one sinking ship. But he returned to put up a monsterous (for TEs) 2-2-36-0 line.

• The boxscore for Jahmyr Gibbs reads zero targets for zero catches, 20 yards and a TD. That hook and ladder was a thing of beauty.

• Where was Jameson Williams all day? Alpha ARSB must have had words with management after Week 1. Jarvis Landy 2.0 — just commands targets!

• Marvin Harrison had a modest day, but they sure do throw to him a ton in the end zone. Trey McBride is just another tight end living hand to mouth these days.