Week 4 Observations

Still annoyed

I don’t know why I’m annoyed. Week 4 was maybe an eight out of 10. Sure, I went 2-2-1 ATS in Circa, but I can’t say I deserved much better. The Chargers were the right side for most of the game and ended in a push, but the Colts barely held on late for me, and the Bengals could have gotten back-doored but did not. I was dead wrong about the Cardinals too. You can’t get mad just because you didn’t get what you had hoped for.

It’s not enough that I’m in first in my Primetime with Jahmyr Gibbs and JSN still to play and second in two of three BCLs (though those teams are done.) I’m 4-0, 3-1, 3-1, respectively, and in first overall in both the Steak League and RotoWire Dynasty. My only bad team is the one where I took Christian McCaffrey at 1.1, and it’s easy to let that go. So what am I annoyed about?

I’m annoyed I passed on Jayden Reed at 5.2 in the Primetime. But I passed on him for Chris Godwin! I really should have taken Reed at 4.11 instead of Tank Dell, but I was too wedded to ADP even to consider it. I didn’t like Dell, but I thought it would be worthwhile to pair him with Stefon Diggs and C.J. Stroud. And by taking Dell, I missed out on Trey McBride (who was my other choice there), and when McBride went with the next pick, I took Godwin at 5.2 and eventually had to settle for Dallas Goedert (TE1) as my TE. Even my mistakes redounded to my benefit, and yet I’m still annoyed.

I’m annoyed I didn’t have a truly epic day in one of the BCLs because JK Dobbins didn’t do much. But I got Dobbins, the starting back on a decent, run-heavy team in the 12th round! And I got Jordan Mason in two leagues late, including the Primetime.

I’m annoyed I have no shares of Jayden Daniels. He was so obvious and so trendy. I took two shares of Anthony Richardson instead. But because Richardson had a bad match-up, I benched him in both leagues, starting Joe Burrow (fine) in one, and Justin Fields (massive) in the other. Think how annoyed I’d have been had Richardson gone off! And I have Fields in three leagues including Steak.

I’m annoyed because I have no shares of Derrick Henry. But I also have no shares of Rashee Rice. Think how annoyed I’d be if my best team were built around Rice! At 2.2 in the Primetime, I considered Rice, but took Marvin Harrison over Cooper Kupp and him. After Week 1, that seemed like a huge mistake, but after Week 4, a huge relief.

If anything I’ve been uncannily lucky so far with respect to injuries, knock on wood, and yet I’m still annoyed. We also won in the Seslowsky Survivor pool because I told him to take the 49ers over the Jets. And yet I’m still annoyed.

Starting to think it’s a “me” issue.

• Not a single player on the Bills had a good game. Josh Allen is great, but he’s really missing that alpha, go-to receiver.

• Call me Nostradamus, but I knew after the first play from scrimmage Derrick Henry would have a good game.

• Justice Hill is much better than I remembered. I thought he was more Just-a-guy Hill, but he looked fast and elusive as a receiver and runner. There is no one else except him and Henry too.

• Lamar Jackson made it look easy, though you have to feel for his non-existent receivers and tight ends. Mark Andrews had one target, dropped it, and Jackson was like, “never again.” Like the Bills, the Ravens have no receivers who have to be involved right now. (I would buy low on Andrews before Flowers personally.)

• Retaining the services of a Younghoe in three leagues made for a pleasant Sunday. Virtually all kickers are great now, it just comes down to opportunities.

• Last year I was annoyed all the time about Arthur Smith’s Bijan Robinson usage. This year, I have zero shares, and it’s fun to see things haven’t changed much under Raheem Morris. I was targeting Bijan late too. I still haven’t ever been blown away while watching him. More of a smooth glider than beast or speed merchant as far as I can tell.

• I’m glad I had the strength to resist Kyle Pitts. Unfortunately it was a 5-6 round decision where I got Richardson and Rhamondre Stevenson, but Richardson, being a QB, is easy to bench, Pitts gets that zero in your lineup each week.

• I said before the year, the difference between Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed was exaggerated. They’re roughly the same size and speed. Yesterday, Shaheed, 11-8-83-0, Olave 10-8-87-0.

• I even started Taysom Hill as my TE in the Dynasty League, but was annoyed he left the game before scoring more touchdowns.

• D’Andre Soft finally went off, but I suspect he was on a lot of people’s benches, as the Bears vowed to get Roschon Johnson more involved. You draft a player’s usable fantasy points, not his season-long stats.

• I didn’t watch much of the game, but why did Caleb Williams not throw to his receivers?

• Kyren Williams can’t hold up at his size with this workload, can he? If he does, he was well worth whatever you paid for him.

• Jayden Reed is a star, and now Christian Watson’s hurt again. Always ignore the “it’s crowded” crowd and draft the best players.

• Jordan Love had a big game, mostly in garbage time, and only took one sack from the rejuvenated Vikings defense.

• Every week I start Patrick Mahomes over Sam Darnold in the Dynasty League, and it’s a mistake. What’s the point of having the most reliable long-term asset in Dynasty if he belongs on your bench?

• It’s funny I drafted (and dropped) the Giants defense everywhere because their first two games were home against Darnold and at Washington for a rookie QB’s second start. Little did I know that was like Joe Montana and Steve Young.

• Justin Jefferson always gets his, though game flow wasn’t ideal for the passing game. The Vikings should get T.J. Hockenson back soon too.

• Imagine you had a hunch the Colts would cover, so you took them in Circa at only +1.5, but you also started Justin Fields over Anthony Richardson, so you needed the Colts to cover (basically win) while the Steelers QB had the better game. That’s the situation I was in, and the game threaded that needle perfectly.

• Fields needs to be turned loose as a runner, and he finally was when the Steelers got behind. No reason to wait until that happens. He’s a top-five fantasy QB if they do that.

• Joe Flacco wasn’t elite when he said it originally, but he is now. (Flacco was taken in the same class as Matt Ryan in 2008.) Accordingly, Michael Pittman and Josh Downs are usable until Richardson returns.

• The Eagles had nothing without their top two receivers. Goedert is better off with one of them healthy.

• Rachaad White and Bucky Irving are in a timeshare.

• QBs don’t matter. You can just pick up Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Justin Fields, Sam Darnold, Andy Dalton or Joe Flacco off the scrap heap, and you’re fine. Whatever you do, never *draft* a QB, unless it’s Jayden Daniels.

• Ja’Marr Chase salvaged his day with an insane short catch and long tackle-breaking run for a TD, but you have to get your best player more than six targets. Tee Higgins (10 targets) is healthy again at least.

• Zach Moss and Chase Brown are in a 50/50 timeshare. Both look capable to me.

• The Bengals can’t cover or tackle anyone.

• Dalton played well for the second straight week. I ignored Xavier Legette in drafts, but he’s the clear No. 2, and he’s got the size and speed.

• The Texans offensive line is penalty-making machine. I’ve never seen anything like it. False start, illegal shift, holding, you name it. It’s amazing CJ Stroud was able to muster any drives at all.

• Cam Akers doesn’t have vision or make the most of his runs.

• I should have drafted Nico Collins at 3.2 instead of Diggs. Diggs has been more than fine, don’t get me wrong, but Collins, who was everywhere, is a top-five receiver.

• Travis Etienne was on the sidelines early in the game, and the broadcast said it wasn’t injury related, but later it was reported he had a shoulder injury. He was outgained by Tank Bigsby who looked quick on a couple runs. Etienne has always had the talent, but it’s hasn’t quite come together, in part due to a dysfunctional Jaguars offense.

• Trevor Lawrence should have had a massive day, but he missed two deep throws to wide open receivers (Brian Thomas and Christian Kirk.) Thomas looks like a star to me.

• The Washington Indigenous Peoples might be the best offense in the league right now. Jeremy McNichols looked great filling in for Austin Ekeler, running through huge holes, and Brian Robinson and Daniels did damage on the ground too. If you complete 26 of 30 passes and rush for 216 yards as a team, that means almost every single play from scrimmage was successful.

• The Cardinals looked good the first two weeks and terrible the last two. Kyler Murray is fully healthy two years off the ACL tear, but he’s not scrambling at all. They snapped the ball to him in shotgun on 4th-and-1 too, rather than having him sneak or hand it off. They’re something way off.

• James Conner looked strong, despite the bad game flow.

• You almost can’t start anyone on the Pats. Maybe Rhamondre, but he’s one fumble away from being benched in the second quarter.

• Jordan Mason will see a heavy workload every week, and he’s made some plays in the passing game. The 49ers passing offense still isn’t quite right, and they finally had everyone back (except McCaffrey.)

• I’m glad the Browns lost. They’re the most unwatchable team in the league right now, and there’s no upside whatsoever with a cooked Deshaun Watson, no matter how you massage it.

• I’m glad I faded Zamir White (Round 7) unfortunately again for Richardson. He’s sluggish, and they gave the TDs to DJ Turner and Tre Tucker!

• Brock Bowers has been awfully quiet the last couple weeks. He had one bad drop early, but with Davante Adams out, get him the ball!

• The Chargers had a four and out at the Chiefs three near the end, and it cost them the game, but more importantly the cover. Why are teams throwing so often on 4th-and-1?

• The Rashee Rice injury is massive. If he’s out for the year, Travis Kelce owners will get their money’s worth. Maybe Xavier Worthy too, if he turns out to be more than a one-trick pony. Is he more Tyreek Hill or Mecole Hardman?

• It’s amazing the Chiefs lost Hollywood Brown, Isaiah Pacheco AND now Rice. But Patrick Mahomes is going to grind this out like last year, and why wouldn’t he? The Chiefs are 4-0.

• Kareem Hunt is the obvious starter in KC after Carson Steele fumbled. Hunt looked good too.

• Ladd McConkey is a player. The rest of the Chargers pass-catchers, not so much.