I do this every year, and every year I get at least one correct. Last year, I got three correct, including the surefire prediction that not all of them would be right. But that just goes to show how bold they were. The fewer you get correct, the bolder they were!
(Actually, probably better to just link to all of them for full transparency: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014.) I’m not going to argue it matters, or that anyone even clicks through on these, but no one has a more organized archive of his work than I do.)
Okay, without further ado, here are this year’s:
The Patriots miss the playoffs.
The Super Bowl loser hangover is real. Even the dynastic Chiefs missed the playoffs last year after losing to the Eagles. The prior year the 49ers went 6-11 after losing to the Chiefs. The year before that the Eagles made the playoffs, but collapsed down the stretch losing six of seven including the Wild Card game. The last team to survive the Super Bowl curse was the Bengals who went 12-4 and lost in the AFC title game to the Chiefs. The curse isn’t absolute, but it’s probably real in the sense of having to play that many games, finish the season that late on an emotional gut punch. It doesn’t help the Pats won’t have quite the cupcake schedule and their coach was busted this offseason for banging the slutty reporter, either.
Justin Jefferson (ADP 10) outperforms Puka Nacua (ADP4) by a wide enough margin that no math is necessary.
Nacua is a beast when he’s on the field, but accusations (true or not) from his ex, and a nagging groin/psoas muscle make him an awfully risky pick at No. 4 overall, and that’s before considering his Cam Skattebo-esque style of play. Jefferson is a Hall of Fame level receiver at age 27, who gets a bad but at least NFL-level QB back in a good system. It wasn’t long ago the debate was Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase at 1.1.
One of the following teams makes the playoffs this year: Titans, Jets, Dolphins, Browns, Raiders, Cardinals or Falcons.
This one is probably closer to 50/50 than a “bold” pick, but all of these teams are projected for win totals of 6.5 or less.
Bo Nix (ADP 135) outproduces Joe Burrow this year (ADP 73)
Nix led the NFL in attempts last year with 612 and scored five rushing TDs, after scoring four as a rookie. The Broncos also added Jaylen Waddle this offseason. The Bengals have one good receiver and one Hall of Famer, but Burrow won’t run, there’s no depth behind them, and he’s one of the most fragile QBs in the league.
Tetairoa McMillan (ADP 34) outproduces Chris Olave (ADP 19)
Give me the second-year growth guy with little competition for targets over the concussion risk who will have to fend off the No. 8 overall pick during the second half of the season.
Josh Jacobs leads the Packers in rushing by more than 200 yards
I read a lot of sorry takes a couple weeks ago when Jacobs got put on the exempt list, suggesting he was done for the year or forever when it happened. If that were the case, why was he still getting paid by the Packers, and why was he still around the team’s facility even though he was barred from practicing? Plainly the team had not seen a Ray-Rice level video, and it’s likely the league hadn’t, either. Moreover, if law enforcement has such a video, why did they only bring a misdemeanor charge? Could something still emerge? Sure, but if not, Jacobs is a good bet for 200 carries this year, the purportedly reanimated carcass of Marshawn Lloyd notwithstanding.
Chuba Hubbard (ADP103) has more carries and receptions than Jonathon Brooks (ADP 76)
I grabbed a share of Brooks in the Primetime, but that he is still dealing with “soreness” in September after such a long layoff isn’t a good sign. It’s too bad beat reporters no longer serve any useful function, or we might actually know what kind of soreness it is and whether it involves his surgically repaired knee. In any event, while I hope to be wrong, Hubbard who is nothing special should be considered the heavy favorite for opportunities.
Jayden Reed (ADP 84) outproduces Marvin Harrison (ADP 56)
Reed is always hurt, but he’s healthy now, Romeo Doubs and Dontavion Wicks are gone, Christian Watson isn’t exactly a paragon of durability himself, Tucker Kraft is coming off an ACL tear and Josh Jacobs could miss some games with a suspension. Reed is a good player who should finally see opportunities commensurate with his skills. Harrison didn’t show much growth from Year 1 to Year 2, and it’s obvious Michael Wilson has more upside. In any event, both are at best second fiddles to Trey McBride.
Kyle Pitts (TE 9) will put up a top-3 season in PPR
Tight ends are often late bloomers, and Pitts, still just 25, showed at the end of last year he’s capable of diverging from the OJ Howard career path. This year he has only Drake London with whom to compete for targets. Even if Tua Tagovailoa is cooked and Michael Vagenix below average, the Falcons will attempt ~500 passes, at least 130 of which should go to a healthy Pitts.
Some of these predictions will be wrong
No one’s perfect, but you never want to get shut out.
In Puca’s case, was it the groin or the ex-girlfriend that was nagging?
I'll fade you on #4. The Bengals schedule is soft and their defense will be terrible. They will have to try and score lots of points. Of course, I have equal shares of Burrow and Nix this year, so I'm hoping they're both good.