A Few Bets

I wanted to place some bets, but couldn’t get DraftKings to sort out my defunct RotoWire email issue, so I had to figure out another solution. I actually called my brother whose daughters are 15 and 17 to see if one of them would log in as me on DK, deposit money from my bank account and do it for me from NY, but he said his wife wouldn’t want them getting into betting!

I also asked a good friend of mine who said the same with his 15 and 18 year old boys. FFS, my grandfather had me betting games with him on the phone when I was six, and I turned out just fine! (I asked about the kids because I figured they’d have time, tech savvy and curiosity, whereas my brother or friend would be too much of a pain to corral for 45 minutes and walk them through it all.)

I could have asked friends from my old job, but it’s a bit much to task them with getting into my bank account, and while they’d happily place the bets for me themselves, you start getting into tax issues if one of the long shot ones actually hits. So I went with the only solution I could think of, and that was an offshore book that’s actually legal from Portugal I’m pretty sure.

So far, here are the bets I made:

I’ll just discuss the Props though I was also able to join low buy-in, high-payout Survivor and SuperContests which is good too.

For starters, I don’t know if these are good odds. I didn’t shop around because I don’t want to give my personal info to more than one sketchy offshore book, so I got one recommendation and ran with it. If someone else gives me others, I’ll consider another one, but this is it for now.

I meant to do $50 on Barkley to win OPOTY, but I must have hit submit accidentally three times. That’s fine — real man goes big on Saquon. Non-QBs often win offensive player of the year because QBs always win MVP. Saquon is playing for his contract, in a good offense, and he’s completely healthy. (It was also only 35:1 at Circa in July.)

I also took Barkley for $50 to lead the league in rushing TDs at 20:1. Not many other backs are in good offenses with scant competition for goal line carries. Certainly none fetching 20:1.

Daniel Jones for MVP seems a little light to me at 50:1, and now that I’m looking back it was 70:1 in July at Circa. Still, I think Jones is good, he finally has some weapons and a first-rate system. A QB will almost certainly win this award, and there are only 15 or so players who could really do it.

The Giants were 60:1 in July on Circa, but I’ll take 52:1 grudgingly. They should be more like 40:1 in my book, given they won a playoff game last year, and they’re a young defense on the rise.

Pats to win the NFC East were 9:1 this summer, and I accepted a small bet at +830. In Belichick I still trust.

I meant to bet only $50 on Marvin Mims winning the rookie receiving yards title, but I must have hit that twice too. Jerry Jeudy is already hurt, and I don’t think much of Courtland Sutton. There aren’t more than 7-8 guys who can win this, and Mims is one.

I meant to throw $50 on Travis Etienne, but must have clicked twice there too at 75:1 for OPOTY. Matt Modica pointed me to some good data from RotoViz’s Shawn Siegele about how Etienne is a close comp to peak Jamaal Charles. I’m not entirely sold, but it was well argued, and for $50 (and accidentally $100) it was worth a shot at these odds.

I wanted to bet Calvin Ridley for most receiving yards, but I was annoyed it was at 52:1 in July and like 33:1 or something here. I changed it up for Comeback Player Of The Year for similar odds, and a narrower field. Of course, if Damar Hamlin survives the season they’ll probably give it to him and have Pfizer sponsor the proceedings, while Ridley will face longer odds given the reason he needs to make a comeback. But don’t underestimate the mental illness/depression angle for Ridley which they can play up if he smashes this year. And yes, I am that cynical and more when it comes to the CBPOTY award in the NFL, even though I do not consider myself a cynical person generally.

Finally, my favorite bet is Chris Godwin for most receiving yards at $70:1. I put in $90 because that was all the money I had left in my deposit, but he’s a sneaky bet to be among the league leaders in targets, as Mike Evans is the only other game in town, and he’s getting old and is already dinged up.

I’ll still do a summary post of all my bets/pools and investments before the start of the regular season so I can do a proper profit/loss accounting like last year.