It’s time to grade my preseason “bold” MLB predictions. They were, I’d say, even worse than usual. For point of reference, here are last year’s and the year before.
Mookie Betts finishes top-10 in NL MVP voting Betts was the 24th NL hitter by ADP, and of course, a few pitchers could get votes too. I faded Betts, who lost 15 pounds off a 180-pound frame last year due to a spring training illness, and I’m buying back in now that he’s himself again. Shoo-in Hall of Famers typically don’t fall off a cliff at age 33.
Verdict: False. He started slow, got hurt, and though he came on strong down the stretch, he won’t be close to top-10. (0-1)
Adley Rutschman (ADP C11) finishes as a top-five fantasy catcher.
This is where he was drafted the last few years, and last year was marred by various injuries. He’s still the same guy and at 28 is in his prime.
Verdict: False. He also got hurt, but he was just so-so, and there were a bunch of catchers who had monster years. (0-2)
Kevin Gausman finishes top-five in AL Cy Young votes
This is a slight cheat since Gausman had a strong first outing, but if we were to re-run drafts today with 2026 stats included, he’s still going behind Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert, Hunter Brown, Max Fried and others. I love veteran pitchers who have figured out their craft, and Gausman is one of them.
Verdict: False. Gausman’s K:BB numbers were good again, but he got shelled for a 4.51 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, and in any event was traded out of the AL midseason. (0-3)
Teoscar Hernandez cracks 35 homers in 2026 He had only 25 last year and is now 33, but Dodger Stadium is a favorable home run park, Hernandez played through a nagging groin injury and he hits in a lineup where pitchers will often have labored by the time he comes to the plate.
Verdict: False. He also got hurt but even when healthy was not on pace for anything close to 35. (0-4)
George Springer (OF 23) finishes as a top-10 OF again in 2026
Springer has always been fragile, so it’s probably not a coincidence his best year came as the team’s primary DH. Preserve health and the production should continue into his age 36 season a la David Ortiz and Nelson Cruz.
Verdict: False. He went back to his scrubby, injury prone ways as though 2025 never happened. (0-5)
At least one of the following veteran pitchers has a top-seven CY finish: Carlos Rodon, Gerrit Cole, Sandy Alcantara, Shane Bieber, Luis Castillo, Aaron Nola, Zac Gallen and Blake Snell.
I made it top seven, not top-five because so many of these guys are missing significant time, but Cole, Bieber, Snell or Rodon might crack top-seven in four months if they return to 100 percent right away.
Verdict: False. No one was really close among this bunch. (0-6)
Kenley Jansen (RP 16), Josh Hader (RP 19) or Raisel Iglesias (RP 12) will finish top-three in saves. I love the old warhorse closers, and I would’ve included Aroldis Chapman were he not drafted so highly this year.
Verdict: False. Iglesias finished eighth with 34, Hader 13th with 26 and Jansen 17th with 22. (0-7)
Casey Mize (Rd 19) outperforms Eury Perez (Rd 5)
Slow and steady wins the race.
Verdict: False. Mize was winning at one point, but collapsed down the stretch, while Perez saved his best outing for last. (0-8)
Brent Rooker hits 40 HR
Rooker hit 39 two years ago in Oakland Coliseum, only 15 of which were at home, so 40 shouldn’t be a stretch in Sacramento if he has a 70th percentile season.
Verdict: False. Rooker got hurt early in the year and managed only 10 HR in 48 games. (0-9)
Some of these predictions will turn out to be wrong
I’ll pay the cost of never going 10-for-10 to make sure I don’t go 0-for-10.
Verdict: Boy did I nail this one, the logic and execution. True! (1-9)
Great article!
real projections!