Week 17 Observations

I’m a little under the weather, so this one might be brief. Had some British friends over for New Year’s, forced the dude (who mostly likes Premier League and rugby) to sit in the office living room with me watching games, while Heather and his wife drank wine, ate cheese and beef stew and chatted with each other. Sasha’s best friend is their daughter, so it all worked out, except for their seven-year old son, but he got a Nintendo for Christmas and played it until it ran out of batteries. The low point was when I made the dude watch five minutes of Lawrence Taylor highlights on Youtube, but he was a good sport about it.

My Primetime team was up to 20th overall after CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott played Saturday, but fell well short of cashing in the overall yesterday, finishing in 66th with 145.25 points. I would have needed 107 more points to win the overall, which meant 252 total, and that’s not counting the boost those extra points would have given to my competitors too. The cash line was only 37 points away, again assuming I scored 182 and no one else in range benefitted. I’m not upset — my team was very lucky to have gotten into the postseason in the first place, and I’m happy enough to have cashed in the Primetime the last three years.

My ATS picks weren’t bad — 3-2, and the losses were close ones with the Cowboys and Colts, while the wins were decisive (Texans, Ravens and Giants.)

My Steak League team did just enough, and while I still need to avoid a no-show there next week, I’m likely at worst a self-buyer.

Finally, in my home picking pool, I’m one game out, but there are about five of us within a game or two, so I’ll need to go 10-6 at a minimum to take it down and maybe better.

I usually do well in the season’s final week ATS because it seems there’s often a misperception about teams that “have nothing to play for.”

ESPN’s Mike Clay posted this today, and it’s useful. The key IMO is to bet on “eliminated” teams facing “HIGH” motivation ones. The market often seems to put the eliminated in the same bucket as the “NONE” teams that are resting players, and that’s a mistake. More often than not, the eliminated are playing for jobs, pride and just the enjoyment of the game, and the lack of pressure and the opportunity to bounce a rival sometimes serves as a boost.

• It was annoying finding out the Lions went for two after the penalty because I wanted more fantasy points from overtime. I don’t care about the controversy on the call — ref bullshit is the dullest part about the NFL, and it’s been amplified enough already.

• I told you to avoid Raheem Mostert and Christian McCaffrey — dudes just can’t stay healthy!

• I agonized all day about subbing in Jerry Jeudy (no Courtland Sutton, no Denzel Mims, Russell Wilson benched, great matchup) for Evan Engram (no Trevor Lawrence, tough matchup against the Panthers), but used restraint and stuck with Engram. Never Jeudy is almost always right even if it was only the difference of 3.6 points.

• Real man held onto Rashaad Penny (active for Week 17!) all year.

• I enjoyed the Giants game, but had to take a walk to the kitchen when Tyrod Taylor fumbled the snap on 4th-and-1. Taylor is pretty good, probably a top-20-ish real life QB, but can’t stay healthy and is too old now to build around.

• I made the joke that Patrick Mahomes is going down the Russell Wilson career path. The Chiefs dropped a bunch of his passes yet again and had to settle for just enough field goals to cover. I’m not worried about Mahomes, but they should probably have picked The Cheetah over Travis Kelce.

• I made my annual bet with Jeff Erickson a few weeks ago: I pick four teams and he gets the field. I have the 49ers, Ravens, Cowboys and Chiefs. Not sure who’d I swap out even now if I had the chance. If you say swap the Cowboys or Chiefs for the Bills, realize the Bills might not even make the playoffs. If they lose at Miami, the Steelers win against a resting Ravens squad and the Jaguars beat the Titans, they’re out. So they essentially have to win a road qualifying game not to have a 50 percent chance of getting bounced.

• The Chiefs looked good in the second half to me, their inability to score a TD notwithstanding. I much prefer them in January weather in places like Baltimore to the Dolphins. (The Dolphins would get two home games if they beat the Bills though.)

• The Cowboys and Eagles don’t seem like serious contenders, and neither do the Lions. The 49ers are the only team I could see coming out of the NFC, though maybe the Rams have some upside for a wild card run, their narrow win against the Giants notwithstanding.

• I learned today Jordan Love has 30 TD passes on the year. Had you asked me, top of the head, to guess, I might have said 23.

• Lamar Jackson is obviously the MVP now, barring a surprise appearance on Epstein’s client list, should it actually be released as promised this week. Two MVPs is Hall of Fame probably, and if he wins a Super Bowl, he’s obviously a lock.